Sitautional Capping 101

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Author: [NFL Betting] Topic: Sitautional Capping 101
sportskingpin PM sportskingpin
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Posted: 10/3/2012 2:07:34 PM
I think Vanzack comes off as a person as well but he means well. The more I look into this Circadian Advantage the more I can agree with the fact that it does affect the players.

But as a basic Wikipedia page points out using MLB statistics, it has a huge advantage with a 3 hour time shift. But this can be mitigated because each day spent at the new time zone reduces the effect by an hour. Therefore if a team gets there a day early it only has the effect of a 2 hour time zone Circadian Advantage and not a 3 day Advantage. So if a team is in that time zone three days ahead of the game it has no effect. 

For me it still comes down to, if this has a big impact on players performance don't you think Vegas already knows that?
clubtnt PM clubtnt
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Posted: 10/3/2012 2:12:26 PM
vanzack, your argument is to simply inject doubt. i'm not saying i'm on LC's side either but have you provided any stats, data, or even better, proof, that you're correct? your idea of a proof is to start the clock now and come back five years later with compiled data to see whether or not the trend is upheld- an impractical resolution.

this is much like, for a lack of better example, the creationist view that evolution isn't real because it wasn't directly observed. they want to view it directly, bones morphing/mutating and all, in order to believe it. anyway, shitty example.
vanzack PM vanzack
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Posted: 10/3/2012 2:26:58 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by clubtnt:

vanzack, your argument is to simply inject doubt. i'm not saying i'm on LC's side either but have you provided any stats, data, or even better, proof, that you're correct? your idea of a proof is to start the clock now and come back five years later with compiled data to see whether or not the trend is upheld- an impractical resolution.

this is much like, for a lack of better example, the creationist view that evolution isn't real because it wasn't directly observed. they want to view it directly, bones morphing/mutating and all, in order to believe it. anyway, shitty example.


Wow.

I have to prove IM CORRECT?  Huh?  The original poster posted a claim.  I asked for further clarification.  The original poster called me a meanie and said he wouldnt talk to me.

Then, we find out there are 10 examples over 10 years and it is 7-3.  Do you actually need me to explain to you why 10 examples over a 10 year period that contain 2500 games is statistically insignificant?

I cant believe this.  What stats, data, or proof do I need to provide?  The 2490 other results that do not fall in to this category?  A class on statistics to show that 10 results out of 2500 are not statistically relevant?

Jeesh.  You have got to be kidding me.  Maybe you dont like my tone.  Maybe you dont like my style.  Maybe you dont like me.  But you should be licking my boots that I am the first one at covers out of several thousand who read this garbage to actually question it, and get further along to understand what is at the bottom of it.  But if all you want to do is congratulate the original poster, here is my response.....

Good Luck!!

I will be watching this system closely!!


Is that better???


vanzack PM vanzack
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Posted: 10/3/2012 2:29:00 PM
And once again - for the 10th time in this thread.....

WHAT DO YOU SUGGEST WE DO WITH THIS INFORMATION????

Maybe ClubTNT will attempt to answer me since nobody else will, and he seems to like to dance with the devil.

Give it a shot.  Do we bet it blindly?  What if there is a 7-3 trend for the east coast team that night - what then?
SYSTEM PM SYSTEM
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Posted: 10/3/2012 2:45:41 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by vanzack:



Wow.

I have to prove IM CORRECT?  Huh?  The original poster posted a claim.  I asked for further clarification.  The original poster called me a meanie and said he wouldnt talk to me.

Then, we find out there are 10 examples over 10 years and it is 7-3.  Do you actually need me to explain to you why 10 examples over a 10 year period that contain 2500 games is statistically insignificant?

I cant believe this.  What stats, data, or proof do I need to provide?  The 2490 other results that do not fall in to this category?  A class on statistics to show that 10 results out of 2500 are not statistically relevant?

