This is what I learned

Forum: NFL Betting Page 2 of 2  1 2  
Author: [NFL Betting] Topic: This is what I learned
FoolishTool PM FoolishTool
Joined: Dec 2009
Posts: 593
North Carolina
 
FoolishTool
Participation Meter
Posted: 10/12/2012 1:04:50 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by CAP-IT:

Call me a loser or whatever but never ever bet a primt time game on the fav.  Always take the dog and the points... This is pure BS... Vegas is killing us with these fixed primetime games unfawking real...  To make things worst Pits lose straight up really??? Big ben why not go closer for more yards or even punt it or what not???

Dogs are the way to go... fawk...

well, that garbage aint going to work,,, lets see now, earlier in the season the the eagles beat the giants as a fav but most people liked the dog,,,,,, just last week the 0-4 saints beat the chargers as 3 1/2 point favs but again more people liked the chargers, most people just did'nt trust the saints anymore ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, so it aint the fav or dog that matters its who most people trust to get the job done,,,,,,,,,, tonight very few people could trust the titans especially getting less than a touchdown,,, in fact, if people had to put thier life on it, who are they going to trust, BIG BEN or the other fker????? 

vinnyherbert PM vinnyherbert
Joined: Apr 2006
Posts: 956
 
vinnyherbert
Participation Meter
Posted: 10/12/2012 1:05:49 AM
Yeah I'm sure Big Ben conspired to throw the game. Get a life. Pitt has been awful on the road for 2 years against the spread and were playing shorthanded. these teams are all so close that 80 percent of the games and spreads are decided by one or 2 possessions. With all the action on games all over the world there would never be a need to fix games, which couldn't be done in the NFL anyway without some player talking at some point, the money made on juice alone makes the books money, and the hoards that just blindly bet favorites and popular dogs get the books a decent percentage on the moore one sided games. The NFL would not risk the gold mine it has ever fixing results in any way. And being that 99.9 percent of gambling is done offshore or with locals, vegas is a peon in he gambling world these days.
awright22 PM awright22
Joined: Nov 2010
Posts: 810
North Carolina
 
awright22
Participation Meter
Posted: 10/12/2012 1:06:25 AM
CAP-IT: Tell me what was your very first thought when you saw that Vegas had set the second half line for Pitt at -4/-3.5, when they were losing by 6? (knowing that sooo many bettors were on Pitt from the start) (oh yeah, if you would have bitten on that bait, it would have been the double whammy!!) Amazing Crystal ball huh?
Caput43 PM Caput43
Joined: Sep 2012
Posts: 329
 
Caput43
Participation Meter
Posted: 10/12/2012 1:07:00 AM
I lost a ton on Pitt. I cant answer if its fixed or not because money makes anything possible. I do know this tho--- Pitt Sux!!!
SuperCappa PM SuperCappa
Joined: Jul 2012
Posts: 967
 
SuperCappa
Participation Meter
Posted: 10/12/2012 1:10:59 AM
If anyone is to blame its Big Ben for missing Wallace on 3rd and 8 down the stretch when they were up by 7. I think he rushed the throw.
Posted using a mobile device.
CertifiedWizard PM CertifiedWizard
Joined: Sep 2012
Posts: 268
 
CertifiedWizard
Participation Meter
Posted: 10/12/2012 1:19:48 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by awright22:

CAP-IT: Tell me what was your very first thought when you saw that Vegas had set the second half line for Pitt at -4/-3.5, when they were losing by 6? (knowing that sooo many bettors were on Pitt from the start) (oh yeah, if you would have bitten on that bait, it would have been the double whammy!!) Amazing Crystal ball huh?

Actually I would like to hear your thought process after seeing the 2nd half line. I initially loved Pitts at -3.5 (-110) until everybody slammed it making it -4 (-120). That much action made me hold off on Steelers. 

But, my reasoning for leaning Steelers was that if it weren't for the block punt and interception, the score could have been completely different. Ben also exposed the secondary with that bomb to wallace. 

