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Author: [College Basketball] Topic: Friday Discussion
TRoe15
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TRoe15
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#1
Posted: 11/9/2011 10:51:35 AM
We obviously don't have lines for Friday yet, but it's never too early to start breaking down what will be a huge card. I'm going to put nropp11's line projections in here, to give us a place to at least start a conversation.

North Carolina vs. Michigan St +11 (San Diego)
Columbia at UConn -33
Illinois-Chicago at Eastern Michigan -7
Northern Illinois at Purdue -35
Dartmouth at Rutgers -19
UL Monroe at Mississippi -30
Towson at Kansas -34
Arkansas-Little Rock at Tulsa -14
St Joseph's at Western Kentucky +6
Cornell at St Bonaventure -7
Wright St at Ohio St -29
BYU at Utah St +5
Troy at Texas Tech -16
Loyola Chicago at Illinois -17
Missouri St at Nevada -7
Oregon at Vanderbilt -13
Loyola Marymount at UCLA -18
CS Northridge at USC -25
Illinois St at Fresno St -2
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TRoe15
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#2
Posted: 11/9/2011 10:54:49 AM
UC Irvine at California -24
Southern Utah at UC Davis +1
Bryant at San Diego St -25
Army at Air Force -13
The Citadel at VMI -9
North Dakota St at San Francisco -11
UL Lafayette at Northern Arizona +4
Eastern Illinois at Indiana St -21
Western Carolina at South Carolina -13
Marist at Kentucky -29
Tennessee Martin at Louisville -33
Loyola MD at Wake Forest -1
UNC Greensboro at Tennessee -12
Elon at UMass PK
Tennessee Tech at Miami FL -17
St Peter's at Buffalo -7
Valparaiso at Georgia Southern +9
SE Missouri St at Missouri -32
Austin Peay at Middle Tennessee St PK
Tennessee St at St Louis -15
Wofford at Georgia -8
Idaho St at Oklahoma -29
Montana at Colorado St -5
Portland St at Denver -14
Montana St at Arizona St -23
Eastern Washington at Gonzaga -24
Rhode Island at George Mason -12
Belmont at Duke -10
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samdude3
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#3
Posted: 11/9/2011 11:00:14 AM
Deff have to be picky with this many games on deck this early in the year.

I'm looking at the under in that MSU v UNC game. Not easy to play outdoors with wind.
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PimpJzH
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#4
Posted: 11/9/2011 11:07:07 AM
CSU picked to finish 4th in the mwc i believe, i'd take -5 all day but i havent researched it yet either
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#5
Posted: 11/9/2011 11:21:44 AM
Only one game sticks out. 

Oregon 
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#6
Posted: 11/9/2011 11:41:54 AM

I think the Nevada line will be closer to -5 and if it is I will jump on them.

Also Duke -10 looks pretty tempting.

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thewhitesmith
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#7
Posted: 11/9/2011 11:43:41 AM
2 others stood out to me.

st bonaventure -7? now i don't know much about them but historically aren't they one of the worst programs? that looks like an appropriate line if they were facing findlay prep

wake forest -1. again no research, but acc at home -1 against loyola MD? what am i missing here?
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nropp11
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#8
Posted: 11/9/2011 11:59:53 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by samdude3:

Deff have to be picky with this many games on deck this early in the year.

I'm looking at the under in that MSU v UNC game. Not easy to play outdoors with wind.

If their is any wind or rain in the area, they will play below deck.
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nropp11
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#9
Posted: 11/9/2011 12:09:49 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by thewhitesmith:

2 others stood out to me.

st bonaventure -7? now i don't know much about them but historically aren't they one of the worst programs? that looks like an appropriate line if they were facing findlay prep

wake forest -1. again no research, but acc at home -1 against loyola MD? what am i missing here?

Bonnies finished 8-8 in the A-10 last year, return a ton of their offense, most notably Nicholson. And they beat this Cornell team on the road by 2 last year.

Wake Forest lost to Stetson, Winthrop, and Presbyterian at home last year. 
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TRoe15
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#10
Posted: 11/9/2011 12:10:26 PM
Hoping to catch a little bit more with Belmont. Veteran team that I could see winning SU. Hoping for a 12.5/13 type line there.

Buffalo interests me if the line is a little bit shorter than what nropp projected it at. Otherwise the under may be worth a look there as well.

Utah St lost quite a bit of firepower, but anytime they're dogged at home, they should at least get a look. Especially with big-time rival BYU coming into town.
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#11
Posted: 11/9/2011 12:12:18 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by BluejayBuckets:

I think the Nevada line will be closer to -5 and if it is I will jump on them.

Also Duke -10 looks pretty tempting.

I went to the Nevada exhibition against DII Chico State last night.  Very sloppy first 30 minutes for the Wolf Pack, which isn't entirely unexpected, but the five returning starters showed lots of rust in the first half.  Nevada trailed by 9 near the end of the first half.  20 turnovers for Nevada, mostly unforced.  This team looks like it may phone it in early, then rally to put inferior teams away.  Once they buckled down defensively they looked like world-beaters, and won 77-60.  The altitude (4600') will particularly wear on visiting teams in the second halves of games.  It's probably a good thing that they made a ton of mistakes in the exhibition...I suspect it'll give coach Carter some "talking points."

