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Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: My System Results. Now what... ?
Tad send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
Tad
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#1
Posted: 9/7/2013 10:35:17 AM
I went public with my MLB system this year... and I had great success every month, and I'm way, way ahead for the season. My results:

Overall Season Totals

System: 45-2 (95.83%)
Overall: 45-33 (57.69%)
Profit: 42.06 units
ROI: 27.97%

By month:

April
System: 6-0 (100%)
Overall: 6-8 (42.86%)
Profit: 8.02 units
ROI: 22.43%

May
System: 8-1 (88.89%)
Overall: 8-8 (50%)
Profit: 3.70 units
ROI: 13.72%

June
System: 7-0 (100%)
Overall: 7-5 (58.33%)
Profit: 7.14 units
ROI: 31.34%

July
System: 9-1 (90%)
Overall: 9-5 (64.29%)
Profit: 6.78 units
ROI: 31.39%

August
System: 12-0 (100%)
Overall: 12-8 (60%)
Profit: 13.42 units
ROI: 35.45%

September (so far)
System: 3-0 (100%)
Overall: 3-1 (75%)
Profit: 3 units
ROI: 54.95%

It's a simple 3 game chase for teams to avoid sweeps. I love baseball and numbers.. and I've found my niche with combining the two into a useful hobby. Being a calculus teacher, I apply my knowledge of numbers and statistics to stay consistent and organized.

This 2013 MLB season was experimental... but next year I plan on starting with a bankroll to make a nice profit during the summer months. I already have an account at Heritage Sports. Any helpful suggestions from the covers community? Anything would be appreciated. 

Thanks!
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#2
Posted: 9/7/2013 10:51:57 AM
Just curious about your betting structure.  Are you betting plus money (bet ML on dogs, RL on favs) only or ML only?  Trying to understand how you can take a loss in both May and July and still make a profit.  At even money, a 3 game chase loss is 6 units.
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JEFFTHEHAT
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#3
Posted: 9/7/2013 11:20:04 AM
Tad , sent friend request I have a math question maybe  you can help me with? it involves an accident my girlfriend was involved in. thx ahead of time.

The Hat
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Tad send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
Tad
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#4
Posted: 9/7/2013 11:43:47 AM
@flwareagle
I always bet to win 1 unit, then 2, then 4. On the occasion where I bet an underdog, I bet to risk 1, 2, and 4 units still to win plus money. There are occasions where I may win 1.5 or sometimes even 2 units on a system win because of the + money. I tend to stick around even -120 or +120 moneylines.

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JEFFTHEHAT
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#5
Posted: 9/7/2013 1:57:57 PM
Sent you a PM Tad 
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Tad send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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#6
Posted: 9/14/2013 10:57:49 AM
Just won with the Athletics last night +119

Now:
System: 46-2 (95.92%)
Overall: 46-33 (58.23%)
Profit: +43.24 units
ROI (return on investment): 28.56%

Do you know anyone else who maintained a ROI of at least 28% throughout the whole season? I bet you haven't! Maybe next year I'll post my plays on this website. Don't worry, I won't string you along and then ask for money for my plays, lol. I already make money winning so I don't need yours.

Winning never gets old! A unit bet of $25 makes you $1,081 richer this MLB season. Let me know if you know of someone with a higher ROI! 

Have a nice weekend everyone.
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#7
Posted: 9/14/2013 11:43:45 AM
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JEFFTHEHAT
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#8
Posted: 9/14/2013 12:03:14 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Tad:

Just won with the Athletics last night +119

Now:
System: 46-2 (95.92%)
Overall: 46-33 (58.23%)
Profit: +43.24 units
ROI (return on investment): 28.56%

Do you know anyone else who maintained a ROI of at least 28% throughout the whole season? I bet you haven't! Maybe next year I'll post my plays on this website. Don't worry, I won't string you along and then ask for money for my plays, lol. I already make money winning so I don't need yours.

Winning never gets old! A unit bet of $25 makes you $1,081 richer this MLB season. Let me know if you know of someone with a higher ROI! 

Have a nice weekend everyone.

Keep up the good work Tad 
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Tad send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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#9
Posted: 9/14/2013 12:36:44 PM
Unfortunately, it's nearing the end of the season. I don't have the same type of system that applies to other sports (NFL, NBA, etc).

