Monday, January 28, 2013 through Friday, February 1, 2013
118 Games 236 Teams 0 Pushes on Original Spread 37 Games Finished 0.5 to 3 points From Original Spread
Virginia -0.5 Miami (OH) -0.5 Miami -0.5 Appalachian St. -0.5 Arizona -0.5 San Jose St. -0.5 Iona -0.5 Samford -0.5 Youngstown St. -0.5 Northern Iowa -1 UNLV -1 Temple -1 FSU -1 St. Peters -1 Montana St. -1 Rider -1 Will & Mary -1.5 Nebraska -1.5 Memphis -1.5 S. Florida -2 St. John -2 Mississippi -2 Cal Poly SLO -2 Santa Barbara -2 Providence -2 UCSB -2 Dayton -2.5 Wyoming -2.5 NC Greensboro -2.5 Louisville -3 Kansas -3 Clemson -3 Wisconsin -3 Notre Dame -3 Alabama -3 Cal Riverside -3 S. Dakota St. -3
ATS
Spreads and Covers taken from VegasInsider.com because they don't post
the Division 2 and Division 3 games that didn't even have a line out,
hence less sifting through games for my data.
Buy 0.5 Point (-120) 9 Loss to a Push (3.81%) 0 Pushes to a Win (0.0%) 3.81% of total bets affected by buying 0.5 points
Buy 1 Point (-130) 7 Loss to a Push (2.97%) 9 Loss to a Win (3.81%) 6.78% of total bets affected by buying 1 point
Buy 1.5 Points (-140) 3 Pushes (1.27%) 16 Wins (6.78%) 8.05% of total bets affected by buying 1.5 points
Buy 2 Points (-155) 7 Pushes (2.97%) 19 Wins (8.05%) 11.02% of total bets affected by buying 2 points
Buy 2.5 Points (-175) 3 Pushes (1.27%) 26 Wins(11.02%) 12.29% of total bets affected by buying 2.5 points
Buy 3 Points (-195) 8 Push (3.39%) 29 Wins (12.29%) 15.68% of total bets affected by buying 3 points
Monday, January 28, 2013 through Friday, February 1, 2013
118 Games 236 Teams 0 Pushes on Original Spread 37 Games Finished 0.5 to 3 points From Original Spread
Virginia -0.5 Miami (OH) -0.5 Miami -0.5 Appalachian St. -0.5 Arizona -0.5 San Jose St. -0.5 Iona -0.5 Samford -0.5 Youngstown St. -0.5 Northern Iowa -1 UNLV -1 Temple -1 FSU -1 St. Peters -1 Montana St. -1 Rider -1 Will & Mary -1.5 Nebraska -1.5 Memphis -1.5 S. Florida -2 St. John -2 Mississippi -2 Cal Poly SLO -2 Santa Barbara -2 Providence -2 UCSB -2 Dayton -2.5 Wyoming -2.5 NC Greensboro -2.5 Louisville -3 Kansas -3 Clemson -3 Wisconsin -3 Notre Dame -3 Alabama -3 Cal Riverside -3 S. Dakota St. -3
ATS
Spreads and Covers taken from VegasInsider.com because they don't post
the Division 2 and Division 3 games that didn't even have a line out,
hence less sifting through games for my data.
Buy 0.5 Point (-120) 9 Loss to a Push (3.81%) 0 Pushes to a Win (0.0%) 3.81% of total bets affected by buying 0.5 points
Buy 1 Point (-130) 7 Loss to a Push (2.97%) 9 Loss to a Win (3.81%) 6.78% of total bets affected by buying 1 point
Buy 1.5 Points (-140) 3 Pushes (1.27%) 16 Wins (6.78%) 8.05% of total bets affected by buying 1.5 points
Buy 2 Points (-155) 7 Pushes (2.97%) 19 Wins (8.05%) 11.02% of total bets affected by buying 2 points
Buy 2.5 Points (-175) 3 Pushes (1.27%) 26 Wins(11.02%) 12.29% of total bets affected by buying 2.5 points
Buy 3 Points (-195) 8 Push (3.39%) 29 Wins (12.29%) 15.68% of total bets affected by buying 3 points
\/------------UPDATED STATS AFTER ADDING ABOVE GAMES------------\/
THE LAST 14 DAYS OF NCAA BASKETBALL GAMES:
SATURDAY, JANUARY 19, 2013 THROUGH FRIDAY, FEBRUARY 1, 2013
478 Games 956 Teams 5 Original Spreads Were Originally Pushes 115 Games Covered Between 0.5 to 3 Points of Original Spreads
ATS
Spreads and Covers taken from VegasInsider.com because they don't post
the Division 2 and Division 3 games that didn't even have a line out,
hence less sifting through games for my data.
Buy 0.5 Point (-120) 24 Loss to a Push (2.51%) 5 Pushes to a Win (0.52%) 3.03% of total bets affected by buying 0.5 points
Buy 1 Point (-130) 27 Loss to a Push (2.82%) 29 Loss to a Win (3.03%) 5.85% of total bets affected by buying 1 point
Buy 1.5 Points (-140) 9 Pushes (0.94%) 56 Wins (5.86%) 6.8% of total bets affected by buying 1.5 points
Buy 2 Points (-155) 18 Pushes (1.88%) 65 Wins (6.80%) 8.68% of total bets affected by buying 2 points
Buy 2.5 Points (-175) 19 Pushes (1.99%) 83 Wins(8.68%) 10.67% of total bets affected by buying 2.5 points
Buy 3 Points (-195) 18 Pushes (1.88%) 102 Wins (10.67%) 12.55% of total bets affected by buying 3 points
On
3 points, on average 12.55% of bets that normally would have been a
loss would be either a push or a win, but on the other 87.45% of the
bets (regardless of win or lose), you are losing 77% MORE MONEY than
"normal juiced" bet on the original spread of -110.
