2nd half road FADE system

Forum: Systems & Strategies Page 31 of 33 «  29 30 31 32 33   »
Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: 2nd half road FADE system
Pendo PM Pendo
Joined: Mar 2011
Posts: 3333
 
Pendo
Participation Meter
Veteran
quote#751
Posted: 8/14/2017 5:39:25 PM
Fade Record: 7-0
and
Double dip record: 10-0

Friars take the A Game.

Danrules24 PM Danrules24
Joined: May 2012
Posts: 4911
 
Danrules24
Participation Meter
Veteran
quote#752
Posted: 8/15/2017 1:44:48 AM
SD (fade Philly) wins on A game. We go to double dip A game Tuesday on SD (fade Philly). 

We also have LAD (fade ChiSox) A game. 
Nuscas PM Nuscas
Joined: Feb 2011
Posts: 623
 
Nuscas
Participation Meter
Rookie
quote#753
Posted: 8/15/2017 8:16:42 AM
Paying -350 on LAD or going RL?
Danrules24 PM Danrules24
Joined: May 2012
Posts: 4911
 
Danrules24
Participation Meter
Veteran
quote#754
Posted: 8/15/2017 8:32:52 AM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by Nuscas:

Paying -350 on LAD or going RL?

I'm personally doing RL, I'll never lay -350.


PJBelle PM PJBelle
Joined: Feb 2002
Posts: 95
 
PJBelle
Participation Meter
Prospect
quote#755
Posted: 8/15/2017 8:52:53 AM
Hey Dan,

I've been following your "After All-Star Break Fade System".  How much do you wager on an individual game?  Does it depend on the line?

For example:  Today the Dodgers are -155 on the runline.  Do you wager $155 to profit $100?

Thank you!
Danrules24 PM Danrules24
Joined: May 2012
Posts: 4911
 
Danrules24
Participation Meter
Veteran
quote#756
Posted: 8/15/2017 9:18:34 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by PJBelle:

Hey Dan,

I've been following your "After All-Star Break Fade System".  How much do you wager on an individual game?  Does it depend on the line?

For example:  Today the Dodgers are -155 on the runline.  Do you wager $155 to profit $100?

Thank you!

I'm not going to say how much I bet, but I will say that in this example I will risk 1.55 units to win 1 unit. Since this is a chase system, I have set the unit size as 1/2 of 1% of bankroll. Between the 2 systems and double dips, I have pocketed 40 wins, which is 20% increase on bankroll. Slow and steady, year over year.

PJBelle PM PJBelle
Joined: Feb 2002
Posts: 95
 
PJBelle
Participation Meter
Prospect
quote#757
Posted: 8/15/2017 9:29:44 AM
I totally understand Dan!  Thanks for the info!  The percentages really help!  It's all about money management!

Thanks for sharing!

Phil
therealdutch PM therealdutch
Joined: Feb 2017
Posts: 336
 
therealdutch
Participation Meter
Prospect
quote#758
Posted: 8/15/2017 11:04:50 AM
curious on the RL strategy.  b/c this system is about odds of winning 1 of 5.  not winning by a certain amount. but if your wager doesn't hit on that one, you have to chase it at another seemingly high ML or give points again in the B game. 

i.e. if LAD wins by 1 tonight, that's a W for the system, but your wager loses.  someone who bet the ML would be starting the dip tomorrow, again, probably at a high cost w/ Darvish on the mound, whereas, you're chasing your RL loss. 

this is why i like this and the PASB system.  they essentially take 'handicapping' out of it.
LuckysDad713 PM LuckysDad713
Joined: Jul 2017
Posts: 75
 
LuckysDad713
Participation Meter
Prospect
quote#759
Posted: 8/15/2017 12:33:36 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by therealdutch:

curious on the RL strategy.  b/c this system is about odds of winning 1 of 5.  not winning by a certain amount. but if your wager doesn't hit on that one, you have to chase it at another seemingly high ML or give points again in the B game. 

i.e. if LAD wins by 1 tonight, that's a W for the system, but your wager loses.  someone who bet the ML would be starting the dip tomorrow, again, probably at a high cost w/ Darvish on the mound, whereas, you're chasing your RL loss. 

this is why i like this and the PASB system.  they essentially take 'handicapping' out of it.
the Dodgers have won 83 games this season with only 9 one run wins...  
therealdutch PM therealdutch
Joined: Feb 2017
Posts: 336
 
therealdutch
Participation Meter
Prospect
quote#760
Posted: 8/15/2017 1:31:49 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by LuckysDad713:

the Dodgers have won 83 games this season with only 9 one run wins...  

they've had 9 WALK OFF one-run wins.

better double check those numbers.  here's a link if you want to confirm.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/LAD/2017-schedule-scores.shtml

so, they've had 20 one-run wins.  let's play rough math real quick and net those out if you're playing only RL on dodgers (assuming fav for every game this year).  they'd be 63-54 or ~.540 on the RL. 

again, now you're getting into handicapping the games, and that's not what this system is about fundamentally.