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#12
Posted: 11/9/2011 1:12:43 PM

What’s up fellas.  Long time lurker of the forums, just have never posted.  Curious as to what you guys think about Belmont/Duke.  See Nropp’s line of Duke -10, which I think is pretty close, would like a couple more points preferably and could see that when it comes out just because of the “Duke” name.  I think a play on Belmont might be in order, maybe more so in the 1st half. 

As we know Belmont is coming off that great 30-5 campaign last year, where they return 9 of the top 11 from their rotation last year.  Their top 3 scorers return with Clark, Hedgepeth and Saunders, where Duke is relatively young and inexperienced with the departure of their top 3 scorers from last year in Smith, Singler and Irving.  I know the Plumlees along with Curry and Dawkins are back, but I think it may take some time for this team to find its leader and identity.  Running into an experienced team the 1st game of the season may not be the best thing for that.

Duke won both of their preseason games against Bellarmine 87-62, and Shaw 80-66.  In each of these games Duke struggled on the defensive end early.  Against Bellarmine, last year’s D-II national champion and a team that returns 4 starters, Duke raced out to a 22-7 lead only to become sluggish on D and allow Bellarmine to cut that lead to 32-31 late in the 1st Half.  In their second game against Shaw, Duke struggled in the 1st half again getting beat regularly on the perimeter by dribble penetration that led to easy layups for Shaw’s inside big man.  Shaw shot it at a 50 % clip, going 15 for 30 from the field in the 1st half, before Duke tightened up their D in the 2nd. 

I think Belmont’s 4 out 1 in offense may cause some trouble for Duke.  Although they don’t necessarily rely on dribble penetration, only Clark is a real penetrator/play maker, they move the ball quickly and cut decisively throughout the paint.  The paint is where either Hedgepeth or Saunders will be holding court.  The two were the 2nd and 3rd leading scorers respectively last year behind Clark.  The 4 perimeter players will pass and cut nonstop and all can knock down the 3 ball.  Last year Belmont ranked 3rd in the nation at 9.3 3’s made a game.  The 4 out 1 in can also cause some matchup problems when Duke tries to have any combination of the three Plumlee brothers and Kelly on the floor at any given time.  I’m aware they’re all pretty athletic, but they’ll be pulled away from the glass, which in turn could hinder their rebounding especially with the long boards coming from Belmont’s 3 point barrage.                

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#13
Posted: 11/9/2011 1:13:08 PM

Defensively Belmont may have some issue trying to guard the Plumlees and Kelly being that they all are about 6’10 and athletic.  Hedgepeth goes about 6’9, and Saunders 6’11, but the two are hardly ever on the floor together because of their 4 out 1 in offense.  Belmont aggressively defends the on the ball, which often leaves them susceptible to dribble penetration.  Clark is their best on ball defenders and I imagine he will be matched up with Rivers who seems to be Duke’s best shot creator/penetrator/playmaker.  Hawkins and Curry are more of spot up shooters in my opinion, Curry more so than Dawkins.  That’s not to say that either of them cannot create shots for themselves or teammates though.  If Clark can limit Rivers penetration, I think Belmont would be in pretty good shape.  Due to their aggressive nature Belmont fouls a lot, but as of late Duke hasn’t been terrific from the charity stripe, going 11 for 24 against Shaw, continuing a trend from their trip in China.

There are a few other things I saw from Belmont that I like that do not necessarily pertain to this game’s match-ups itself.  We know many liked Belmont last year in the big dance against Wisconsin.  They were 4 point dogs and billed as the upset special by many, but ultimately suffered a 14 pt defeat.  They trailed in this game by 7 at the break, 34-27.  To open last season Belmont traveled to Knoxville to battle Tennessee.  They were covered as 14 pt dogs losing 85-76.  In this one they trailed by 6 at the half and battled back to cut the lead to 1 at 77-76 with 36 ticks left to play.  Ultimately they couldn’t pull out the win surrendering 8 pts from the stripe to close it. 

These two games show me that Belmont is not afraid of the big time conference teams.  They have confidence and believe they can play with the big boys.  I know the environment at Cameron is a whole other animal, but I think Belmont is experienced enough to not be shaken by it.  If we can get a line of about +6 for the 1st half I think it could warrant a play.  With Duke having some issues early in exhibition games and Belmont being a seasoned team, taking the early line may prevent a late cover by Duke due to their better overall talent level.  Just my two cents guys, hope you all have a great year and look forward to chatting when I can.                

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#14
Posted: 11/9/2011 1:51:05 PM
GL this season TR
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TRoe15
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TRoe15
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#15
Posted: 11/11/2011 8:48:30 AM
Only play I've locked in so far for Friday is St. Peter's +11. I'll have a writeup on it in my actual thread later. Was hoping to hit Buffalo around -4.5/5, but it went the other way, big.
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badlands
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#16
Posted: 11/11/2011 12:02:05 PM
gl this year t 
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