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[MLB Betting] Topic: 8/6 - MLB Breakdown Sheets |
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Lar1212 |
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#26 Posted: 8/6/2012 11:46:37 AM  |
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cardifkill |
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#27 Posted: 8/6/2012 12:14:05 PM  Thanks again Silly.
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Pasteur |
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#28 Posted: 8/6/2012 12:51:17 PM
Thanks for the sheets silly! 
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rr207 |
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#29 Posted: 8/6/2012 12:52:38 PM   |
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eyemtlaw |
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#30 Posted: 8/6/2012 2:18:42 PM |
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Tone10 |
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#31 Posted: 8/6/2012 2:20:15 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by si1ly:
Locked in:
7:05 EST - Arizona Diamondbacks (-115)
Wade Miley has the 8th best WAR, 6th best SIERA and the best tERA over the last 30 days among 112 qualified starters. He has a K% of 24.0% and an amazingly low walk rate of only 2.9%. That puts him among the likes of guys like King Felix, Clayton Kershaw, David Price. The Diamondbacks rank #2 in the MLB against lefties and Bedard isn't a very good one at that. Advantage in starting pitching, total offense, bullpen and even slightly in fielding. The only thing the Pirates have in this game is home field advantage and I don't think that's worth much next to what Arizona is bringing to the table. This line shouldn't have opened any lower than -130. At the risk of falling for something too good to be true, I'm taking Arizona at this ridiculously cheap price relative to my numbers. I've got the Diamondbacks at -151 with a 60.1% chance to win.
Si1ly... I love your stuff, but I'm going to disagree with you here.
I just don't see value in the D-Backs tonight. Not when you have to lay juice against the best home team in baseball. In addition, I don't think you can make Miley -130 @ Bedard when Miley just closed +115 @ Capuano. There just isn't that much of a difference between Bedard's and Capuano's power-rating.
I actually made this one a -105/-105 game. That's about where it opened so I didn't touch it, but at the current number I would consider a bet on Pittsburgh. I just don't see laying juice with a sub .500 road team against the best home team in baseball as solid value, especially against a pitcher who has the swing-and-miss stuff of Bedard (18 K's in his last two starts) and who's fully capable of pitching a gem.
As always though, BOL... always like reading your threads. |
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Kalebella |
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#32 Posted: 8/6/2012 3:35:55 PM Si1ly tell me what you think about these. This is what i was thinking for today. Please give me your insight!! Boston +136 NY Yanks +165 Arizona -115 Then parlay Arizona with ATL. |
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si1ly |
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#33 Posted: 8/6/2012 3:50:49 PM |
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Tone10 |
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#34 Posted: 8/6/2012 4:01:34 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by si1ly:
Tone, fair enough, and I cant argue with what you see. I think what makes my handicapping a little different is I don't believe Pittsburgh deserves to be the best home team in baseball. I don't think Bedard's 18 K's in his last two starts is an indication that he's pitching well (which by the way were both against Chicago, the second worst hitting team against lefties in the majors). In the 4 games prior to that - where he saw similar competition to what he'll face tonight - he had 14 K's and 11 BB's and averaged 7 hits and 1 home run per game. That's the type of pitcher I expect to see tonight.. he's not capable of pitching a gem. To me, the data indicates the Pirates have been over-performing. Their home record doesn't me nearly as much as what the SABRmetrics say about their true colors. I trust in my numbers. Good luck on your plays tonight, thanks for the input.
Fair enough... and sound reasoning. BOL tonight. |
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capskip |
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#35 Posted: 8/6/2012 4:08:46 PM  |
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clem1 |
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#36 Posted: 8/6/2012 5:54:29 PM |
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si1ly |
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#37 Posted: 8/6/2012 5:59:00 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by clem1:
silly if time permits - i feel yanks and twins have value - thoghts much appreciated - thnx
Yankees have value definitely, but a line this juicy for them is so rare that it seems too good to be true. You won't find the Yankees +150 often.. I'm staying away for that reason.
I don't like the Twins because they've never seen McAllister and I think highly of him as a young pitcher. He should be able to work through the righty heavy Twins line-up with ease the first few times through and he'll only have to worry about Mauer, Reveere and Morneau. I think the under is the better play in this game. |
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si1ly |
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#38 Posted: 8/6/2012 5:59:38 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by Pasteur: I still like St. Louis tonight. Cain is a fly ball pitcher and St. Louis is the kind of lineup that can hurt him. Watching Holliday bat last night...the dude is dialed in. Thanks for the sheets silly!
I like St. Louis too. |
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si1ly |
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#39 Posted: 8/6/2012 6:01:28 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by eyemtlaw:
What do you think of a parlay with Wash and CWS ML? I see that it is a +122
Mendoza is a little better than people give him credit for. I think 7 of his 9 starts were quality. I do like Washington however. I think +122 is pretty much fair value for that parlay. You don't really have an edge over the books at that number. |
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si1ly |
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#40 Posted: 8/6/2012 6:02:58 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by Kalebella: Si1ly tell me what you think about these. This is what i was thinking for today. Please give me your insight!! Boston +136 NY Yanks +165 Arizona -115 Then parlay Arizona with ATL.
Boston has good value against Darvish, he's had horrible control problems. Like Arizona obviously. Also like Atlanta. Staying away from the Yankee line, seems too generous to get them at +165. |
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DanTos8715 |
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#41 Posted: 8/6/2012 9:16:19 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by si1ly:
Tone, fair enough, and I cant argue with what you see. I think what makes my handicapping a little different is I don't believe Pittsburgh deserves to be the best home team in baseball. I don't think Bedard's 18 K's in his last two starts is an indication that he's pitching well (which by the way were both against Chicago, the second worst hitting team against lefties in the majors). In the 4 games prior to that - where he saw similar competition to what he'll face tonight - he had 14 K's and 11 BB's and averaged 7 hits and 1 home run per game. That's the type of pitcher I expect to see tonight.. he's not capable of pitching a gem. To me, the data indicates the Pirates have been over-performing. Their home record doesn't me nearly as much as what the SABRmetrics say about their true colors. I trust in my numbers. Good luck on your plays tonight, thanks for the input.
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