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Author: [College Football] Topic: Michigan at Penn State (10/12/2013)
MrBig10 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#26
Posted: 10/11/2013 11:58:01 PM

Hello? Hello? No one is listening to me. 2.5 is a gift. How is PSU going to score with an average tailback whom I like and a decent wide receiver against Michigan team that is way ahead of Indiana's
defense? Hackenberg is a legit looking pro prospect!!

Make no mistake, Indiana offense can light it up, but their defense is really bad and PSU could not take advantage. Now PSU faces a stiffer defense and a not so potent offense.

Still, I will be shocked if Michigan does not win by 17.

Sorry PSU fans.

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#27
Posted: 10/12/2013 1:10:09 AM
Line moved 5 points. Michigan was +2.5 and is now -2.5. Obviously a huge amount of money was dumped on the Michigan side for that to happen. Now the game is capped much closer to where it should have been in the first place. I don't know why people over think these things. Good luck Michigan backers.
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#28
Posted: 10/12/2013 1:28:13 AM
Previous comment is wrong, completely wrong. 12.30 Friday night, oops.
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holtnt
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#29
Posted: 10/12/2013 3:04:45 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Fivesdadda:

Vegas doesn't give gifts.  
Doesn't really matter what two teams are playing, if 75-80% of the action is on the favorite side and the line is going DOWN, there's something off here.

PSU - Vegas doesn't give gifts.


I agree with you here…  Penn State coming off a loss against Indiana where defense is optional and now the 18TH ranked team in the country comes a calling and the line is less than a field goal…  Looks like the Wise Men in Vegas are begging for Michigan dollars…  Now with that said, in my humble opinion Penn State doesn’t have enough scholarship athletes on the roster to play with BIG Blue for four (4) quarters…   This line stinks like holy hxll and it's obviously a trap, but I had to invest small……..  so put me down for Michigan minus less than a field goal for two (2) C-Notes please.  Thanks! 


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#30
Posted: 10/12/2013 4:31:33 AM
Obvious trap play.  Crap, I totally forgot that trap plays are not real hahaha. 
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#31
Posted: 10/12/2013 5:47:38 AM
Michigan wins easily.  
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#32
Posted: 10/12/2013 7:10:34 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by phillies926:

90% expert picks for mich equals time to get a haircut. FADING Mich and takin PSU +2.5.


Penn State is not good.  You guys trying to be too sharp for college ball.  If this were NFL you guys would be bang on, but Michigan wins this easy.  Vegas is fooling you guys into thinking your sharp, lol.  Michigan rolls!!!
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#33
Posted: 10/12/2013 9:11:43 AM
[Quote: Originally Posted by MrBig10]

Hello? Hello? No one is listening to me. 2.5 is a gift. How is PSU going to score with an average tailback whom I like and a decent wide receiver against Michigan team that is way ahead of Indiana's
defense? Hackenberg is a legit looking pro prospect!!

Make no mistake, Indiana offense can light it up, but their defense is really bad and PSU could not take advantage. Now PSU faces a stiffer defense and a not so potent offense.

Still, I will be shocked if Michigan does not win by 17.

Sorry PSU fans.

MrBig. I respect your opinion and will admit I was blindsided by the Indiana win last week, but to call Robinson, decent and Zwinak, average is a little unfair. PSU looked dead last week and Indiana played great. I think this will be a close game and may come down to the last possession. Look for a 20-17 kind of game. Given that Michigan could only put up 28 at home against Akron, I think they may struggle with the PSU defense, with homecoming crowd, under the lights. This is a bitter rivalry given the history. I'm staying away but don't think this will be the "gift" everyone is expecting. Good luck.
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#34
Posted: 10/12/2013 11:05:09 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by johnobvious:

That's funny how you honestly think Vegas wants to get 50% on each side. They want 100% on the losing side and then a sliding scale down from there. If you honestly think they are going to get 50% action with -1.5 on UM, you are crazy. They are looking to trap a ton of people and they have a good feeling for Penn St unless some outrageous "smart" money has come in already, which is doubtful.

The pool I run has this game on it. I put the game at UM -5.5. Right now the pics are running 83% on Michigan. I'll update this as the week goes on.


