Messages

YTD 12-13 +1.38

CLV (Closing Line Value): +3.79

CLV Profit (Actual Units Won/Saved by Beating Closing Line): +1.66

As always, I am capping the line, not the matchup. My only goal is to beat the closing number by betting early before the market sets itself. If I do that consistently, I believe I will be profitable. Along with my units I will be tracking CLV (total units I have beaten closing line) and CLV Profit (actual units won or saved by betting early instead of waiting for the closing line).

Tough day Monday going 0-2 with the Red Sox and Braves -1 run line. However got both at the open and instead of laying -111 and -117 on those plays I got EV and -108, so saved myself a fifth of a unit.

Larger card on tap for Tuesday. Playing more chalk than usual but just seems like some value for some short favorites on Tuesday. All plays bet at the open and posted in my Monday thread.

Tuesday 4/17

901 Houston Astros +195

908 Milwaukee Brewers -125

912 Colorado Rockies -115

916 San Francisco Giants -1 +108

922 Boston Red Sox -113

929 Cleveland Indians -115

Good luck everybody.

Thanks Nate... shocked at some of these lines I was able to get. Capped the Brewers at -150, Rockies at -150, and Red Sox at -145. I expect these to move somewhat tomorrow. Already have a huge 40 cent edge on the Astros as BetOnline stupidly opened at a way too high +195. It's currently +156 at Pinnacle.

I would hit the Brewers now if you like em Nate... Lord knows I've been wrong before, but I at least see this line getting into the 130's tomorrow. I could just be way off here though.

Thanks, fellas. BetOnline openers went up, went ahead and played these two for tomorrow.

Wednesday 4/18

Tampa Bay Rays +105

Philadelphia Phillies +105