Any veteran cappers want to chime in on how to cap a 2nd half line like that? Or at least explain their thought process when approaching 2nd half lines.
SuperCappa PM SuperCappa
Joined: Jul 2012
Posts: 967
 
SuperCappa
Participation Meter
Posted: 10/12/2012 1:29:24 AM
My local had 2nd half @-3. Don't mean to rub it in.
Posted using a mobile device.
SuperCappa PM SuperCappa
Joined: Jul 2012
Posts: 967
 
SuperCappa
Participation Meter
Posted: 10/12/2012 1:32:44 AM
Local also had 1st quarter O/U @7.5 What a gift that was. If I was a
Bookie I would never have put that out.
Posted using a mobile device.
KyleBowler PM KyleBowler
Joined: Nov 2011
Posts: 419
 
KyleBowler
Participation Meter
Posted: 10/12/2012 2:35:45 AM
Always play the underdog on a fishy line. You will hit at a high rate.
einyx PM einyx
Joined: Apr 2006
Posts: 5855
United States
 
einyx
Participation Meter
Posted: 10/12/2012 2:45:05 AM
Just take the team that is more desparate. Especially if they are Dogs AND at home. Even if the play loses you are at least getting max effort from that team and they will play hard to the end. 
mrquija27 PM mrquija27
Joined: Jan 2011
Posts: 3052
Michigan
 
mrquija27
Participation Meter
Posted: 10/12/2012 10:29:48 AM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by awright22:

CAP-IT: Just keep paying attention. Everyone is gonna have an opinion and it takes for some people to get hit with a brick before they will even think about opening their eyes. You just keep paying attention to what's happening, and then call it what you want but bet with that wisdom. 

Dude we all have been hit with the brick and we learned from it.  Your getting hit as you speak.  And here comes the wrecking ball!!!

Fact is man your not listening to the people that understand the NFL and the people who understand how this gambling thing works.  You can keep denying it and say fix blah blah blah.  Bottom line is you guys are completely in the wrong.  None of care if you listen.  None of us care if you lose.  But if you wanna win more often you need to have an open mind and try to understand why these things like last night happen rather then blame it on a fix.  And for the record it happened because these teams are not as far apart as you think.  Then you get 6-7 pts at home!!  Well ask yourself why that is.  I will tell you.  Its because football is a heavily bet sport by the general public.  People who dont really know that game that well but think they do because they watch sportscenter on mondays.  Therefore the Steelers will always lose value becaust the public continues to think they are a dominant team and the public thinks Tenn completely blows based on a few games this year.  1. Pitt is not a very good team.  Average at best. 2.  Tenn is not a horrible team once again Average at best.  Remember this team was 9-7 last year and havent changed much.  Like stated before you have to look at the whole picture not just last week or last few weeks.  There is always a story you just need to learn how to read.

TRAIN69 PM TRAIN69
Joined: Oct 2002
Posts: 43452
Missouri
 
TRAIN69
Participation Meter
Posted: 10/12/2012 10:49:46 AM
This is the NFL. Any team can have a great game and beat anyone. Pitt is a team that shouldnt be a road fav vs anyone in this league right now. They are old and slow. Their defense is still getting props from 2007. This is 2012. Half a decade is a loooooong time in the nfl. Times change. Pitt isnt even gonna make the playoffs this year. Why should the Titans "have no business" beating them @ home?
capskip PM capskip
Joined: Oct 2009
Posts: 28330
Florida
 
capskip
Participation Meter
Posted: 10/12/2012 1:30:15 PM
 gl CAP
SuperCappa PM SuperCappa
Joined: Jul 2012
Posts: 967
 
SuperCappa
Participation Meter
Posted: 10/12/2012 1:49:16 PM
Well said Train. Its not rocketscience.
Posted using a mobile device.
Forum: NFL Betting Page 2 of 2  1 2  
You have entered the forum as a GUEST. 
You must login/register to post or reply.