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Author: [College Football] Topic: Week 7 Leans (YTD: 25-18 Best Bet: 6-0)
ryan8186 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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#1
Posted: 10/9/2012 9:39:56 AM
Season: 25-18
Last Week 4-2
Best Bets: 6-0

Had a great weekend while hitting another "Best Bet" and my Game of the Year. I also played South Carolina, but didn't post it, so I won't add that to my record.  Hopefully we can keep it going this week.  The lines are starting to get tight and it will definitely be tougher from here on out to cap.

Louisville -3
- I like Louisville coming off the bye week here.  Pitt only mustered 27 rushing yards against Syracuse.  Lville has a great secondary and will shut down the Pitt passing attack.  And then there is the charlie strong factor....he is a way better coach than Pitt's and will have his guys prepared coming off a bye week.

Florida -8
- Don't over think it.  Bama will show you why that Mizzou is not as big as some think.  I realize most will say this is a classic sandwich game, but I think Muschamp has these guys playing with a different mentality.  And you can bet if they come out flat in the 1H, that Muschamp will adjust in the 2H like he has all year long.  To much talent on the field for Florida.

Auburn +4.5
- They burnt me last week, but I think Chizik has his team come out with a little more fight this week.  Ole Miss is coming off a heartbreaking loss to A&M.  A game in which A&M had 6 turnovers and still lost.  I think that type of loss can send this Ole Miss team in a downward spiral for the rest of the season.  With that being said, Auburn has got to take care of the football.  If they don't turn it over, they win!

Bama -21.5
- Bama off a bye week....enough said.  Roll Tide.

Notre Dame -8.5
- I must say I am really impressed with ND's defense this year, especially that animal they have on the defensive line! He is an absolute monster.  Stanford has not impressed me at all this year and this will be their first true test against a really good defense.  I will take the Irish in this one.

Miss State -3
- I'm going to this game and it should be a lot of fun.  One of the best passing attacks in the SEC vs. one of the best secondaries in the SEC.  Starkville will be rocking with the late kickoff and I know MSU was already looking ahead last weekend to this game.  The players are all very pumped and you definitely feel good knowing you will get their best effort in this game.  Bray has yet to win a big time game in his career at Tenn.  In his last 2 seasons, he has lost every road SEC game he has played and thrown 7 picks in those contests, while only completing 50% of his passes.  He beats up on the lesser opponents but really struggles against quality competition.  I really baffles me as to how people think he is a first rounder.  In any event, throwing the ball 45 times on this defense (which ranks 11th nationally) is a recipe for disaster.

South Carolina +3
- This is just too easy.  USC is better at every single position on the field, especially on the line of scrimmage where it matters most.  Mettenberger is a fraud.

WVU -4.5
- This line seems really shady to me.  I understand this is a trap game with Kstate up next, but TTech look horrible against a real opponent last weekend.

Texas AM -7.5
- If this game was played at the beginning of the season I would have taken LaTech.  After watching Manziel play, there is no way that is going to happen.  He looks like Cam Newton out there...very impressive.  With that being said LaTech is giving up 531 yards on defense and they have not really played anyone yet.  AM has the 15th scoring defense in the nation and I think that will be the difference.

Feel free to tell me where I'm wrong or right.  I welcome feedback.  


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#2
Posted: 10/9/2012 9:45:55 AM
Ryan, With you on UF. Best of Luck this week.
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#3
Posted: 10/9/2012 10:54:41 AM
your picks looks pretty solid to me..   i love S. Car and will probably be on the under.

only thing i'm not sure about is you are going against some pretty shady spreads IMO (L Ville, FLA, WV), the public will be pounding all three of those, i usually try not to make a living doing that but you are definitely on the better team.

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#4
Posted: 10/9/2012 12:08:32 PM
Thanks Wiseguy  

@abizzo I disagree that UL and UF are shady defenses (or maybe I'm reading that wrong).  Both are very solid defensively and I think are definitely the better team; however, there is always the away factor.  I like UL better than UF.  As for WVU, their defense is awful, but their offense is great.  Have to accept it for what it is.

Good Luck to you
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#5
Posted: 10/10/2012 9:15:48 AM
Looks like I will NOT be playing Auburn this week.  After the reports I heard yesterday that the players have quit on Chizik/coaches, there is no way I can back them.  I would consider taking the rebels, but you just never know what the Auburn players will come out like.  It's a no play for me.
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#6
Posted: 10/10/2012 9:34:59 AM

Maybe Louisville 1st half... they haven't closed games out and let their opponent back in it in the 2nd half.

I like the Bama play and WV... if they can go into texas and cover, let alone win then they'll have no problem this week.

I've bet against the irish every week... this may be the week I take the golden domers, they've proved to be legit.

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#7
Posted: 10/10/2012 9:48:19 AM
@Hawk -- you are right Lville is a much better first half team; however, all of those games you talked about were larger lines.  I obviously think they will win, so I'm not as worried about the backdoor at -3.

