Posted: 12/18/2012 11:53:39 PM
I could just not overthink it and just start everyone with higher projections, but I'm not sure if that is the right move.
Peyton Manning vs. Cleveland, Big Ben @ Cincy
Last week I really questioned Manning at Baltimore. I was right, as he only turned in 12 points in a blowout win. Unfortunately, I started Freeman instead who got me 6 points.
This week I really believe Cleveland can shut down Manning. They've been playing well, and Cleveland has a legitimate defense. The Pitt/Cincy game could be low scoring in a big division game, but Big Ben throws it so damn much, it pretty much seems like he's good for 20 every week, which I don't think Manning will do.
Hakeem Nicks @ Baltimore, Danny Amendola @ Tampa Bay
So I've been starting Nicks, but he's pretty much had a terrible season. He had the most targets on the team last week, but I truly believe the Giants are a freakin mess right now. Nicks mostly gets 10 yard passes, 5-6 catches for about 60-70 yards. He's playing @ Baltimore just like Peyton did last week. I dunno if I trust him giving me another 5 pts this week.
Amendola is finally back from injury. Bradford's favorite target, and TB has the worst pass defense in the league. He's continually producing, and had his best games against defenses with no lockdown corner (Wash, Minn).
Bryce Brown vs. Washington, Steven Jackson @ TB
So this is the toughest one of the bunch. Steven Jackson has been putting up 10-15 a game basically for 2 months straight. Tampa Bay has the worst rush DEF in the league, but have one of the worst pass defenses. I'm afraid STL will choose to throw cuz it's much easier.
Brown has put up 3 consecutive stinkers. What a disappointment after those first 2 weeks. I watched that entire Thursday game, and not only does he fumble way too much, he also has issues running inside. His speed and explosiveness comes only from the edges, which cincy took away. The Redskins secondary is terrible, and playing better, but their D-Line has been their strength the whole season.
Houston DEF vs. Minn, NY Jets DEF vs. San Diego
So last week i started Houston DEF cuz I knew Luck turns the ball over, and doesn't play as well on the road. The large spread was the tipping point to me. It was more of a situational start than anything. They're still banged up at the LB position, and do I really want to start them when AP is on a tear? The fact that he is running so well takes pressure off ponder and allows him not to make mistakes.
The Jets defense played really well last week. The chargers O-Line is a mess. Rivers gets sacked like 5-6 times a game on top of the picks he throws. They also have pretty bad special teams, which could allow a blocked punt or a return TD. I actually like the Jets to win this game, but the concern I have is River's good record in December. Could he really have 2 bad games in a row?
Any advice during Championship week would be appreciated.
I'm in a 12 team non-ppr standard scoring league. Buy-in was 50 bucks and winner gets 500. Would you guys hedge 300-300 if you were me?
I have a good team and like my chances, but this dude beat me 150-97 a month ago with Schaub, Andre Johnson, Brandon Lloyd, Josh Gordon, Spiller, Lynch, Leshoure, Jimmy Graham, Seattle's DEF, and Akers. He only won cuz Schaub and Andre put up 75 between the two of them though.
Week 16 Leans:
Sorry guys, don't have a strong pick like with San Fran ML last week. Will tell you that I lean the Jets, Browns, and Bills based on statistical analysis.