I fully understand what Dan is doing by taking the RL to reduce exposure versus the ML, my question was how he treats it if the RL doesn't hit as it pertains to the system and the double dip game(s).
Danrules24 PM Danrules24
Joined: May 2012
Posts: 4911
 
Danrules24
Participation Meter
Veteran
quote#761
Posted: 8/15/2017 1:41:36 PM
When I said I play the RL, that is just my personal way to bet it. The system is determined by the money line. If I lose on the RL because of the one run I'll either just treat as a loss and continue bye chase or just make it up on a different chase.
Posted using a mobile device.
therealdutch PM therealdutch
Joined: Feb 2017
Posts: 336
 
therealdutch
Participation Meter
Prospect
quote#762
Posted: 8/15/2017 2:13:12 PM
oh well.  either way i took the ML
The_Extremist PM The_Extremist
Joined: Mar 2016
Posts: 1007
 
The_Extremist
Participation Meter
Veteran
quote#763
Posted: 8/16/2017 12:40:47 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by LuckysDad713:

the Dodgers have won 83 games this season with only 9 one run wins...  


Your #s are wrong. out of 83 , 20 have been 1 run wins and 63 more than one.

they are 66-51 on the RL overall
and  63-20 when they win on the RL
Danrules24 PM Danrules24
Joined: May 2012
Posts: 4911
 
Danrules24
Participation Meter
Veteran
quote#764
Posted: 8/16/2017 1:17:29 AM
SD (fade Philly) wins on double dip A game. Philly has 5 left so we are on another A game Wednesday on SD. 

LAD (fade Sox) wins on A game. ChiSox have 5 left, we have double dip A game Wednesday on LAD. 
leo81 PM leo81
Joined: Jul 2013
Posts: 270
 
leo81
Participation Meter
Prospect
quote#765
Posted: 8/16/2017 10:22:23 AM
Dan,thanks for another great season!
mike7002 PM mike7002
Joined: Jan 2010
Posts: 455
 
mike7002
Participation Meter
Prospect
quote#766
Posted: 8/16/2017 10:34:27 AM
Wow;  the wins keep on coming.  Nice job.
Danrules24 PM Danrules24
Joined: May 2012
Posts: 4911
 
Danrules24
Participation Meter
Veteran
quote#767
Posted: 8/17/2017 1:36:17 AM
SD (fade Philly) wins on double dip A game and Philly is done. 
LAD (fade Sox) wins on double dip A game and Sox are done. 
Next system play is Aug 22 fade SD. 
rickybuckets PM rickybuckets
Joined: May 2015
Posts: 601
 
rickybuckets
Participation Meter
Rookie
quote#768
Posted: 8/17/2017 1:52:23 AM
Danrules24 PM Danrules24
Joined: May 2012
Posts: 4911
 
Danrules24
Participation Meter
Veteran
quote#769
Posted: 8/22/2017 11:37:56 AM
Tuesday we are on STL (fade SD) A game.
Danrules24 PM Danrules24
Joined: May 2012
Posts: 4911
 
Danrules24
Participation Meter
Veteran
quote#770
Posted: 8/22/2017 11:42:46 AM

Updated record

Fade Record: 9-0

16 year record 2002-2017 of 405-1

  • A: 9-0
  • B:     
  • C: 
  • D:  
  • E:

Double dip record: 13-0

16 year record 2002-2017 of 611-4

  • A: 10-3
  • B: 3-0
  • C: 
  • D:   
  • E


mike7002 PM mike7002
Joined: Jan 2010
Posts: 455
 
mike7002
Participation Meter
Prospect
quote#771
Posted: 8/22/2017 4:55:03 PM
GL Dan;  I like the under on that game.
Danrules24 PM Danrules24
Joined: May 2012
Posts: 4911
 
Danrules24
Participation Meter
Veteran
quote#772
Posted: 8/23/2017 9:40:38 AM
Wednesday we have the B game on STL 
Danrules24 PM Danrules24
Joined: May 2012
Posts: 4911
 
Danrules24
Participation Meter
Veteran
quote#773
Posted: 8/23/2017 11:18:23 PM
STL (fade SD) wins on the B game. SD is done, no double dip. Next play Friday. 
chaser15 PM chaser15
Joined: Oct 2014
Posts: 691
 
chaser15
Participation Meter
Rookie
quote#774
Posted: 8/24/2017 1:01:16 AM
MLBNewbie808 PM MLBNewbie808
Joined: Aug 2017
Posts: 5
 
MLBNewbie808
Participation Meter
Prospect
quote#775
Posted: 8/24/2017 8:50:13 PM
Hey guys! First of all, I am a newbie to MLB betting. First year actually. I was up a little during the first half of the season, but now I'm DOWN! Second, Very interesting system (FADE). Looks promising. Hope we all make some $$$$. Good luck to everyone! 
Forum: Systems & Strategies Page 31 of 33 «  29 30 31 32 33   »
You have entered the forum as a GUEST. 
You must login/register to post or reply.
Desktop View: Switch to Mobile View