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Author: [NBA Betting] Topic: Spurs to win the west +488? no way...
MoneyShot send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Pinnacle Sports |
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#1
Posted: 2/24/2012 1:52:55 PM

Spurs are playing great ball right now but lets not forget about last year, they had the best record in the west, they had the number 1 seed and lost in the first round to Memphis... I see the same thing happening this year, they might not lose in first round but i would be very surprised to see them win the west. 

At +488, i just dont see any value in that at all... Ive done very well betting futures in the past when it comes to nba, ive done well betting the playoffs and betting futures during the season..  I could be wrong here, but i just dont see this spurs team which is basically the same core as last year getting over the hump and getting to the nba finals.  I think spurs should be more like +1000 to win the west.  hats off to the spurs for doing this well again in the reg season back to back years, but whenthe playoffs come, those old legs will show. 

I actually like the spurs, ive liked them for many many years now even when it was just robinson because they are a hard working team, well coached, they usually dont have any real flashy superstars. Duncan is a great hall of famer, and deserves even more props than he has gotten...  So I will gladly come back into this thread if the spurs somehow win the west but i just dont see any value in betting +488, or +600 or whatever it is at your book. (+488 at pinnacle) 

 

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#2
Posted: 2/24/2012 2:13:18 PM
Too late to bet them for any value.
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#3
Posted: 2/24/2012 2:29:10 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by PapaShango:

Too late to bet them for any value.

true..

i got memphis to win the west at +2500 last week then a couple days later i got them again at +3300. Now its back to 2500.  As i explained many times, i just think Memphis is under the radar right now and if happy and Randolph can co-exist i think they have a shot at winning the west. They did take OKC to 7 games last year in the 2nd round.  I was very impressed with them and that was w/o happy.  They have size, they have some athleticism, they play tough D..
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#4
Posted: 2/24/2012 2:38:19 PM
Good points with Memphis, might be worth a stab. They were very strong in playoffs and could easily repeat those performances. Gritty team
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#5
Posted: 2/24/2012 2:40:20 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by MoneyShot:


true..

i got memphis to win the west at +2500 last week then a couple days later i got them again at +3300. Now its back to 2500.  As i explained many times, i just think Memphis is under the radar right now and if happy and Randolph can co-exist i think they have a shot at winning the west. They did take OKC to 7 games last year in the 2nd round.  I was very impressed with them and that was w/o happy.  They have size, they have some athleticism, they play tough D..


I absolutely agree with you here. Memphis has a LEGIT shot of winning the west. At +2300 I think it's definately worth a shot!
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#6
Posted: 2/24/2012 2:55:56 PM
I also think Denver holds some value.

This is one team that come playoff time will have the DEEPEST bench in the NBA playing playoff minutes. George Karl is a good coach and they have the personnel offensively and defensively to compete with the best. 

They've still rallied off some solid wins even though they are missing a ton of guys due to injuries.

I think the value is hidden in those injuries.

Both Denver and Memphis have ~+2000 odds.

Might be worth a stab
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#7
Posted: 2/24/2012 4:21:26 PM
There is no value in any teams. Okc will win the west and the heat will win the east. Just dump all ur cash on that being the championship match up and take okc to the house cuz i hope lebron never wins a championship that paycut takin team stacking ball sucker
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#8
Posted: 2/24/2012 4:27:53 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by DaBestEver24:

There is no value in any teams. Okc will win the west and the heat will win the east. Just dump all ur cash on that being the championship match up and take okc to the house cuz i hope lebron never wins a championship that paycut takin team stacking ball sucker

OKC can be beaten. Did you see the manner in which LAC dismantled them earlier this year? They were never closer than 12 the entire 2nd half. Once Chris Paul gets that screen set and he's working on Iblocka or Perk, it's over.

They also tend to struggle with teams that are deep and can match their athleticism. Yeah it might have been a fluke, but Sacto played them TOUGH at home and came out with a victory. They also lost to Houston.

Sure, it's gonna be tough to beat them and they are clearly the favorite, but to say they're a LOCK, I don't think so.

