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Author: [Streak Survivor] Topic: Serious Streak Survivor Strategies
smoothd20
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#8076
Posted: 4/29/2012 1:39:05 PM
Very interesting movement on that Oak-Balt game. I would like Czech_Razor and Booyahz to take a look at the history of that movement and tell us what you think. I ended up taking Baltimore on the streak and on Bovada. It appears that what happened and correct me if I'm wrong. Baltimore went from co-favorites with them being slightly higher to dogs. But the public was with Baltimore on this one. As the odds for Oakland went down it appears the Sharps were conflicted because right at the end Baltimore odds went down from +103 to even. In this scenario could it be that the Sharps were battling each other? What tilted me towards Baltimore was when I looked at the pitching history of Hunter against Oakland. It was superb. I called it the reverse Buster move but would "War among the Sharps" be more  accurate? Very interesting to say the least.
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#8077
Posted: 4/29/2012 2:14:26 PM
Okay guys:

The clips total has moved back to 184.5. This is why we wait to see what the line does. I have to check to see if it moved back up progressively or if it was an adjustment but the lines are MOVING today.

The lakers/Denver total is moving up also. The total is higher than it was earlier today so Denver and the OVER are looking very sharp right now.

Mem game needs to be reviewed throughout the day until game time. This line is acting fishy so so far it's a no-play

CURRENT SHARP LINE IS DENVER AND OVER

NOTHING YET ON MEMPHIS
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booyahz123
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#8078
Posted: 4/29/2012 2:23:31 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by smoothd20:

Very interesting movement on that Oak-Balt game. I would like Czech_Razor and Booyahz to take a look at the history of that movement and tell us what you think. I ended up taking Baltimore on the streak and on Bovada. It appears that what happened and correct me if I'm wrong. Baltimore went from co-favorites with them being slightly higher to dogs. But the public was with Baltimore on this one. As the odds for Oakland went down it appears the Sharps were conflicted because right at the end Baltimore odds went down from +103 to even. In this scenario could it be that the Sharps were battling each other? What tilted me towards Baltimore was when I looked at the pitching history of Hunter against Oakland. It was superb. I called it the reverse Buster move but would "War among the Sharps" be more  accurate? Very interesting to say the least.

based on the line movements on here I took the A's  they went from a +103 to a -106 with almost a 50/50 %

I look at pitcher matchups too because I like to play some totals
If you want to know what I was thinking on other games I am currently 15th on the MLB contest. Just click on my entry.  The picks I make are based on line movements that I liked.  The totals I have no system for.  

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#8079
Posted: 4/29/2012 2:24:10 PM
Warning: do not jump on the Memphis game yet.

I explained in earlier post why Mem/under looked sharp but this line is acting fishy right now. We will not make a decision on that game until much later today.


Denver is coming up and Den and the over look very strong. Iiked the over earlier at 201.5 and it's moved to 203 now. This is an OVER play in my book and meets ALL 3 criteria.

WAGERED PLAYS TODAY (I'm betting now)

Denver +4.5
Denver over 203
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booyahz123
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#8080
Posted: 4/29/2012 2:30:16 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by smoothd20:

My observation and this really pertains to baseball more than other sport is this. I love the knowledge that Czech_Razor is putting out and Booyahz has been supplying us different angles for a long time as well. When I look at a game and again we're talking baseball here. Sometimes you have to go beyond the line movements. I'm big on pitching matchups and recent trends. Also as we have discussed in this club on many occasions you have to look at the intangibles. I will give you 2 examples. The Angels are struggling mightily while Cleveland is playing over their head IMO. The Angels call up their top prospect in Trout. Now that alone will bring excitement and focus to the team and with Haren pitching after they have lost 5 straight. I figured it was a good time for a win. Not to forget Haren has a great record against the Indians. All those pointed to a big bet by me on the Angels. 
Another example is Miami. Now I laid off of Miami because I have gone with them 2 days in a row. One game I lost my streak and the other I lost my money. This is isn't good. But I did take them on the Baseball contest thinking they had a good chance of winning. Signs were, long losing streak and a good pitcher in Sanchez. I didn't bet it because I wasn't sure after 2 disappointing losses in a row. My point is that when betting baseball sometimes you have to look at other factors especially if the line movements don't add up.

the Angels was the pick based on line movement alone Smooth.  I make my picks for the MLB contest based on line movement because when I didnt I dropped from 10th to 93rd in 3 days.  2 days later using line movement picks back at 15th and was as high as 4th but tried the totals yesterday and split several games having the total wrong
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booyahz123
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#8081
Posted: 4/29/2012 2:33:49 PM
The starting % is important to determine if line movement makes sense.  You need to factor the % change with the line change to draw a conclusion with my system.
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#8082
Posted: 4/29/2012 2:40:16 PM
SmoothD I mentioned before its hard to differentiate those moves so close to a pk, because of the possibility of head fakes. A line going from -104 to +103 does not fall within the purviews of my personal system.