I completely agree with your statement (highlighted)…  The Wise Men in Vegas have full time number crunchers that are paid to figure out the outcome of games all day everyday…  Are they one hundred percent accurate all the time…  NO, but they try and trap bettors on the wrong side period i.e. Penn State and Indiana last week which I just so happen to cash on the side and Moneyline.  With that said, I just don’t see that in this matchup…  The only way Penn State covers if somebody has gotten to Brady Hoke or that Devin Gardner kid with a suitcase full of money…  Outside of that, it’s too small of a line to shave points without running the risk of loosing the game all together!  I’ve seen that type of behavior over my years i.e. Clemson, New England, Green Bay, Indianapolis (with #18 under center), Philadelphia (with #7 under center) quickly comes to mind, but I haven’t seen that type of behavior out of Michigan… 


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#35
Posted: 10/12/2013 11:12:29 AM
For those who want an update, with 176 people reporting in my pool, 70.5% on Michigan at -5.5
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#36
Posted: 10/12/2013 11:38:05 AM
Gotta go Michigan here. Don't mind if I'm wrong as -2.5 is a line they should cover and I am not overthinking this one.
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#37
Posted: 10/12/2013 4:27:03 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by johnobvious:

Zud, the bottom line as I see it is the public is going to be heavy on Michigan with this line. Vegas knows that and Vegas isn't in the habit of giving money away. Could they be wrong? Of course, and they may take a bath but something is up and they are willing to throw 50/50 out the window in order to rake it in large.

And how many games actually go off with half the money on either side? Very, very few. If it was such a huge deal to the books, they would be adjusting the lines a whole lot more than they do. To your point, would they be happy going 50/50 every week and just taking the vig? Sure. But they really are looking for around 55/45 and that is a huge swing over the long haul so lines like this are going to happen when they think they have the edge against what the public perceives.

Sure, my sample size is small and they aren't a bunch of sharps. 183 entries in the thing. Covers is running 74/26 on this game at the -2 range. My point was to show that even at -5.5, people will go for Michigan so why doesn't Vegas have a higher line if they think PSU is the play? Give themselves some insurance and keep it at a key number like -3.5. Just saying it sounds fishy.

My two cents. Good Luck with your picks this weekend.
You are right to a degree, but think about it my friend, if Vegas got 50 - 50 on EVERY SINGLE thing it put on the board from Jan 1 to Dec 31, well we are talking untold billions in juice, at least a few dont you think.
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#38
Posted: 10/12/2013 4:44:29 PM
Took Michigan.
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#39
Posted: 10/12/2013 6:11:56 PM
these bums (Mich) are 14 down plus cover, well and truly trapped
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#40
Posted: 10/12/2013 6:40:48 PM
Biscuit, they need to make more than 50/50 because of overhead. Some of the heads of those books make tall dollars because their lines are set to win a tick over 50%.

Hey, I am a conspiracy guy so take it with a grain of salt but it all comes down to business and they know a lot more of what is going on than the average bettor. Everything they make above the juice is super important to the overall bottom line and making those boat payments. Not to mention that the casinos are traded on the stock market and Wall Street wants to see profits. If the book is losing, the suits get uptight. peace
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#41
Posted: 10/12/2013 6:48:57 PM
I was COMPLETELY wrong about this game.
I did not know Devin Gardener was Vince Young II.
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#42
Posted: 10/12/2013 8:51:12 PM
As I'm sitting here with PSU +3.5, wishing UM's kicker could make a f---ing field goal, are you kidding me?
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#43
Posted: 10/12/2013 9:04:45 PM
And for his 3RD miss in a row which would have paid me! 
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#44
Posted: 10/12/2013 9:20:11 PM
Aaah, so PSU finally wins straight up. That's what is  supposed to happen when it's sharp anyway.
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#45
Posted: 10/12/2013 9:35:47 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by johnobvious:

Biscuit, they need to make more than 50/50 because of overhead. Some of the heads of those books make tall dollars because their lines are set to win a tick over 50%.

Hey, I am a conspiracy guy so take it with a grain of salt but it all comes down to business and they know a lot more of what is going on than the average bettor. Everything they make above the juice is super important to the overall bottom line and making those boat payments. Not to mention that the casinos are traded on the stock market and Wall Street wants to see profits. If the book is losing, the suits get uptight. peace
the business model is this, if they get 50 - 50 ... they cant lose.
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holtnt
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#46
Posted: 10/12/2013 11:28:02 PM

That was really sad to watch…  Nice job Penn State and Over backers!

 

Michigan 

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