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Author:	[NBA Betting] Topic: NBA - Game Breakdowns (4-3-12)
RAXX	View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Banned Joined: Mar 2012 Posts: 40 Location:	#26 Posted: 4/3/2012 1:50:07 PM What has that guy spammed 89 times.
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PitchBlack2011	RSI View Space \| Blog \| Friends \| Playbook \| My Sportsbook: BetOnline.ag \|
Rookie Joined: Nov 2011 Posts: 896 Location: West Virginia	#27 Posted: 4/3/2012 1:53:53 PM si1ly...did you see the entry I posted in your other thread... The Plays that have greater than 1 (POV) but less than 3 (POV) are covering at a rate of about 67%... To me this makes sense...differences of (1-3) are big enough to cause a difference, but bigger differences (3 or more) might mean that something else is causing the difference (injuries,revenge, motivation factors, etc...) Tonight the plays that fit would be Toronto, Memphis, New York, Philadelphia, and Sacramento...gonna keep an eye on these and see what happens... Thanks for bringing this to the forums...if you need help with anything, let me know...
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si1ly	View Space \| Blog \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Banned Joined: Oct 2008 Posts: 12061 Location: Florida	#28 Posted: 4/3/2012 2:09:09 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by PitchBlack2011: si1ly...did you see the entry I posted in your other thread... The Plays that have greater than 1 (POV) but less than 3 (POV) are covering at a rate of about 67%... To me this makes sense...differences of (1-3) are big enough to cause a difference, but bigger differences (3 or more) might mean that something else is causing the difference (injuries,revenge, motivation factors, etc...) Tonight the plays that fit would be Toronto, Memphis, New York, Philadelphia, and Sacramento...gonna keep an eye on these and see what happens... Thanks for bringing this to the forums...if you need help with anything, let me know... That's a good observation... sound logic.. I've been thinking the same thing. Major adjustments might be the oddsmakers tipping their hand that something else is going on in the game. Minor adjustments might be actual value - and following the value is a great way to beat the books in the long run. I'll keep posting updates to those power rankings through the end of the season (although not as frequently as before). The numbers won't change very drastically at this point in the season since each game is worth less and less against the season long averages.
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andreagassi6969	RSI View Space \| Blog \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Hall of Fame Joined: Nov 2006 Posts: 20265 Location: Nevada	#29 Posted: 4/3/2012 2:15:27 PM
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si1ly	View Space \| Blog \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Banned Joined: Oct 2008 Posts: 12061 Location: Florida	#30 Posted: 4/3/2012 6:15:06 PM Sounds like Irving will be playing. Cleveland will get a much needed boost to their offense with him in the line-up. They're averaging in the mid 80's over the last 10 games and they're giving up about 100. The Spurs - a public team - have covered 63% of their games. Oddsmakers never like to see this happen. Given their run in March and Cleveland's decline, it's easy to see why this spread is inflated all the way up to 9. There is going to be value betting against San Antonio for the next couple games if not the rest of the season.
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ToyPro	View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Prospect Joined: Aug 2009 Posts: 364 Location: Florida	#31 Posted: 4/3/2012 6:40:50 PM Thank You si1ly this is great info Good Luck
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lighthand	View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \| My Sportsbook: bet365 \|
Prospect Joined: Apr 2012 Posts: 2 Location: Russia	#32 Posted: 4/4/2012 7:46:01 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by si1ly: The most comprehensive single-page advanced statistical NBA game breakdown on the web. Also includes a proprietary score prediction model to determine value against the spread. Thanks si1ly, I really liked your approach to statistics. Could you send me the calculation formula for the further development and improvement. I'm a little refined it and send you the result. My email: lighthand79@gmail.com. Thank you! NBA - Game Breakdowns (4-3-12)
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gillster18	RSI View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \| My Sportsbook: BookMaker \|
Rookie Joined: Jan 2012 Posts: 743 Location: Connecticut	#33 Posted: 4/4/2012 7:59:34 AM Great work with the chart Si1ly but some guys are over cooking it. seems the o/u's are ok as 2 teams factors into it on number facts only! last night the 2 o/u's in the system went to the window. I have an axiom I use simply, you don't bet BAD teams even if they fall into a system ie Clev. last night! Result 2-0 at the window. Thanks Si1ly but can't stop thinking about my good friend of over 25 years JJ HENRY down in FT. Worth. Put a call into him last night got no answer. hope he and his family are ok...GOD BLESS
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PitchBlack2011	RSI View Space \| Blog \| Friends \| Playbook \| My Sportsbook: BetOnline.ag \|
Rookie Joined: Nov 2011 Posts: 896 Location: West Virginia	#34 Posted: 4/4/2012 12:55:22 PM Any game breakdowns for today...
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