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Author: [College Football] Topic: Kentucky at Western Kentucky (08/31/2013)
Covers send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Pinnacle Sports |
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#1
Posted: 7/3/2013 2:51:33 PM

Away:  Kentucky [0-0 ATS]
Home:  Western Kentucky [0-0 ATS]

Game Time: 7:00 PM
Stadium: LP Field

Recent Meetings:
09/15/12 - WKU 32 vs. UK 31
09/01/11 - WKU 3 vs. UK 14
09/11/10 - WKU 28 vs. UK 63

Team Leaders:

Kentucky:
Passing: N/A
Rushing: N/A
Receiving: N/A

Western Kentucky:
Passing: N/A
Rushing: N/A
Receiving: N/A

More:
Live Odds
In-Depth Matchup Information
Consensus Betting Information

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#2
Posted: 7/24/2013 9:46:32 AM

Bobby Petrino owns Kentucky.

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#3
Posted: 8/20/2013 1:27:21 PM
Petrino will outright coach his way to a WIN in this one.
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#4
Posted: 8/22/2013 7:53:19 PM
ya like the home team getting ....and this will be redemption for Petrino but careful as Kentucky might have best team in years although not saying much like a close game ...taking the point bol
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#5
Posted: 8/25/2013 11:00:09 AM

Normally I would agree with Bobby Petrino owning UK. However, UK has finally found some excellent coaches of their own and the UK player's are as excited as ever to start the new Stoops era. One thing that bothers me a bit though is the QB situation. Neither Whitlow nor Smith have been named starter but both will play. Neither had a stellar campaign last year. It just bothers me that one of them has not moved ahead of the other and that tells me both have made their share of mistakes in camp. Should be a close game and gun to my head I would take the points. But I do not bet against my own team.    

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#6
Posted: 8/25/2013 5:06:10 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by JROCK1966:

Normally I would agree with Bobby Petrino owning UK. However, UK has finally found some excellent coaches of their own and the UK player's are as excited as ever to start the new Stoops era. One thing that bothers me a bit though is the QB situation. Neither Whitlow nor Smith have been named starter but both will play. Neither had a stellar campaign last year. It just bothers me that one of them has not moved ahead of the other and that tells me both have made their share of mistakes in camp. Should be a close game and gun to my head I would take the points. But I do not bet against my own team.    

While Ilike uk in this game you have no idea if these coaches are going to be good or not. Time will tell. 
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#7
Posted: 8/27/2013 12:37:11 AM
W ky+6
Posted using a mobile device.
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#8
Posted: 8/27/2013 2:42:28 PM
Stoops over Petrino by 7
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#9
Posted: 8/29/2013 2:20:29 PM

This may be the very best play on the board this weekend.  There are a number of line moves as well as peculiar betting action to make this game one to watch closely.

1.  In a game of non public teams like this, one does not see heavy action on either side typically.  However, so far this week, this game is easily in the upper 3rd of games with the most action.  The question is why?  See below.

2. There is a divergence between where the consensus at Sports Insights (real money being bet ) as compared to the internet consensus sites ( ie Covers) which is just regular dudes putting up opinions but not backing their opinions with real money.  SI is showing money on WKY (sharp money?) at 59% while Cover is showing Kentucky at 60% (square opinion not backed by $) as of Thursday.  This may change but if it does not change significantly, this will point to a play on W Ky.

3.  The parlay betting is heavily in favor of Kentucky ( over 70% at Sports Insights).  This is how one can determine which is the real public side. In this case, the public is all over Kentucky.  I never like to back the public side so this also points to W Ky.  Backing public sides in games  will only win  around 48 to 49% per year on average.

4.  There is a reverse line move on W Ky.  This situation is pretty strong typically and has hit about 55% over the last few seasons.  This indicator also points to W Ky.

If there are any fundamental reasons, trends, situational plays that would negate this analysis, please post.  I am not interested in reading " Kentucky is going to kick their behind...etc" but would love to see some informed opinions on this game.

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#10
Posted: 8/31/2013 10:51:37 AM

Greetings All!

