Thanks to all for the kind words going forward... I didn't want this to turn into a drama filled thread but I guess it kind of has..
Lets discuss Sports insights a little bit
1.) SI is a tool, it does not tell you who is going to win the game... The public wins. Just because 80% is on one side does not mean the 20% side is going to win!
2.) Look at the smart money angle.... If a team starts of as a +140 underdog and quickly drops to +130/+125 sharp money has hit the underdog. People on here can dispute the relevance of sharps, but they do exist.. They are the customers that books allow to bet at the lines as soon/or before they release lines to the public...
3.) Do not get caught in the steam.... Lines are sometimes artificially inflated so the big dolllars can by back for double (or more) before gametime... If you see a cubs/Yankees/Red sox line inflate like crazy, it is probably a steam move... Sharps rarely (if ever) are laying moderate to big chalk... If one of these lines moves from -120 to -140 be very wary of a buy back... You might see a huge drop back to the low -120's before gametime... These steam moves and buy backs usually happen in primetime events...
4.) If there is falling out in the price before game time, most likely it is sharp money... I am a firm believer that books take positions on games... Square money is not moving lines... Of course books would love to have an arbitrage and have 50-50 action but that is not realistic... That is why they let sharps bet lines early for small dollar ammounts...
5.) Learn to how the money flows.... Yankees/cubs/Red sox are almost always overpriced.... Orioles/D-rays/Kansas city/and washington will almost always be underpriced... Markets tend to correct themselves when baseball becomes the only game in town...
6.) learn money flow on your own... The above statements are tools that I have used in the past... This season I have a strong feeling that the Orioles will be the most undervalued team in the bigs... The Cubs and Red sox will probably be the most overvalued... However, each individual should chart money flow on a daily basis... Maybe you will find teams that are constantly overpriced (best guess Tigers)... Maybe you will find teams that are constantly underpriced ( good guess Pirates/cincy)...
I have had a few coctails so this should be a good base line... If I could elaborate more in depth I should be around for a little bit as I have a genuine passion to help others... Eventually this thread will die, but as long as I am around I don't mind to help...
Thanks to all for the kind words going forward... I didn't want this to turn into a drama filled thread but I guess it kind of has..
Lets discuss Sports insights a little bit
1.) SI is a tool, it does not tell you who is going to win the game... The public wins. Just because 80% is on one side does not mean the 20% side is going to win!
2.) Look at the smart money angle.... If a team starts of as a +140 underdog and quickly drops to +130/+125 sharp money has hit the underdog. People on here can dispute the relevance of sharps, but they do exist.. They are the customers that books allow to bet at the lines as soon/or before they release lines to the public...
3.) Do not get caught in the steam.... Lines are sometimes artificially inflated so the big dolllars can by back for double (or more) before gametime... If you see a cubs/Yankees/Red sox line inflate like crazy, it is probably a steam move... Sharps rarely (if ever) are laying moderate to big chalk... If one of these lines moves from -120 to -140 be very wary of a buy back... You might see a huge drop back to the low -120's before gametime... These steam moves and buy backs usually happen in primetime events...
4.) If there is falling out in the price before game time, most likely it is sharp money... I am a firm believer that books take positions on games... Square money is not moving lines... Of course books would love to have an arbitrage and have 50-50 action but that is not realistic... That is why they let sharps bet lines early for small dollar ammounts...
5.) Learn to how the money flows.... Yankees/cubs/Red sox are almost always overpriced.... Orioles/D-rays/Kansas city/and washington will almost always be underpriced... Markets tend to correct themselves when baseball becomes the only game in town...
6.) learn money flow on your own... The above statements are tools that I have used in the past... This season I have a strong feeling that the Orioles will be the most undervalued team in the bigs... The Cubs and Red sox will probably be the most overvalued... However, each individual should chart money flow on a daily basis... Maybe you will find teams that are constantly overpriced (best guess Tigers)... Maybe you will find teams that are constantly underpriced ( good guess Pirates/cincy)...
I have had a few coctails so this should be a good base line... If I could elaborate more in depth I should be around for a little bit as I have a genuine passion to help others... Eventually this thread will die, but as long as I am around I don't mind to help...
go figure I don't play and would have cashed 7.35 units, maybe a little less for the non aggressive biders...
Don't care to toot my own horn, but I am just trying to show that through solid research and money management there is money to be made, especilally in the first two months of the season....
Best of luck to all!
go figure I don't play and would have cashed 7.35 units, maybe a little less for the non aggressive biders...
Don't care to toot my own horn, but I am just trying to show that through solid research and money management there is money to be made, especilally in the first two months of the season....
Best of luck to all!
go figure I don't play and would have cashed 7.35 units, maybe a little less for the non aggressive biders...
Don't care to toot my own horn, but I am just trying to show that through solid research and money management there is money to be made, especilally in the first two months of the season....
Best of luck to all!
" If INCOME doesn't match OUTGO, Your UPKEEP will be your DOWNFALL."
go figure I don't play and would have cashed 7.35 units, maybe a little less for the non aggressive biders...
Don't care to toot my own horn, but I am just trying to show that through solid research and money management there is money to be made, especilally in the first two months of the season....
Best of luck to all!
" If INCOME doesn't match OUTGO, Your UPKEEP will be your DOWNFALL."
If you choose to make use of any information on this website including online sports betting services from any websites that may be featured on this website, we strongly recommend that you carefully check your local laws before doing so. It is your sole responsibility to understand your local laws and observe them strictly. Covers does not provide any advice or guidance as to the legality of online sports betting or other online gambling activities within your jurisdiction and you are responsible for complying with laws that are applicable to you in your relevant locality. Covers disclaims all liability associated with your use of this website and use of any information contained on it. As a condition of using this website, you agree to hold the owner of this website harmless from any claims arising from your use of any services on any third party website that may be featured by Covers.