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#9
Posted: 2/24/2012 4:32:08 PM
We'll c. Okc is on a mission this year and will win the west. Home court is huge for them. They kill teams at home. Clippers houston and whoever else u wanna throw out there wont beat them in the playoffs
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#10
Posted: 2/26/2012 4:51:37 PM

Well, I see what you are saying and I do agree that there probably is no VALUE for the spurs to win the west at that number but I am just talking about VALUE here and this does not mean I would not make this bet nor does it mean that I dont think the spurs can win the west.

Obviously you know I am saying this because u read my thread and I have the spurs winning it ALL this year.

Here are my reason, mostly the same as yours but I will go more in-depth about the old/fatigue factor you talked about.

The simple reasons are, they have a smart coach, they have done it with this core before, they also have done it before in a shortened season(the only team to win it all in a shortened season), and they are probably the most balanced team out there.

Before I move on I want to mention something about the coach and what he did the other night against portland. I believe that move to bench both duncan and parker SHOWED ME that the coach does not care about the regular season and all he wants to do is win the TITLE in this shortened season and he is playing it very SMART. People need to realize NOTHING MATTERS PRE-ALLSTAR BREAK. you can be 10 games over 500 n not make the playoffs and you can be 10 games under 500 n still make the playoffs depending on how u play POST-ALLSTAR, this is a huge reason why I dont believe the knicks will make it to the playoffs either but that is for another discussion.

So with that out of the way, lets talk about the tired legs you talked about and last seasons 1st round debocle, which u r saying was due to those tired legs. I agree to some extent but u have to realize that was last year with the NORMAL season schedule were they played 7 preseason games and 82 regular season games. So that is 89 games before they start the playoffs.

This is going to get a little mathy here so bare with me.

This season they are playing 66 regular season games with 2 preseason games making it 68 games before the playoffs start.

Now let's say the team that will win the championship (the spurs) played the full 7 games in every series. 7 X 4series is 28 games. 68+28 games is 96.

But realistically speaking it probably wont go to all 7 game series but they probably wont sweep all the series either. So, if the minimum games they will play in the playoffs is 16 (4 sweeps in 4 series is 16 games) and the max is 28 the average is 22 (28+16=44, 44/2=22). This 22 number makes the champion win most the series in either 5 or 6. to be exact they win each series in 5.5 games.

So at this point u might be thinking why is this dumbass brining up these numbers for?

well the answer is simple. If we take the average number of games, 22, the champion(the spurs) will play in the playoffs and add the preseason and the regular season games, it will be 90 games (2+66+22). That is only 1 game more than what ANY team will play in a regular season plus preseason in a NORMAL season.

And now if we go by last years results, the spurs did just fine at the end of regular season last year. This is why I believe the argument about the tired legs is really irrelavent to me. Especially when those games in the playoffs will be on all on at least a days rest, 2 days rest if its a traveling day, a bunch of days if they sweep and they have to wait for their next opponent. and obviously no back to back days.  

Now just because I showed u the tired legs are irrelavent in MY opinion, this does not mean this is the SOLE reason I think they will win the west and eventually the title.

I just think these numbers will tell u the spurs can keep up the pace especially if popovich is benching players already.

The key for the spurs to win the west is obviously going to be if there core can be healthy to the end. That is it. I believe if they are healthy, they got the BEST chance of winning it all.

This is just my 2 cents and I'm probably WRONG anyways lol

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#11
Posted: 2/27/2012 4:54:00 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by twodigitz:

Well, I see what you are saying and I do agree that there probably is no VALUE for the spurs to win the west at that number but I am just talking about VALUE here and this does not mean I would not make this bet nor does it mean that I dont think the spurs can win the west.

Obviously you know I am saying this because u read my thread and I have the spurs winning it ALL this year.

Here are my reason, mostly the same as yours but I will go more in-depth about the old/fatigue factor you talked about.

The simple reasons are, they have a smart coach, they have done it with this core before, they also have done it before in a shortened season(the only team to win it all in a shortened season), and they are probably the most balanced team out there.

