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Author: [NFL Betting] Topic: SlumdogPicks|Early week 1 pick's|Critique and Advice
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#1
Posted: 5/29/2012 11:05:33 PM
Hey guys,

Thought we(I..) could have some fun and show you guys 5 potential picks I am looking at as of now. I have a few others I'm interested in, but depending on the preseason results and how I feel about various teams, these are the picks I like as of now. I'm sure some picks will change, but without further ado, here they are;

 1.) Bears -10(-110) vs. Colts +10 O/U:41(-110) = Bears -10 (-110) : 1-3 unit play
2.) Texans -6.5(-110) vs. Dolphins O/U:43.5(-110) = Texans -6.5(-110): 1-3 unit play
3.) Broncos -2(-110) vs. Steelers  +2 O/U:45(-110) = Steelers +2 or ML: 1-3 unit play play
4.) Patriots -6.5(-110) vs. Titans +6.5(-110) O/U:48.5 = Patriots -6.5(-110): 1 unit play
5.) Panthers -3(Even) vs. Buc's +3 (-120) O/U 47 = Panthers -3 (Even): 1 unit play

Pick 1: My mindset is that Indy is a young new team, going on the road to play against Chicago at Coulter field. With cutler back, and the new acquisitions in the post season the bears will be explosive, last year with cutler playing the bears were 5-1 at home, only loosing to green bay in week 3. Not to mention the Bears special teams, and defense are better then Indy. I think Indy struggles early, and can't keep up with Chicago.

Pick 2: I really, really like this pick. Dolphins had a great end to the season last year, where it was kinda the opposite for Houston (1 win out of the last 5 games (3 season, 2 playoff).  However coming into it Houston's big 3 (Schaub, Foster, Johnson) should come up huge. Last year in week 2 both teams played each other, and Houston came up on top 23-13 and Foster wasn't even in the line up(Ben Tate was due to foster being injured). I may raise the amount of unit's I place on Houston, depending how Miami and Houston do in the pre-season.

Pick 3. Broncos vs Steelers? Im not going to go too in depth since there has been a lot of discussion on this match up in other threads. I among other people on this forum are not 100% on how Manning will come back from having one year off from a serious neck injury... While the Steelers are looking to get off to a good start after loosing to Denver in the post season. Depending on the payout, Moneyline + under or something may be interesting, but I doubt I'll bother on the total points scored.

Pick 4: Pat's vs Titans: Im not sold on the titans offense. Hasselbeck is a sub par qb in my eyes in the titans lineup. In his final 8 games of his season in 2011 he threw 5 TD's and 8 INT's spread out. Last year's D diddn't really stand out, I think they were in the middle of the pack, 17th or 18th for total yards allowed... Not sure if much has changed. CJ2K has not been himself as well, but he can easily bounce back. But the Patriots have a disgusting team offensively speaking. I'm taking into account they have a brutal D, but their offense is so good I'm not worried (as of now). Gronk, Hernandez, Welker, Branch, and now Llyod... along with a new successful offensive coordinator,... Brady is laughing his way to the post season.

Pick 5: Meh, im not big on the Buc's and i think Newton/Smith/Stewart will pack a mean punch. Out of all the pick's, I am least confident in this one. However, that's not to say I don't like it, I just haven't looked into this match up as much as the others, it just caught my eye.


Feel free to give me some advice, give your own picks, disgree, flame, or agree in the comment section. Would love to hear some of the more experienced betters opinions on my thought process/picks.

- SlumdogPicks
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#2
Posted: 5/30/2012 6:48:55 AM
Knee jerk/unofficial

5) If enough people get on Cam Newton's jock, I'm taking the Buccs +3.
4) Get the Titans +7
2) Get the Dolphins +7
1) Almost everybody's gonna be on the Bears.  Public loves the Bears, go to Las Vegas and see all the Bears gear.

Looks like Dog Week 1.
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#3
Posted: 5/30/2012 6:54:50 AM
Budwsier your going to be 0-4 if u pick those dogs imo.
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#4
Posted: 5/30/2012 6:59:44 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by kevmode:

Budwsier your going to be 0-4 if u pick those dogs imo.




j love it.  unofficial fellas but i love hearing those picks suck behind
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#5
Posted: 5/30/2012 5:17:30 PM
I gotta respectfully disagree with titans/dolphins +7, as for the bucs I can see that going either way right now. But yes its unofficial and too early to tell, it's going to be a long summer fellas.
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#6
Posted: 5/31/2012 12:22:43 AM
yeah i know i fully expect a lot of patriots and texans $ because all people have to go on is last year

patriots public and texans on an ats tear
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#7
Posted: 6/5/2012 4:09:32 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by budwiser:

Knee jerk/unofficial

5) If enough people get on Cam Newton's jock, I'm taking the Buccs +3.
4) Get the Titans +7
2) Get the Dolphins +7
1) Almost everybody's gonna be on the Bears.  Public loves the Bears, go to Las Vegas and see all the Bears gear.