Denver (NBA) is a road dog playing a higher seed Lakers and the total was at 201.5, Denver +5.5. Lakers games aren't usually that high but they have went over a lot in last month and everyone knows Denver can score.

Busters are on Lakers at home and the under.

Denver line has moved progressively from 5.5 to 4.5 and holding strong. Also the total has moved up to 203.

Lastly, and really most importantly for me, I liked Den and the over all along, as originally posted. This is a play for me. Mem and under is not as they never really satisfied rule 3.

I'm trying to fix this problem. I wanted to share my observation on Mem and the under earlier, but I shouldn't have called them "sharp" at least not yet because 1) it's too early and we haven't figured it out yet and 2) because I even said I didn't like Mem anyways. I do personally like the under but it hasn't qualified YET.

Okay that's all I have for now, current plays are Den and over and that's it.
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#8083
Posted: 4/29/2012 2:52:43 PM
Ps I am ONLY gonna post WAGERED BETS from now on. I don't want to mention a game and then someone bet it and then me take it back later. Sorry about this.

Only wagers so far today are Den and over.
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#8084
Posted: 4/29/2012 3:09:14 PM
Also I'm not necessarily changing my mind on Mem/under I actually still like them just had to explain why not betting them yet. The more I think about the game more I like them 
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smoothd20
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#8085
Posted: 4/29/2012 3:09:16 PM
Being a huge Laker fan I don't even like betting on my favorite teams even though I do it sometimes but betting against them is high treason in my book. So I wish you the best on that one but GO LAKERS!
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booyahz123
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#8086
Posted: 4/29/2012 3:30:31 PM
I stopped liking the Lakers.  I dont like the guys they put on the floor.  when they had Lew Alcindor then I liked them.  How can you not like a guy who trained with Bruce Lee.  Now they are a team of fool off the court.  The only reason I can handle Kobe is because I have some good rookie cards of his.  I remember meeting Paul O'Neil in Baltimore after the game at a mall.  He was getting Jeter a BDay present.  Class Act all the way and because we where in Yankee gear getting garbage from Oriole fans he signed some hats for us.  Brosius was with him and they were getting in a cab. Paul made the cab wait, told Brosius to sign as well.  Brosius  refused and sat in the cab with an attitude.  Paul gave him a look that said thats not cool.  Our response to Brosius was "we dont want your autograph anyway your not a real Yankee", which made Paul laugh.  lol

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smoothd20
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#8087
Posted: 4/29/2012 4:10:40 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by booyahz123:

I stopped liking the Lakers.  I dont like the guys they put on the floor.  when they had Lew Alcindor then I liked them.  How can you not like a guy who trained with Bruce Lee.  Now they are a team of fool off the court.  The only reason I can handle Kobe is because I have some good rookie cards of his.  I remember meeting Paul O'Neil in Baltimore after the game at a mall.  He was getting Jeter a BDay present.  Class Act all the way and because we where in Yankee gear getting garbage from Oriole fans he signed some hats for us.  Brosius was with him and they were getting in a cab. Paul made the cab wait, told Brosius to sign as well.  Brosius  refused and sat in the cab with an attitude.  Paul gave him a look that said thats not cool.  Our response to Brosius was "we dont want your autograph anyway your not a real Yankee", which made Paul laugh.  lol

Great story. I'm listening to Paulie now on YES. Got my Yankees on MLB.com. Paul was definitely a real Yankee. Brosius was just stand in but he did have a few good moments. 
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smoothd20
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#8088
Posted: 4/29/2012 4:14:41 PM
Loved the way that Oak-Balt game ended. Down 2-0 in the 9th Matt Wieters hits a 2 run Double that just missed being a Walk-off. Not to worry because Wilson Betemit comes up and hits a 3 run blast to send the home crowd home happy. The "War among the Sharps" goes to the Baltimore backers. Thank you Orioles!
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booyahz123
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#8089
Posted: 4/29/2012 4:26:49 PM
Nice win Smooth 