Before I move on I want to mention something about the coach and what he did the other night against portland. I believe that move to bench both duncan and parker SHOWED ME that the coach does not care about the regular season and all he wants to do is win the TITLE in this shortened season and he is playing it very SMART. People need to realize NOTHING MATTERS PRE-ALLSTAR BREAK. you can be 10 games over 500 n not make the playoffs and you can be 10 games under 500 n still make the playoffs depending on how u play POST-ALLSTAR, this is a huge reason why I dont believe the knicks will make it to the playoffs either but that is for another discussion.

So with that out of the way, lets talk about the tired legs you talked about and last seasons 1st round debocle, which u r saying was due to those tired legs. I agree to some extent but u have to realize that was last year with the NORMAL season schedule were they played 7 preseason games and 82 regular season games. So that is 89 games before they start the playoffs.

This is going to get a little mathy here so bare with me.

This season they are playing 66 regular season games with 2 preseason games making it 68 games before the playoffs start.

Now let's say the team that will win the championship (the spurs) played the full 7 games in every series. 7 X 4series is 28 games. 68+28 games is 96.

But realistically speaking it probably wont go to all 7 game series but they probably wont sweep all the series either. So, if the minimum games they will play in the playoffs is 16 (4 sweeps in 4 series is 16 games) and the max is 28 the average is 22 (28+16=44, 44/2=22). This 22 number makes the champion win most the series in either 5 or 6. to be exact they win each series in 5.5 games.

So at this point u might be thinking why is this dumbass brining up these numbers for?

well the answer is simple. If we take the average number of games, 22, the champion(the spurs) will play in the playoffs and add the preseason and the regular season games, it will be 90 games (2+66+22). That is only 1 game more than what ANY team will play in a regular season plus preseason in a NORMAL season.

And now if we go by last years results, the spurs did just fine at the end of regular season last year. This is why I believe the argument about the tired legs is really irrelavent to me. Especially when those games in the playoffs will be on all on at least a days rest, 2 days rest if its a traveling day, a bunch of days if they sweep and they have to wait for their next opponent. and obviously no back to back days.  

Now just because I showed u the tired legs are irrelavent in MY opinion, this does not mean this is the SOLE reason I think they will win the west and eventually the title.

I just think these numbers will tell u the spurs can keep up the pace especially if popovich is benching players already.

The key for the spurs to win the west is obviously going to be if there core can be healthy to the end. That is it. I believe if they are healthy, they got the BEST chance of winning it all.

This is just my 2 cents and I'm probably WRONG anyways lol



its monday, can i get the Coles notes version or the highlights instead? lol.  Just teasing u...


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#12
Posted: 2/27/2012 8:41:38 PM

lol, dont u see why I didnt want to throw all that in my thread...n like i said in my thread, this is only a QUARTER of the reason why I think the spurs will win.

 

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#13
Posted: 2/27/2012 8:46:53 PM
early bets on S.A.to win the West.

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#14
Posted: 2/27/2012 11:34:54 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by DaBestEver24:

There is no value in any teams. Okc will win the west and the heat will win the east. Just dump all ur cash on that being the championship match up and take okc to the house cuz i hope lebron never wins a championship that paycut takin team stacking ball sucker
As of today. All true. OKC and Miami.  As of today. OKC in 7
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#15
Posted: 2/28/2012 3:45:30 AM
as of today means nothing, its about which teams peaks when the playoffs roll around.
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#16
Posted: 3/2/2012 4:19:32 AM
As of today im still kinda right lol
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#17
Posted: 3/29/2012 3:53:12 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by DaBestEver24:

As of today im still kinda right lol


yeah but OKCs odds havent changed either... If u could of got OKC at the beginning of the season then that would of been great.
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#18
Posted: 3/29/2012 6:55:07 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by DaBestEver24:

We'll c. Okc is on a mission this year and will win the west. Home court is huge for them. They kill teams at home. Clippers houston and whoever else u wanna throw out there wont beat them in the playoffs

Ya I think OKC gets out of the West but loses in the finals, unless if OKC plays Houston in the 1st round because the Rockets would absolutely give em a run for their money and wear em down for the future rounds

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