Paying 77% more for only 12.55% insurance!
If you think a game is going to be THAT CLOSE to the original spread that you want to buy points, why are you even thinking of betting on the game?!?!?THERE ARE BETTER BETS ON THE BOARD!!!!!
\/------------UPDATED STATS AFTER ADDING ABOVE GAMES------------\/
THE LAST 14 DAYS OF NCAA BASKETBALL GAMES:
SATURDAY, JANUARY 19, 2013 THROUGH FRIDAY, FEBRUARY 1, 2013
478 Games 956 Teams 5 Original Spreads Were Originally Pushes 115 Games Covered Between 0.5 to 3 Points of Original Spreads
ATS
Spreads and Covers taken from VegasInsider.com because they don't post
the Division 2 and Division 3 games that didn't even have a line out,
hence less sifting through games for my data.
Buy 0.5 Point (-120) 24 Loss to a Push (2.51%) 5 Pushes to a Win (0.52%) 3.03% of total bets affected by buying 0.5 points
Buy 1 Point (-130) 27 Loss to a Push (2.82%) 29 Loss to a Win (3.03%) 5.85% of total bets affected by buying 1 point
Buy 1.5 Points (-140) 9 Pushes (0.94%) 56 Wins (5.86%) 6.8% of total bets affected by buying 1.5 points
Buy 2 Points (-155) 18 Pushes (1.88%) 65 Wins (6.80%) 8.68% of total bets affected by buying 2 points
Buy 2.5 Points (-175) 19 Pushes (1.99%) 83 Wins(8.68%) 10.67% of total bets affected by buying 2.5 points
Buy 3 Points (-195) 18 Pushes (1.88%) 102 Wins (10.67%) 12.55% of total bets affected by buying 3 points
On
3 points, on average 12.55% of bets that normally would have been a
loss would be either a push or a win, but on the other 87.45% of the
bets (regardless of win or lose), you are losing 77% MORE MONEY than
"normal juiced" bet on the original spread of -110.
Paying 77% more for only 12.55% insurance!
If you think a game is going to be THAT CLOSE to the original spread that you want to buy points, why are you even thinking of betting on the game?!?!?THERE ARE BETTER BETS ON THE BOARD!!!!!
People on these forums have brought up that "they only pick the games
that matter" as if they are psychic or something, but in the reality of
the situation, IT DOESN'T MATTER HOW YOU BUY THEM,...BUYING ANY AMOUNT OF POINTS IN ANY SITUATION IN ANY FORM OF BASKETBALL HAS A NEGATIVE EFFECT TO YOUR BANK ROLL.
A
few people stated that they "only buy the hook" or half point, whereas
the 0.5 point data shows that there is NO advantage to only buying 0.5
points as compared to any other amount. The bottom line is that the
amount of added juice you pay on your bets IS NOT GREATER than the
amount of money "saved" by extra wins or pushes.
A
few people have believed that "only buying points on games that have
low ORIGINAL SPREADS" as compared to buying points on games with higher
original spreads is profitable...BUT after doing statistical data on
games of PUSH to 3 points of original spread and then buying 0.5 to 3
points on them, showed NO difference in probabilities or anything near
being profitable.
A
few people have thought that "buying games to 7 points" was profitable
to them where 7 points is a "3-score game" and teams "give-up" at that
number, the stats and research STILL said that buying points was
ANYTHING NEAR being PROFITABLE.
Though the stats DID
show that MORE BETS were affected by buying points to 7 than buying to 6
or 8 points (approximately twice as much chances), it DID NOT SHOW A HIGH ENOUGH PROBABILITY to SAVE MORE MONEY through more pushes and wins THAN THE ADDED JUICE PAID ON ALL BETS.
People on these forums have brought up that "they only pick the games
that matter" as if they are psychic or something, but in the reality of
the situation, IT DOESN'T MATTER HOW YOU BUY THEM,...BUYING ANY AMOUNT OF POINTS IN ANY SITUATION IN ANY FORM OF BASKETBALL HAS A NEGATIVE EFFECT TO YOUR BANK ROLL.
A
few people stated that they "only buy the hook" or half point, whereas
the 0.5 point data shows that there is NO advantage to only buying 0.5
points as compared to any other amount. The bottom line is that the
amount of added juice you pay on your bets IS NOT GREATER than the
amount of money "saved" by extra wins or pushes.
A
few people have believed that "only buying points on games that have
low ORIGINAL SPREADS" as compared to buying points on games with higher
original spreads is profitable...BUT after doing statistical data on
games of PUSH to 3 points of original spread and then buying 0.5 to 3
points on them, showed NO difference in probabilities or anything near
being profitable.
A
few people have thought that "buying games to 7 points" was profitable
to them where 7 points is a "3-score game" and teams "give-up" at that
number, the stats and research STILL said that buying points was
ANYTHING NEAR being PROFITABLE.
Though the stats DID
show that MORE BETS were affected by buying points to 7 than buying to 6
or 8 points (approximately twice as much chances), it DID NOT SHOW A HIGH ENOUGH PROBABILITY to SAVE MORE MONEY through more pushes and wins THAN THE ADDED JUICE PAID ON ALL BETS.
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