Bullpens in baseball this year are terrible. Something to consider when making a pick........ how long will the starter go and how is the bullpen

Im only picking around 57% with the way Im picking



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booyahz123
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#8090
Posted: 4/29/2012 4:29:41 PM
GO FLYERS!!!!
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#8091
Posted: 4/29/2012 4:43:22 PM
Nuggets -1/2 2nd half
Over 100 2nd half

Both these plays qualify under 1/2 time system according to original lines and 1st half action. 

Denver 40-50 at halftime looking for them to cover second half and game to go at least 190 total. 
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#8092
Posted: 4/29/2012 4:45:47 PM
Playoffs are nuts so far
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#8093
Posted: 4/29/2012 6:14:25 PM
Wow I suck this weekend. 1-1 halftime and 0-2 for game. friggin Denver busters. 


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#8094
Posted: 4/29/2012 6:23:57 PM
The line moves have been Garbage so far here in the playoffs pretty weird variance we're seeing. 0-2 start today another great game for the boostere's
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smoothd20
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#8095
Posted: 4/29/2012 7:47:37 PM
Booyahz-What's up with the "Covers Rehab" Avatar. Are you in trouble with the Mods again? 
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#8096
Posted: 4/29/2012 8:25:51 PM
Whats up Fella's!!!!!

I haven't been on here at all for awhile, this new job has kept me pretty busy for the last year. But hey, well worth working in the oil and gas industry!!

I just got back into betting within this last week.  Over the last 5 days, i have for some stupid and undisciplined reason bet on about 8, 4-6 game parlays, from odds ranging around -130, all the way to the worst, astros at +200, alone with Arizona being at +155 today. Every single friggin one of those i have only lost 1 game on, the last one was, 

SF -1.5
SF under 7
LAD under 6.5
Ariz +155
and the icing on the cake, UNDER 47, celtics 1st Quarter, bullshit goal tending call cost me

all my parlays i bet a min of $100 and a max of 200.

If i would have just been betting heads up on every single game, i would be ballin right now!!!

So, i have came to the conclusion, that here in a week to 3 weeks, I'm goin to VEGAS. Not to have fun, but to just sit in a hotel all day long and research my games. I am going to attempt to double down on my bets and only making one play every 1-2 days. I'll stay till i lose my first game.

I really think i got this y'all!!
anyone else down??
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#8097
Posted: 4/29/2012 9:12:04 PM
RapĂ ged again today 1-3 so far. 

Taking Memphis and under. GL 
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#8098
Posted: 4/29/2012 9:19:37 PM
What the hell happened to Booyahz???
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crushalot22
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#8099
Posted: 4/29/2012 9:27:26 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by edwardglennx3:

Whats up Fella's!!!!!

I haven't been on here at all for awhile, this new job has kept me pretty busy for the last year. But hey, well worth working in the oil and gas industry!!

I just got back into betting within this last week.  Over the last 5 days, i have for some stupid and undisciplined reason bet on about 8, 4-6 game parlays, from odds ranging around -130, all the way to the worst, astros at +200, alone with Arizona being at +155 today. Every single friggin one of those i have only lost 1 game on, the last one was, 

SF -1.5
SF under 7
LAD under 6.5
Ariz +155
and the icing on the cake, UNDER 47, celtics 1st Quarter, bullshit goal tending call cost me

all my parlays i bet a min of $100 and a max of 200.

If i would have just been betting heads up on every single game, i would be ballin right now!!!

So, i have came to the conclusion, that here in a week to 3 weeks, I'm goin to VEGAS. Not to have fun, but to just sit in a hotel all day long and research my games. I am going to attempt to double down on my bets and only making one play every 1-2 days. I'll stay till i lose my first game.

I really think i got this y'all!!
anyone else down??

 

Let me know when you get here.  We can meet up and have a cold one.  

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smoothd20
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#8100
Posted: 4/29/2012 10:11:47 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by crushalot22:

What the hell happened to Booyahz???

Looks like we have some haters hiding in the shadows and for some reason they seem to pick one of our guys for some reason including myself. Booyahz PM me and I told him to email Rizz and he will look into it. It's total BS.
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