Posted: 2/26/2012 4:51:37 PM
Well, I see what you are saying and I do agree that there probably is no VALUE for the spurs to win the west at that number but I am just talking about VALUE here and this does not mean I would not make this bet nor does it mean that I dont think the spurs can win the west.
Obviously you know I am saying this because u read my thread and I have the spurs winning it ALL this year.
Here are my reason, mostly the same as yours but I will go more in-depth about the old/fatigue factor you talked about.
The simple reasons are, they have a smart coach, they have done it with this core before, they also have done it before in a shortened season(the only team to win it all in a shortened season), and they are probably the most balanced team out there.
Before I move on I want to mention something about the coach and what he did the other night against portland. I believe that move to bench both duncan and parker SHOWED ME that the coach does not care about the regular season and all he wants to do is win the TITLE in this shortened season and he is playing it very SMART. People need to realize NOTHING MATTERS PRE-ALLSTAR BREAK. you can be 10 games over 500 n not make the playoffs and you can be 10 games under 500 n still make the playoffs depending on how u play POST-ALLSTAR, this is a huge reason why I dont believe the knicks will make it to the playoffs either but that is for another discussion.
So with that out of the way, lets talk about the tired legs you talked about and last seasons 1st round debocle, which u r saying was due to those tired legs. I agree to some extent but u have to realize that was last year with the NORMAL season schedule were they played 7 preseason games and 82 regular season games. So that is 89 games before they start the playoffs.
This is going to get a little mathy here so bare with me.
This season they are playing 66 regular season games with 2 preseason games making it 68 games before the playoffs start.
Now let's say the team that will win the championship (the spurs) played the full 7 games in every series. 7 X 4series is 28 games. 68+28 games is 96.
But realistically speaking it probably wont go to all 7 game series but they probably wont sweep all the series either. So, if the minimum games they will play in the playoffs is 16 (4 sweeps in 4 series is 16 games) and the max is 28 the average is 22 (28+16=44, 44/2=22). This 22 number makes the champion win most the series in either 5 or 6. to be exact they win each series in 5.5 games.
So at this point u might be thinking why is this dumbass brining up these numbers for?
well the answer is simple. If we take the average number of games, 22, the champion(the spurs) will play in the playoffs and add the preseason and the regular season games, it will be 90 games (2+66+22). That is only 1 game more than what ANY team will play in a regular season plus preseason in a NORMAL season.
And now if we go by last years results, the spurs did just fine at the end of regular season last year. This is why I believe the argument about the tired legs is really irrelavent to me. Especially when those games in the playoffs will be on all on at least a days rest, 2 days rest if its a traveling day, a bunch of days if they sweep and they have to wait for their next opponent. and obviously no back to back days.
Now just because I showed u the tired legs are irrelavent in MY opinion, this does not mean this is the SOLE reason I think they will win the west and eventually the title.
I just think these numbers will tell u the spurs can keep up the pace especially if popovich is benching players already.
The key for the spurs to win the west is obviously going to be if there core can be healthy to the end. That is it. I believe if they are healthy, they got the BEST chance of winning it all.
This is just my 2 cents and I'm probably WRONG anyways lol