Looks like Dog Week 1.


I get where your coming from and it is the right logic but it doesn't always work.

Patriots were 7 point road favs against miami last years opener and beat em and thats their division rival went into kc and stomped em on monday night which is a hard stadium to win in and last time they played the titans beat them 59-0 was in foxborough but i dont think it matters

Houston beat miami by 10 in miami last year they beat pittsburgh @home atlanta and cincy @home with tj yates their healthy and that defense is solid like em at home

chicago improved their depth added brandon marshall and bush have a solid d always play well at home rookie qb on the road in his first game think it's 10 to scare people away but i will tease it down to 6 to be safe

You gotta cap what the other teams are going to bring to the field

that day day too not just what the publics on and while the public

may be on these favs gotta think that the 3 other teams are over

matched and the public does win too and the only one that has me

worried is the patroits just cause of there defense but if the score

early and often theres no catching up for the titans might tease it to

2.5 to be safe just my 2 cents
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#8
Posted: 6/5/2012 4:51:29 AM
yeah no doubt man it's not all about fading the public.  I'm not that way at all

That said I keep a sharp eye on who the public is on

A lot of what u said has to do with last year.  Including Cam Newton.  Point I'm trying to make is it's a new season, and no season is ever the same.  Things change, and you need to keep a keen eye on what has changed
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#9
Posted: 6/5/2012 1:55:50 PM
no doubt things change look at what the 49ers did in one year but one thing seems to be consistant in the nfl and that's the patriots and i hate the patroits i'm a steelers fan and i think u might be right about carolina cause they stomped tb so bad both games last year but they are at home got vincent jackson improved the running game and cam looked pretty shitty in the pro bowl yes a meaningless game but the way a half assed defense was rattling him i dunno
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#10
Posted: 6/5/2012 5:03:09 PM
I like Carolina vs. Bucs matchup. Not enough to bet on it though. I agree with buc's have improved dramatically in the off season, or so we think anyway. Fact is we don't know how good these guys will really be until kick off. Panthers we have a better idea of their skill level, and it should be interesting. As of right now, despite all Buc's have done in the off, I'm gunna go with Newton and his boys for now, but god damn does the nfl ever change so fast, Im secretly rooting for the bucs.
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#11
Posted: 6/5/2012 10:20:01 PM

Like picks 1 & 3. 

2, is probably ok too. 

4, Jake Locker better start and they will have a chance to win this game.

5, Like Tampa here.  They got every missing piece on offense and these guys proved they could click just a year ago.  You add veterans in VJax and DClark then add some veteran protection and this could get interesting.  We shall see.  Love the over on this game!

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#12
Posted: 6/6/2012 2:53:31 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by mrquija27:

Like picks 1 & 3. 

2, is probably ok too. 

4, Jake Locker better start and they will have a chance to win this game.

5, Like Tampa here.  They got every missing piece on offense and these guys proved they could click just a year ago.  You add veterans in VJax and DClark then add some veteran protection and this could get interesting.  We shall see.  Love the over on this game!

Locker aint nobody, hasslebeck is cover machine...

tampa bay is trash, no way u would put money on them.

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#13
Posted: 6/6/2012 4:43:13 PM
Ya i was gunna say... you like locker's chances of keeping up or beating Brady?

Tampa = 6 wins, 10 losses this year IMO.
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#14
Posted: 6/6/2012 9:42:40 PM

Well I guess thats easy plays for you guys.  Pats and Carolina. 

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#15
Posted: 6/7/2012 10:19:45 AM
SlumDog

I like the thinking on those picks.  However, one strategy I've used in the past though is taking the points in weeks 1-2 with rookie qb's who were drafted as the starters.  They've had an entire off season to train with the team, and the biggest thing is the opposition has no film on him or their offense.  The other thing is even if the game is a blowout going into the 4th, the team wants the rookie qb to get reps, so they play the game completely out which leaves the back door cover open.  I actually love the Bears this year..if they stay healthy they should be around come playoff time, but I'll be happy taking the +10 with the Colts.
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#16
Posted: 6/7/2012 3:43:51 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by mrquija27:

Well I guess thats easy plays for you guys.  Pats and Carolina. 

...after reviewing some stats, i actually i like the Lions wk1 now, bigtime...

