Posted: 5/22/2012 6:21:43 PM
Line: Miami -7 O/U 181
We head back to Miami for Game 5 tonight deadlocked at 2 games a piece in this best of 7 series. Both teams accomplished what they needed to do on the road so far as each has taken a game in a hostile environment.
You can look at this game a hundred different ways and come up with a hundred different outcomes. But, to me this game boils down to two things. One, the performance of D Wade, and two, the second half. If D Wade shows up, and if Miami wins the second half then they win and cover. One of those things doesn't happen and not only will they not cover, but they will lose outright. I only mention D Wade showing up because regardless of what he does in the closing minutes of the game, LeBron will show up.
Game 1 Miami takes the 2H by 15 points and wins by 9. D Wade and LeBron combine for 65% (61/95) of Miami scoring. Game 2 Miami loses 2H by 8 and loses by 3. While D Wade and LeBron combined for 70% (52/75) of Miami scoring they also combined for 100% of their non-scoring as LeBron bricks two free throws with 54 seconds left and D Wade misses a lay-up with 16 seconds left which would have given Miami the lead. Game 3 Miami loses the 2H by 19 and lose by 19! D Wade goes 2-13 from the field and puts up a whopping 5 points! D Wade and LeBron account for 36% (27/75) of Miami's points and D Wade decides it's a good time to punk the coach as well! Just when everyone is counting them out they come out in Game 4 and drop the 1H by 8 and D Wade looks as if he is still in his funk. But, a hard foul near the end of the half and a couple of free throws set him off and he and LeBron go on to account for 70% (70/101) of Miami's points as they also dominate the 2H by 16 and end the game winning by 8.
This game is all about D Wade. Again, to me he is the single most important piece on the floor for Miami. To me it is a given that LeBron will get his. D Wade gets his and Miami wins. Game 3 in my opinion was an aberation. D Wade was in another dimension and it was not a good one! Tonight, with both he and LeBron attacking the rim I think that we will see Hibbert again in foul trouble and missing key time on the court.
This is now a best of three series and I will take Miami in a best of three over Indiana any day of the week. This happens to be Tuesday and we happen to be in Miami tonight so......
But, what the hell do I know?