Posted: 3/3/2011 8:39:48 AM
I like what I read regarding home dogs getting points vs unranked teams in an earlier post. WVU -4 vs UConn was a good example tonight, though a small serving size.
I have been obsessed with home unranked teams vs ranked opponents in general this season. Once Dec 1st rolled around, and the rankings settled a little, it was a very profitable run on home unranked teams vs ranked opponents if you bet it right and applied one of a few betting patterns.
Also, the OVER was a decent lean as well in these situations... which isnt easy to find (a consistent "over" scenario in anything!).
In using the coaches polls as my set for establishing who is ranked top 25, I have tried to gauge results based on 2 lines of criteria-
1- public money. 2- emotional situations
1. public money. lets face it, the ranked teams are going to get the weight in the long run. I like the idea of looking into home unranked teams vs ranked opponents assuming that the value will be there, as the line makers try to entice people off the ranked team... especially when they are favored.
2. emotions- it goes without saying that the college atmosphere will be controlled more by emotional situations, atleast compared to professional sports. My theory on taking the home unranked vs a ranked opponent is simple logic- one only needs to look at the courtside view opposite the benches tonight in the WVU game to understand. The corwd in college hoops SURELY effects the game. But the concept of taking the home unranked team in regards to a favorable emotional situation is deeper than just the crowd.
2a- the players, much like the crowd of the home team, will be "getting up" for this game, no doubt, in the long run. In some cases, you can catch an ranked road team sleeping, looking ahead to a "bigger" game, etc.
2b- officiating. A good read out now is a book titled "SportsCast." Yes, its done in part with a media mogul, I understand that- but it discusses human nature and how it effects officiating. Its not calling out a situation in point fixing- just human nature- basically, if you have 20,000 people who are going to cheer or boo you, which way do you lean? A good example of this logic is the strike zone in baseball- yes, its supposed to be a set box based on the plate and the batters height... but we all know it moves... why? My theory is, in college basketball, you will get a slight lean in your favor in critical situations... ya know, that foul call when the defensive player CLEARLY had his feet set for the charge(See St. Johns @ Villanova, about 3 minutes left in game)... who do you think gets that call?
When we are discussing sports betting, any lean in your direction gets you closer to that 55-60% winner, and thats a helluva living, right??
So, in short, if you look @ the results of taking ALL home unranked teams vs ranked opponents, fav or dog, you will see a favorable #. You will see the same on the over in these games (again, a juiced up home team can help put some tangible logic to the theory).
Again, this is between Dec 1st and Feb 1st. We will call the home unranked team BET A and the OVER BET B.
It was profitable this year, along with bet C and D, which I will get into next. (I recorded the bets on the home team and the over @ a diff website, private message me if you would like the proof).
In the last 3 years, it has been even to slightly over in terms of profit.
Now, I'm not betting real money at this yet- I'm not one of these guys on here who tries to act like I'm living the dream (I'm taking the long road)... but I will be applying filters to see if I can minimize the number of bets to squeeze out maximum potential. I am currently looking into fluctauted weights and betting patterns, along with revenge factor, winning and losing streaks, injuries, etc... all things that either effect the line or effect the emotion.
NOW- take this a strategy a step further- emotions of a team, that is- and lets discuss letdowns.
What would you think a team is likely to do in its next game? My theory is a letdown.
Bet C and D in this logic this season for me was simple- I will post this seperately...