Posted: 5/17/2012 5:32:32 PM
2012 Playoffs : 49-35-2 +193.07 units
Miami Heat -1 Pick (15 units to win 14.23)
Without discounting what the Pacers did in Game 2, the Heat were not good at all. Lebron and Wade weren't great and the bench was horrendous. But the Pacers fought hard and earned that victory. Well deserved win going on the road and smacking the Heat in the mouth. The question for Game 3 is can they repeat that performance. I think they can, but unfortunately I think they will need to be better. Certainly possible, but the Heat have one of two ways to beat the Pacers - Lebron and Wade dominate or they are simply good and they get solid production from the other players on the team. I think the Heat get the latter tonight or possibly a combination of both. I'm not confident that the Heat will win, though I lean that way, but I think they come out strong, and the Pacers come out a bit flat. This season, the Pacers have eight SU victories against playoff teams when they were the underdog, as was the case in Game 2 @ Miami. In the games following these straight up victories, the Pacers have led at half only once and that was against the Nets. In all eight games, the Pacers were otuscored on average 46-40 in the first half. Surely, this is playoff basketball, so hard to look back to the regular season, but the stats speak to how Indiana responds off an emotional and hard fought victory against an opponent expected to beat them. I think the first half brings a combination of the Pacers a bit flat coming down from Game 2 and the Heat a bit more aggressive. And not just Lebron and Wade.