Jeesh.  You have got to be kidding me.  Maybe you dont like my tone.  Maybe you dont like my style.  Maybe you dont like me.  But you should be licking my boots that I am the first one at covers out of several thousand who read this garbage to actually question it, and get further along to understand what is at the bottom of it.  But if all you want to do is congratulate the original poster, here is my response.....

Good Luck!!

I will be watching this system closely!!


Is that better???



Van, these are the same type of people that believe in a god, yet they want us to prove that one doesn't exist...
clubtnt PM clubtnt
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Posted: 10/3/2012 3:25:11 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by vanzack:

And once again - for the 10th time in this thread.....

WHAT DO YOU SUGGEST WE DO WITH THIS INFORMATION????

Maybe ClubTNT will attempt to answer me since nobody else will, and he seems to like to dance with the devil.

Give it a shot.  Do we bet it blindly?  What if there is a 7-3 trend for the east coast team that night - what then?


van, where did i say this trend is golden? i didn't.

what if there's a 7-3 trend for east coast teams? what if there's a 11-2 trend for balmy weather? what if there's a 8-0-2 trend for election years? what if's?!?! what do i suggest we do with these trends? i don't suggest anything for the collective "we". as for the individual, any trends, news, injuries, inside info, etc., can be considered but doesn't have to be, it's up to each person.

what will i do with it? nothing. just hoping for a good game as i'm sitting this one out.
tankstevens PM tankstevens
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Posted: 10/3/2012 4:01:14 PM
[Quote: Originally Posted by SYSTEM]

Van, these are the same type of people that believe in a god, yet they want us to prove that one doesn't exist...
[/Quote

I should have you know, God is very nice and awesome. He tested me by making me go 2-4 last week.I appreciated every moment of it....ok I'm lying.
hawgpix PM hawgpix
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Posted: 10/3/2012 4:12:03 PM
Still no pm from League Capper....MIA?  No, that's not Miami! lol
ninefine PM ninefine
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Posted: 10/3/2012 4:38:11 PM

So I added in the rest of the night games over the past 10 years... it is 17 - 11 in favor of the west coast SU.  I agree with Van that this is too small of a sample size (on average approximately 3 games a year)  

2002:

SEP 5_SF 16 – NYG 13

SEP 15 OAK 30 – PIT 17

NOV 17 OAK 27 – NE 20

NOV 25_PHI 38 -SF 17

DEC 2_OAK 26 - NYJ 20

 

 

2003:

OCT 27_MIA 26 - SD 10

NOV 17_SF 30 - PIT 14

 

2004:

SEP 26 OAK 30 – TB 20

 

2005:

SEP 8 NE 30 – OAK 20

SEP 25 SD 45 – NYG 23

OCT 10_PIT 24 - SD 22

DEC 5_SEA 42 - PHI 0

DEC 31 NYG 30 – OAK 21

 

2006:

OCT 8 SD 23 – PIT 13

 

2007:

SEP 16 NE 38 – SD 14

DEC 15 SF 20 – CIN 13

 

2008:

Sep 22_SD 48 - NYJ 29

OCT 12 SD 30 – NE 10

OCT 19 TB 20 – SEA 10

NOV 23 IND 23 – SD 20

 

2009:

OCT 4 PIT 38 – SD 8

 

2010:

OCT 10 PHI 27 – SF 24

NOV 28 SD 36 – IND 14

 

2011:

NOV 24 BAL 16 – SF 6

DEC 1 SEA 31 – PHI 14

Dec 5_SD 38 - JAC 14

DEC 18 SD 34 – BAL 14

Dec 19_SF 20 - PIT 3

The_WORM PM The_WORM
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Posted: 10/3/2012 5:12:09 PM
Good read 
JimRockford PM JimRockford
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Posted: 10/3/2012 6:53:32 PM

Van,

just bet all of your monies on California shippers to the east coast tracks.
gambling-devil PM gambling-devil
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Posted: 10/3/2012 7:22:50 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by vanzack:



Imagine if Darwin and Gallileo "gave it up".  Imagine if Ghandi and Jesus "gave it up".