 

I normally don’t fool with anything until week three (gives me an opportunity to eyeball everybody), however Bobby P. (who I LOVE) did not inherit that loaded squad from last year AND although the new coaching staff in Fayette County Kentucky hasn’t proven anything as of yet, there roster is still 1.25 deep at every position with SEC caliber athletes.

 

With that said, put me down for a shiny new Nickel on the THE University of Kentucky minus the chalk to start the season off right.  Thanks!  

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#11
Posted: 8/31/2013 11:41:51 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by combato:

This may be the very best play on the board this weekend.  There are a number of line moves as well as peculiar betting action to make this game one to watch closely.

1.  In a game of non public teams like this, one does not see heavy action on either side typically.  However, so far this week, this game is easily in the upper 3rd of games with the most action.  The question is why?  See below.

2. There is a divergence between where the consensus at Sports Insights (real money being bet ) as compared to the internet consensus sites ( ie Covers) which is just regular dudes putting up opinions but not backing their opinions with real money.  SI is showing money on WKY (sharp money?) at 59% while Cover is showing Kentucky at 60% (square opinion not backed by $) as of Thursday.  This may change but if it does not change significantly, this will point to a play on W Ky.

3.  The parlay betting is heavily in favor of Kentucky ( over 70% at Sports Insights).  This is how one can determine which is the real public side. In this case, the public is all over Kentucky.  I never like to back the public side so this also points to W Ky.  Backing public sides in games  will only win  around 48 to 49% per year on average.

4.  There is a reverse line move on W Ky.  This situation is pretty strong typically and has hit about 55% over the last few seasons.  This indicator also points to W Ky.

If there are any fundamental reasons, trends, situational plays that would negate this analysis, please post.  I am not interested in reading " Kentucky is going to kick their behind...etc" but would love to see some informed opinions on this game.


The whole "very best play" copy n paste is hilarious, seen you use it on another game...and I'm only about 10 games in on the sked.. be original..lol... 
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#12
Posted: 8/31/2013 2:46:53 PM
I'll take the points   
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#13
Posted: 8/31/2013 11:01:21 PM

I always like to see “brothers” get their shot, but that Caucasian QB (Max Smith) should without a doubt be the starter QB going forward.  I would also suggest they convert Whitlow to a receiver/HB position as he doesn't have the mental aptitude to play QB at that level. 

I’m going to give Stoops a break because this is his first go round in the BIG chair, but he really looked a little lost on the sideline tonight…   With that said, nice job Western Kentucky and Over backers…

 

Wildcat 

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#14
Posted: 9/1/2013 7:59:03 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by UofLCards:

While Ilike uk in this game you have no idea if these coaches are going to be good or not. Time will tell. 
Lets see....last nights game not-withstanding, Stoops has an excellent track record of developing solid defense at every D1 school he has coached and Brown had NCAA top 10 offenses where he has coached...nope I guess those facts do not matter.  
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#15
Posted: 9/1/2013 4:27:01 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by JROCK1966:

Lets see....last nights game not-withstanding, Stoops has an excellent track record of developing solid defense at every D1 school he has coached and Brown had NCAA top 10 offenses where he has coached...nope I guess those facts do not matter.  


Very good points…  I wasn’t impressed with anybody on the defensive side of the ball except #40…  They don’t “strike” folks when they arrive…  All successful teams carry a reputation of “striking” you when they show up to the ball.  That defense wasn’t impressive at all, but Max Smith under center from the outset would have produced a win and nine times out of 10 a cover…

 

Move Whitlow to a skilled position so he can be on the field 2+ times a drive… 


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#16
Posted: 9/7/2013 8:56:06 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by holtnt:



Very good points…  I wasn’t impressed with anybody on the defensive side of the ball except #40…  They don’t “strike” folks when they arrive…  All successful teams carry a reputation of “striking” you when they show up to the ball.  That defense wasn’t impressive at all, but Max Smith under center from the outset would have produced a win and nine times out of 10 a cover…

 

Move Whitlow to a skilled position so he can be on the field 2+ times a drive… 


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#17
Posted: 9/7/2013 10:11:45 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by JROCK1966:





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