Posted: 11/16/2012 1:20:19 AM
Just some interesting info: Including tonight's game, teams with a higher overall ranking than their opponent in my system are 68-30-1 (69.4%) straight up this year, beginning in week 4 when my system is operable. Included in that number is underdogs who rank higher than their opponent, which are 17-13 (56.7%) straight up so far this season -(note that I included Denver @ SD as a dog - although the game ended a PK, it began as SD favored so I went that direction). Those numbers include games with quarterback changes that should be omitted (Quinn for KC who was ranked higher than TB week 6 is one I noticed) and do not include HFA in any way. I've read that the best predictive model, which includes HFA, can be right only 75-80% of the time - so I'm happy about my rankings being at 69.4% while not even including HFA (which should account for around 7%) or injuries. Trying to add HFA in the simplest way possible, I found the record of home teams ranked higher than their opponent in my system to be 37-12 (75.5%). Just thought these numbers were interesting and helped assure my confidence in the system - wanted to share them. All of these wins/losses were measured against closing lines.
The only dogs ranked higher than their opponents this week are Cleveland, Carolina, and Pittsburgh (although the QB situation in Pitt should be noted).