WEEK 5 - NFL Breakdown Sheets

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Author: [NFL Betting] Topic: WEEK 5 - NFL Breakdown Sheets
DJM5226 PM DJM5226
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quote#101
Posted: 10/8/2012 7:10:28 PM
Thinking about playing a Texans -3, Under 48 teaser.  Thoughts?  
chivashoolio PM chivashoolio
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quote#102
Posted: 10/8/2012 7:32:14 PM
it appears that everybody is on the jets despite their reasoning all being the same "too easy to bet texans, vegas wants you to"
si1ly PM si1ly
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quote#103
Posted: 10/8/2012 7:44:07 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by DJM5226:

Thinking about playing a Texans -3, Under 48 teaser.  Thoughts?  

I have a strange feeling this game gets into the mid 40's.  Could be too good to be true.
si1ly PM si1ly
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quote#104
Posted: 10/8/2012 7:45:04 PM
Also, make sure you know your books rules on teasers... win/loss/tie with a push DJM  
chivashoolio PM chivashoolio
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quote#105
Posted: 10/8/2012 7:45:07 PM
do you play on playing anything silly? im leaning texans and over
Gamebred PM Gamebred
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quote#106
Posted: 10/8/2012 7:46:40 PM
Si1ly,

Is there a primary site where we can look at your NFL archives like the following one you have for baseball? 

https://docs.google.com/folder/d/0B8gd-be68XCvcThxV0dtXzBENlE/edit?pli=1

Thanks. 
si1ly PM si1ly
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quote#107
Posted: 10/8/2012 7:46:51 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by chivashoolio:

will you have a play?

Slight lean to the over, but I don't think I'll play it.  Might jump in at halftime if I see something I like.  This is a tough game to read.. hard to know what to expect from the Jets.
hawgpix PM hawgpix
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quote#108
Posted: 10/8/2012 7:47:22 PM
GL
si1ly PM si1ly
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quote#109
Posted: 10/8/2012 7:51:16 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Gamebred:

Si1ly,

Is there a primary site where we can look at your NFL archives like the following one you have for baseball? 

https://docs.google.com/folder/d/0B8gd-be68XCvcThxV0dtXzBENlE/edit?pli=1

Thanks. 

I will create an archive folder for NFL sheets inside the primary link from post #1 of this thread.  Same drill as the baseball forum.  In fact, the link in post #1 will remain constant through the season.  Each week I will move the previous week's sheets into the archive folder and post the upcoming weeks thread in it's own folder.
chivashoolio PM chivashoolio
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quote#110
Posted: 10/8/2012 7:52:03 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by si1ly:


Slight lean to the over, but I don't think I'll play it.  Might jump in at halftime if I see something I like.  This is a tough game to read.. hard to know what to expect from the Jets.


i think vegas has tricked people into think the texans are a trap judging by this forum...
si1ly PM si1ly
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quote#111
Posted: 10/8/2012 8:03:31 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by chivashoolio:



i think vegas has tricked people into think the texans are a trap judging by this forum...

I try avoid reading into things like this.  It can only cloud the true probability of the game.  As far as my numbers show, the Texans should win this game approximately 71% of the time.  Historically, teams with this winning percentage have an average margin of victory of about 9 ppg.  Oddsmakers set a pretty fair line here.. it's not a trap or anything else.  It just is what it is.

chivashoolio PM chivashoolio
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quote#112
Posted: 10/8/2012 8:28:54 PM
see you at halftime silly
Show_Stoppa PM Show_Stoppa
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quote#113
Posted: 10/8/2012 8:38:41 PM
do you factor in any turn over ratio's or stats??
Show_Stoppa PM Show_Stoppa
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quote#114
Posted: 10/8/2012 8:39:14 PM
Also would you consider Houston ML at -380?
si1ly PM si1ly
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quote#115
Posted: 10/8/2012 8:45:53 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Show_Stoppa:

Also would you consider Houston ML at -380?

Sorry, didn't see this.  Woulda said no.  Fair value on the moneyline for Houston is -285
si1ly PM si1ly
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quote#116
Posted: 10/8/2012 8:48:18 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Show_Stoppa:

do you factor in any turn over ratio's or stats??

Turnovers are not factored into the model.  Turnovers in the NFL have very little to do with skill.. footballs are a very weird shape and they tend to do unpredictable things.  I've found that it's best to avoid throwing them into the equation if possible.  Better to keep it simple by looking at offensive/defensive match-ups.
chivashoolio PM chivashoolio
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quote#117
Posted: 10/8/2012 10:10:34 PM
silly surely a play on the texans in the 2nd half? the jets offense is inept and their defense isn't much better...
si1ly PM si1ly
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quote#118
Posted: 10/8/2012 10:13:30 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by chivashoolio:

silly surely a play on the texans in the 2nd half? the jets offense is inept and their defense isn't much better...

The Texans should run the ball all second half and play zone.  Take the under.
si1ly PM si1ly
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quote#119
Posted: 10/8/2012 10:15:16 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by si1ly:


The Texans should run the ball all second half and play zone.  Take the under.

Although, after just hearing myself say that, a desperate Jets team could make huge mistakes leading to short fields or defensive touchdowns.. the under might not be the best idea after all.
Barnstorm PM Barnstorm
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quote#120
Posted: 10/8/2012 10:17:10 PM
Yes, tough call. Texans ball control vs Jets depsperation.
chivashoolio PM chivashoolio
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quote#121
Posted: 10/8/2012 10:17:24 PM
i reckon -3.5 is not bad...jets are lucky to have any points at all, foster looks like he can tear them apart
si1ly PM si1ly
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quote#122
Posted: 10/8/2012 10:18:00 PM
Texans are probably the right side in the second half.  The -3 / -3.5 line is a pretty clear indication of this too.  I think Houston is the best second half bet.
si1ly PM si1ly
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quote#123
Posted: 10/8/2012 10:19:30 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by chivashoolio:

i reckon -3.5 is not bad...jets are lucky to have any points at all, foster looks like he can tear them apart

Yeah, even with that 42 yard run taken away Foster is averaging over 5 ypc.  All indications point to Houston running away with this.
chivashoolio PM chivashoolio
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quote#124
Posted: 10/8/2012 10:21:18 PM
have a punt silly i do not believe the jets can stop the pass rush of the texans they triple team watt and brooks reed comes through easy, lucky to get away with that sack strip earlier, wouldnt be surprised to see more.

texans are prepared for tebow as well
Gamebred PM Gamebred
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quote#125
Posted: 10/9/2012 4:31:19 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by si1ly:


I will create an archive folder for NFL sheets inside the primary link from post #1 of this thread.  Same drill as the baseball forum.  In fact, the link in post #1 will remain constant through the season.  Each week I will move the previous week's sheets into the archive folder and post the upcoming weeks thread in it's own folder.


Gotcha.  Thank you for getting back to me Si1ly.
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