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#17
Posted: 6/7/2012 3:49:25 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by alangrrbs:

SlumDog

I like the thinking on those picks.  However, one strategy I've used in the past though is taking the points in weeks 1-2 with rookie qb's who were drafted as the starters.  They've had an entire off season to train with the team, and the biggest thing is the opposition has no film on him or their offense.  The other thing is even if the game is a blowout going into the 4th, the team wants the rookie qb to get reps, so they play the game completely out which leaves the back door cover open.  I actually love the Bears this year..if they stay healthy they should be around come playoff time, but I'll be happy taking the +10 with the Colts.

i totally agree with ur reasoning, thats why i like the skins+10...

and that trend has been working for some years now wk1...

...the colts were so soft LY, then they went thru a wicked offseason, so forget rookie QB theory here,

 a regular team would have trouble covering that number wk1 let alone this one...

i mean who does he hand the ball off to?

 who does he throw to once his #1 WR is not open?

 who on defense is going to step up on 3rd downs?

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#18
Posted: 6/7/2012 3:51:02 PM

im worried about the texans losing star leaders on DEF! they only had 1 good year, now what?

im a let u know the Dolphins play D...

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#19
Posted: 6/7/2012 5:09:18 PM
I think the Texans have an good D coaching staff. They will be up for the challenge, when Mario went down last year he was the texans work horse, and look how the Texans responded.. preseason may give a little taste but I like the texans at home for week 1, offensively houston looks like they should be able to cover the spread.

And yes, the Texans D have had one good year, but what about the dolphins offense? They aren't exactly your most consistent, offensive threat.

Here is a parlay I'm thinking of locking in the future (I do two parlays at the start of every season to kick it off)... ritual type thing.

Parlay 1 - Normal Spreads...
Bet Price: +1228
  • St Louis at Detroit Detroit -9
  • Miami at Houston Houston -6.50
  • New England at Tennessee New England -6.50
  • Indianapolis at Chicago Chicago -10
This little fella I wouldn't bet more then 1 unit on, maybe 2 depending how confident I'm feeling/profits are at the end of the playoffs (nba/nhl). I tried to go with some home favorites/powerhouses. As well as the teams that have the offensive ability to actually be able to cover a spread like this.

Parlay 2 - Alternate Spreads
Bet Price: +401
  • St Louis at Detroit (Alternate Spread) Detroit -6.50
  • New England at Tennessee (Alternate Spread) New England -2.50 
  • Philadelphia at Cleveland (Alternate Spread) Philadelphia -6.50 
  • Indianapolis at Chicago (Alternate Spread) Chicago -6.5
This parlay I would bet enough to cover my loses on parlay 1 if I were to loose. The spreads are a lot more favorable, and be aware of the Philly vs. Cleveland addition. I know Mr. Richardson is a stud, but you have to understand after Philly's start to the season last year (1 win, 5 losses) they will be determined to get off to a better start this year. Cleveland unfortantly will be the first victim.
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#20
Posted: 6/7/2012 10:15:07 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by QBoption:

i totally agree with ur reasoning, thats why i like the skins+10...

and that trend has been working for some years now wk1...

...the colts were so soft LY, then they went thru a wicked offseason, so forget rookie QB theory here,

 a regular team would have trouble covering that number wk1 let alone this one...

i mean who does he hand the ball off to?

 who does he throw to once his #1 WR is not open?

 who on defense is going to step up on 3rd downs?



Those might be the same questions the Bears have...and they won't have answers until after the game...interesting stuff...but I do love the skins in the first couple weeks.  Totally with you on that.
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#21
Posted: 6/10/2012 10:10:16 AM
Skins look really interesting this year, could be a deadly team if the Offense jells... Can't wait to watch RG3 in pre season...
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#22
Posted: 6/10/2012 5:45:37 PM
i like both parlays
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#23
Posted: 6/11/2012 8:17:56 PM
Thanks dude, long away, but it would be a nice payout if they both pan out.  279 at risk for a total payout of $2700 and some change.

as of now just gotta wait it out, and pray for no injurys to any studs on the teams i bet on

What's everyone's opinions on Atlanta and Kansas City? Atlanta was just brutal on the road last year... Think it will continue week 1?
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#24
Posted: 6/13/2012 12:25:38 AM
I like the Carolina pick. Cam Newton is still an explosive QB and against a solid... i mean weak defense of the titans he can unload a high volume amount of ponts on this team. 

The running game is insane between QB/RB its nothing to be messed with. However i feel cam will be comfortable with Smith but he will still utilize his TE as well. I feel Smith is going to be covered alot more this season and he will need to find more targets.

Loved the pick though
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#25
Posted: 6/13/2012 11:20:19 AM

At first glance, i was like ATL is gonna kill'em, im sure im wrong.

watch KC come out swinging with some new additions to the team.that run game looks nice.KC has players on DEF.

+we got a dome team on the road playing on grass.

im going against my first reaction, CHEIFS.

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