I wait all year for baseball... because I tend to donate some back on other sports. lol

Maybe you guys can help with that. I'll be checking in on your systems to get some help.
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gratefulbets
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#10
Posted: 9/15/2013 8:18:15 PM
What is the relationship ( or difference) between System and Overall?

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Tad send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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#11
Posted: 9/16/2013 4:50:46 PM
@gratefulbets
The system record shows how many series did I chase to avoid the sweep. So 46 times I picked a team that won at least 1 of the 3 games... but 2 times I picked a team that got swept.
The overall record indicates each individual game result. I do 1 unit, 2 units, then 4 units to win 1 unit every system win. My profit is way more than it should, and that's because I do mostly underdogs and win lots of plus money.
Hope this helps! 
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#12
Posted: 9/16/2013 4:58:15 PM
Great Job Tad, Thanks for sharing.
Does it matter home field or on the road?
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#13
Posted: 9/17/2013 4:18:16 PM
I didn't record my results according to road/home splits... but looking back I wish I had. It definitely matters home/away... as a hot team at home is very pricey. It's best to look for hot bad teams vs cold good teams. I can't share exactly how I make my system plays.
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gratefulbets
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#14
Posted: 9/19/2013 1:40:45 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Tad:

@gratefulbets
The system record shows how many series did I chase to avoid the sweep. So 46 times I picked a team that won at least 1 of the 3 games... but 2 times I picked a team that got swept.
The overall record indicates each individual game result. I do 1 unit, 2 units, then 4 units to win 1 unit every system win. My profit is way more than it should, and that's because I do mostly underdogs and win lots of plus money.
Hope this helps! 

In other words, you lost a total of 31 plays that you eventually won back by chasing, and 2 series (14 units wagered) that you lost after 3 tries. 
Therefore, you won 13 games on the first play, "broke even" on 31 series, and lost 14 units on 2 series. And since you play mostly dogs, you will net more on the dog series than you wagered. 

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gratefulbets
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#15
Posted: 9/19/2013 10:44:47 AM
Excuse me, I'm wrong on the 31 series plays. You actually net 1 unit or more with the dog payout. Sweet.
Of course, the key is having a handicapping system that picks the winner within the "3 strikes and you're out" chase system often enough so that you don't go bust, a better than 7-1 ratio.  
Question: if you start a series with a dog team that loses, but then that team becomes the fav in the next game, do you still bet that team? Are you chasing just one team in each series?
Thanks 
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gratefulbets
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#16
Posted: 9/19/2013 10:51:04 AM
Does Heritage offer a 10 cent line? The only one that we US guys can use that does offer the 10 cent line is 5 Dimes, that I know of.
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Tad send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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#17
Posted: 9/21/2013 10:29:42 AM
@gratefulbets
If you message me your email address, I can add you to my share list so you can view the spreadsheet yourself. To answer your questions, though, I'll give you this example:

With a series favorite:
G1 Royals -126 (bet to win 1 unit) ... lets say a loss
G2 Royals -110 (bet to win amount lost on G1 + 1 unit) ... etc..

With a series underdog:
G1 Orioles +120 (risk 1 unit to win plus money) ... lets say a loss
G2 Orioles -110 (bet to win amount lost on G1 + 1 unit) ... etc..

With a big underdog:
G1 Yankees +135 (risk 1 unit) ... lets say a loss
G2 Yankees +140 (amount lost on G1 + risk 1 unit) ... high profit!

Sometimes I bet less to just break 1 unit profit for the system play... but I love me some plus money profit!

The first system loss I had I salvaged a bit because of the too big of underdog status.. so I bet TO WIN enough to gain 1 unit instead of risking 4 units to win plus money... it resulted in a 6 unit loss instead of 7. My second system loss I skipped G1 and chased G2 (1 unit) and G3 (2 units) and lost... so that was only a 3 unit loss. A total of 9 units loss... but I won 53 units on all my other plays so I end up way ahead!

I don't think heritage has 10 cent lines... that I know of at least.

Hope this helps!
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#18
Posted: 9/24/2013 10:03:00 PM
Thanks much for your explanation. That's what I thought. Of course, picking a team that won't get swept has got to be the trick, otherwise, everyone would be on that money train. How often does it happen in a season? 

So you probably want to use 5 Dimes for baseball so you can get a .10 line.
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#19
Posted: 10/2/2013 1:23:28 AM
Tad, sent you a PM again 
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