Totally agree on WVU.  ND is legit.  There DLine is no joke!
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#8
Posted: 10/10/2012 10:36:59 AM
Regarding South Carolina : The thing that I understand about the line is South Carolina in their two road games hasnt played that well. They trailed 17-7 at half at Kentucky and didnt play well at Vanderbilt. Thats the reason LSU is favored I believe
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#9
Posted: 10/10/2012 1:09:22 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by cbowles1111:

Regarding South Carolina : The thing that I understand about the line is South Carolina in their two road games hasnt played that well. They trailed 17-7 at half at Kentucky and didnt play well at Vanderbilt. Thats the reason LSU is favored I believe

To your point though, they still won both games.  Clearly they took UK for granted and scored 31 unanswered in the 2nd half.  Vandy was the first game of the year, so they should get a pass on that one.  USC is just a better team than LSU, especially with all the injuries they have on the OLine.
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#10
Posted: 10/10/2012 1:42:06 PM
It kinda feels like the SEC east is starting to come back into form this year.. I like all of your picks except I still like Ole Miss to play well against Auburn and not to be a homer but I still like my Vols

I saw your post about the players quitting on Auburn coaches and that is no good for those tigers

You were completely right with your assessment on Bray a few weeks ago.. not only did he blow the UF game but also the UGA game as well.. it is really disappointing to see .. however the run game looks about as good as it has looked in several years for the vols and since UT has played a much more competitive schedule so far I will lean with the vols.. I think Bray finally gets over the hump this week and after a bye week to stew over the UGA loss the vols will come to play in Starkvegas and get a W.. 

also Im never big on playing true freshman and winning but late in the UGA game Tenn put in freshman safety McNeil and that kid is a beast.. he goes about 6'1 210 and he put a couple of hits on Gurley that IMO changed the way he ran the ball the rest of the game, he got a full week of practice with the 1's and another this week so I expect him to be ready, he was the vols top freshman recruit this past year

South Carolina looks flat awesome and Ive been talking up ND before the season even began.. Kelly and Spurrier are two of the best in game coaches IMO
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#11
Posted: 10/10/2012 1:50:04 PM
@cesimms....I've been waiting for you to chime in.  Hope you are doing well.  I'll be honest this is a HUGE game for both teams for different reasons. 

State is getting it's best lineman back this week (tobia smith), he played a little bit last week to get him back in the swing of things, but he has practiced all week, so that is a big plus.  I will be interested to see how Bray does against our secondary.  I think it is going to be the key to the game.  We have two NFL ready corners and you guys have two NFL ready WR's, should be interesting to watch.  I saw McNeil play and he is a beast; however, he is a freshman and we all know they will make mistakes.  One thing I'm expecting this week from State is to throw more with our back up QB Dak Prescott, he comes in in short yardage and runs the "Tebow" package, but has yet to throw the ball, so I'm expecting a new wrinkle in a big moment from him.

All in all I think what does it for me is that Dooley has been out this week with surgery and will be in the press box (some UT fans may say this is a blessing).  I would interested to get your take on that.

As for USC and ND, they both look solid.  I just can't back Auburn after what I read yesterday and I still don't have enough confidence in Ole Miss, especially considering Bo Wallace's sister was in a really bad car wreck this week and he has been limited in practice.

GL to you.
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#12
Posted: 10/10/2012 2:03:43 PM
I loved the UF opening line until I saw where Vandy has been 4-1 ATS L5 in the swamp. I'm probably just going to take Florida 2H like you mentioned. Has been money in every SEC game so far.
Posted using a mobile device.
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#13
Posted: 10/10/2012 2:13:50 PM
Playing Auburn takes ....
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#14
Posted: 10/10/2012 2:31:27 PM
I work with a die hard Ole Miss fan and he actually likes the backup qb Brunetti better than Wallace so we'll see how that pans out.. Dooley being in the box could be tricky because it could be an advantage with him being able to see the game from above and making adjustments.. also his energy on the sidelines could be missed.. who knows

the thing that jumps out to me about Miss St is that they have not had to finish games in the 4th quarter this year and I think that is a considerable advantage for UT.. also I dont see the explosiveness out of Msst that I see from UT and the fact that the vols have had an off week really makes me think they cover +3

and to go back to south carolina, as a lifelong vols fan that game against lsu comes down to spurrier making a career out of owning john chavis when he was at tenn.. and since both teams sc and lsu are very talented I give the edge to sc with the coaching advantage

as much as i dislike spurrier he is quite posssibly the greatest in game college coach ever 

also since this is msst qb russells first true sec test as a starter he may make some bonehead plays that are not expected.. should be a great game  I hope you do well this week


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#15
Posted: 10/10/2012 3:09:45 PM
Brunetti gets the benefit of coming in when Ole Miss is way down, so he is typically playing against the back ups.  He is not a very good passer.

On the 4Q comment, actually they closed the game out against Auburn after they ran the opening kickoff back in 2nd half to go up 10-7.  The final was 28-10.  The other games were against lesser competition and I really don't think they we "all-in" if you know what I mean (i.e. UT vs Akron).  

As for Russell, he started a couple of games last year against SEC teams and has already won on the road in the SEC this year, something Bray has not done.

Should be a great game and great atmosphere.  I'm making the drive down from Lexington to attend it.
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#16
Posted: 10/10/2012 4:14:32 PM
I'll give you a play this week - Utah State 1st quarter.  They haven't given up a point all season in the 1st quarter.

Tough match up though... SJST is 5-0 ATS, UTST is 5-0-1 ATS this year.


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#17
Posted: 10/10/2012 6:22:45 PM
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#18
Posted: 10/10/2012 10:10:48 PM
Mississippi State probably won't lose a game until 10-27 when @ Bama, but they definitely have the potential to give Bama all that they can handle in a losing effort.
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#19
Posted: 10/11/2012 2:02:10 AM
i got Vandy +7.5, and Pitt +3. 
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#20
Posted: 10/12/2012 11:05:55 AM
GL, mate.
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#21
Posted: 10/13/2012 4:45:49 PM
utah st gave up their 1st points of the season in the first quarter... they were +.5, easy cover up 14-3 at the end of the 1st!
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