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Divisional Road Underdogs in MLB by Line Range (2000-2010)

HOME LINE: W-L (PCT), UNITS
-300 or higher: 24-66 (26.7%), +5.7 Units
-250 to -299: 58-148 (28.2%), -9.6 Units
-220 to -249: 143-252 (36.2%), +47.8 Units
-190 to -219: 236-410 (36.5%), +25.7 Units
-170 to -189: 305-501 (37.8%), +4.4 Units
-150 to -169: 529-801 (39.8%), -25.7 Units
-130 to -149: 786-973 (44.7%), +29.2 Units
-116 to -129: 435-477 (47.7%), +12.5 Units
-106 to -115: 428-467 (47.8%), -28.7 Units
TOTAL: 2944-4095 (41.8%), +61.3 Units

As you can see, there are some distinct breaks in success rates by divisional road dogs when you consider the line range in which they are playing too. There is a so-called “sweet spot” when the home team is favored in the -190 to -249 range. In these games since 2000, the road divisional dog has only won about 36.4% of its games, but has produced 73.5 units of profit. That equates to a R.O.I. of 7.1%. Now that type of return is something that mutual fund managers would kill for nowadays. If only us bettors had dropped our 401K money into this option rather than on Wall Street!

Above is from poster guil0000 posted 8/1/2012