Greatness is always met with resistance from the masses.  It is a curse I have learned to live with.  The loneliness sometimes wears on me, but then I snap my fingers and get a blowjob from a supermodel - and all is better.  Life is good.




Really? Jesus get a BJ from a supermodel - and all is better.  Life is good.
kevmode PM kevmode
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Posted: 10/3/2012 7:28:24 PM
Keep the religious atheist comments out the thread please thanks.   How bout we stick to capping the games instead of bashing religion.
gambling-devil PM gambling-devil
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Posted: 10/3/2012 7:37:33 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by kevmode:

Keep the religious atheist comments out the thread please thanks.   How bout we stick to capping the games instead of bashing religion.


kev, I apologize .... I am catholic too and I can't refrain myself from responding to such arrogant remark
FrozenTundra PM FrozenTundra
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Posted: 10/3/2012 11:01:29 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by vanzack:



I know you think Im more interested in the comment directed at me, but Im not.  Im interested in your comment to League Capper.....

Are you REALLY going to look more in to this when capping?  REALLY?  You are going to take a trend - that is 7-3 over the past 10 years, and look further in to while capping?  Im really interested to hear how you are going to do this - how are you going to incorporate this in to your capping?

The one time this year this is scheduled to happen - are you going to blindly bet on the west coast team?  On the spread?  ML?  This is the part nobody has responded to - and everyone who posts taht they are thankful for this wonderful information ignores.....

What do you do with this information exactly??????




Firstly, don't assume, my comments were my comments, your choice in your response is not in my control.

I actually will look into more, will I do it today? nope. Tomorrow? nope. But I will get to it.  I have been betting since I was 16, successfully since I was 22.  I love statistics, segmentation, momentum trends and I have applied this knowledge into a career, not in sports gambling but in analytics which I'm in senior management. I gamble part time/periodically and have posted winning seasons on covers in the nhl where is only where I used to consistently post. Don't believe me, who cares. My point to this rambling (finally I know) is so you know that I'm no bloke sitting in my mom's basement gambling to live pay check to pay check.

How am I going to take this into capping you ask? Next time I cap a game, this little trend will make my play a no play if it's only a slight lean to a bet. etc.  It's a similar trend which I incorporate which is don't bet against the home dog on MNF and be careful of taking the under on SNF. I don't blindly bet them, but when I attribute a % to factors to make my decision, these trends own a small attribution.

I hope in a general sense I have answered your question about how I will apply this knowledge. Anyone who bets this blindly or doesn't incorporate this as only a factor of their decision is a losing bettor. Perhaps LC came on a tad thick with his initial post, but perhaps just perhaps he got excited and wanted to share this knowledge with covers folks and didn't realize he would be graded on his messaging.

Point being...have a great discussion on a chat board is cool. I know you know your garbage, I've read your post and have applied some of your theories on buy/sell lines for a sure profit, or about complete randomness in the next card in BJ.  Perhaps though, you could have a chill discussion without firing out the person card so quickly. But maybe you like being a person. Who knows.

I hope for the most part I answered your question.

FT
redbook1 PM redbook1
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Posted: 10/5/2012 7:56:37 PM
i have a phd in statistics and evaluations of metronomical astronuclear phenomenon--and i say you are ALL full of garbage.
YukonTrav PM YukonTrav
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Posted: 10/5/2012 8:06:30 PM
And if you dont think Vegas already incorporates this 'time difference' in the spreads, I've got a BRIDGE to sell you  lol      By the way, going on trends (your 70%) is NOT situational betting. At all.

c'mon man!
YukonTrav PM YukonTrav
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Posted: 10/5/2012 8:08:14 PM
but good luck to you all the same ...  no worries
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