Posted: 10/20/2011 7:48:36 PM
#1: St Louis Cardinals +100
#2: UNDER 8 TEX/STL -120
I know that a lot of people subscribe to the ‘zig-zag’ theory in basketball playoffs, but it’s foolish to use the same strategy in baseball. Still, an overwhelming majority is on the Rangers tonight. Well, the ‘value’ clearly lies on the home underdog. I’m backing a better pitcher in Garcia (3.31 Xfip vs 4.10 / 3.4 tERA vs 4.6 / 54% GB-rate vs 34%) who is pitching at home where he was 9-4 (team 11-4) with a 2.55 ERA during the season. The fact that I can get + odds here is tremendous. I’m not even going to analyze this further.
As for the UNDER, a couple of factors that make this a strong play:
1: Neither pitcher has faced this opponent in the past so the ‘unfamiliarity’ factor is in play
2: Garcia threw only 68 pitches in his last start and is playing on 5-days rest. Lewis is coming off a 9-day rest. Both should be ‘sharp’ and if not, the bullpens are ready.
3: Busch Stadium is a #6 ‘pitchers park’ in the league.
4: It’s going to be cold again in St Louis
5: Lewis is much better against righties (3.5 xFIP compared to 4.6 against lefties), and even though there’ll be a number of lefties in the lineup, I expect him to be pretty good against the ‘bigger bats’ like Pujols, Holliday, and Freese.
6: 9 runs would be needed for this play to lose, providing some solid ‘value’ on the UNDER.