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Author: [WNBA] Topic: Why Erika de Souza Machado didn't play in games 2 and 3
MuggsyBogues
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#1
Posted: 9/29/2011 12:14:36 AM
The Atlanta Dream happens to employ two of Team Brazil's top 5-6 players. Including Erika, who is by far their best player (compare to Pau Gasol for Team Spain or Lauren Jackson for Team Australia).

No matter how big Erika's ambition to win a WNBA championship is, a chance for an Olympic gold takes precedence. To get to London, Brazil needs to win this FIBA Americas tournament. Win. Get number one spot. Otherwise (if they place 2-4) they'd be forced to play extra games. In June-July 2012, which just happens to be when the WNBA regular season begins.

The tradeoff here is pretty basic. 

A) Either Erika goes to Colombia and her team becomes a heavy (60-80%) favorite to get #1 spot

B) Or Erika stays, and possibly gets left out of the Olympic team in 2012 (at least that's what Brazil's Hoops Federation threatened)

option A is great for Brazil, good for Erika, and not so good for Atlanta (the latter is questionable given what actually happened; but of course Indiana could have swept this series, and then there'd be a lot of pissed off fans and gamblers - including myself)

option B is bad for Brazil, not so good for Erika, and good for Atlanta (again, the latter is questionable... Erika makes team Brazil impossible to defend, but the Dream can be impossible to defend without her)

http://london2012.fiba.com/pages/eng/fe/12/olym/who_is_in/p/women.html

As of today, Erika's decision 'to go' looks brilliant. She made her choice. She let Iziane decide for herself (and make starting five, lighting up Indiana in the process). It looks like both Team Brazil and the Atlanta Dream are on their way to the top. 

Well played!
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#2
Posted: 9/29/2011 12:23:14 AM
I forgot to mention that without Erika, Brazil still is the best team in the tournament. But they would be only 40-50% favorites to win the top spot. With her, they are unbeatable:

http://london2012.fiba.com/pages/eng/fe/12/olym/p/lid//sid/5213/group-standing.html

Point difference in four group games: +150.
Argentina, Cuba and Canada (the three teams most likely to place 2-4 and go to the qualifying tournament I'd mentioned earlier) won their group stage games by an average of 50 points.

150 vs 50.

Brazil is way out of reach. Let's hope Erika gets pumped up and brings her A game to Minnesota on Sunday.
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#3
Posted: 9/29/2011 1:51:35 AM
Still so torn on hedging Muggsy..... really don't feel like i should at all but EVERYONE is picking Lynx... almost makes me feel better?
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#4
Posted: 9/29/2011 4:16:25 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by penzfan17:

Still so torn on hedging Muggsy..... really don't feel like i should at all but EVERYONE is picking Lynx... almost makes me feel better?

Not sure what they're smoking. 

Minnesota is 10 points better than they were in 2010. Atlanta today is 7 points better than Atlanta during the first few weeks of 2011 (when, incidentally, Minnesota beat us twice on a back to back).

I'm just trying to say this: There is zero history between these two teams. Why would you pick Minnesota as a -200 or -300 favorite over five games, with no prior history between the two teams? 

And if you do, but you didn't pick Atlanta at plus money over Indiana who they convincingly swept (and ended up 6-1 counting RS and playoffs - or 5-1 if you disregard the final game of the RS)... what are YOU smoking?
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#5
Posted: 9/30/2011 2:02:07 AM
I'm not so sure if de Souza will play in Game 1... man!...
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#6
Posted: 10/1/2011 7:21:26 PM
FROM FIBA.COM:

In Brazil's victory over Cuba, point guard Adrianinha almost 
finished with a triple-double.

She walked off the floor with nine points, 12 assists and 13 rebounds.

Looking ahead to the title tilt with Argentina, Adrianinha said: "Argentina is always a strong opponent and we will use all our weapons against them in the quest for the Olympic spot."

Center Erika de Souza led the winners with 20 points.

"Tomorrow will be a great game against Argentina," she said.

"It will be a very emotional game. 

"We are all very motivated, because only one team leaves with the job done."

Brazil out-rebounded Cuba 47-30.
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#7
Posted: 10/2/2011 1:12:47 AM
de Souza better be in the air flying across the caribbean!!
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#8
Posted: 10/2/2011 11:04:13 AM

The WNBA has an agreement with national teams that allows players to participate in international play. 

 

The Dream will have to make do without de Souza for another game. The final game of the Olympic qualifying tournament is Saturday in Colombia, where de Souza is to take a three-hour bus ride to Bogota and catch a flight to Minneapolis.

Meadors expects de Souza to play in Game 2 on Wednesday.

“She is going to be exhausted but she will be ready to go,” Meadors said. “She is so happy to re-join this team.”

Once de Souza returns, Meadors said she’s not certain she will stay with the small lineup that features guard Iziane Castro Marques. The alignment allowed the Dream to use their quickness and athleticism to disrupt Indiana’s offense and led to lots of fast-break chances.

Also key for the Dream was the offensive re-emergence of McCoughtry, the league’s No. 2 scorer during the regular season.

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#9
Posted: 10/2/2011 11:18:35 AM
Good game Atlanta.
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#10
Posted: 10/5/2011 5:42:44 PM
http://www.wnba.com/playoffs/2011/atlanta_practice_report_2011_10_04.html

Back to the Price-Harding-McCoughtry-De Souza Machado-Lyttle lineup tonight.

Good game Minnesota.
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#11
Posted: 10/6/2011 5:45:26 PM
I gotta stick to my guns and say Atlanta will win game 3.

But they've gotten so owned late in games, everyone's hands shaking except for McCoughtry. The girl probably feels like Lebron James on that Cleveland team going against San Antonio in the finals. Putting up 40 and losing. Sucks!

I have no idea why Atlanta is a four point favorite in this one. The first reaction to the line was: they're trying to discourage wagers on Atlanta in the first half. So that's probably what I'm going to take. 

Hopefully, Erika has a huge friggin game on Friday. If two players score at will, Atlanta actually might survive a fourth quarter against this mean, mean Minnesota team.
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#12
Posted: 10/6/2011 9:53:27 PM
Back on the same boat muggsy
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#13
Posted: 10/7/2011 2:53:47 PM
They must... they MUST run their offense inside-out. More touches for Erika = win for the Dream.

If Taj can't go tonight, I really like our chances.
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#14
Posted: 10/7/2011 3:00:24 PM
not a bad idea to take them for FH,we know at least they have been hanging with them in FH.
But those 4th 1/4s appear to not be a one time thing against Minn.,its happen all year to them with this team.
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#15
Posted: 10/7/2011 3:05:57 PM
Actually wrote that wrong,its happen to them in the playoffs in the 3 games they have loss,once to Ind.,they did beat Minn .in a 4th 1/4 but they were getting blown out,so Minny probally had sec.string in,but wouldnt you expect a better 4th at home?
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#16
Posted: 10/7/2011 3:09:17 PM
Only if they run their offense instead of playing friggin streetball.

The reason San Antonio dealt Minnesota their only loss of these playoffs (and were this close to eliminating them actually) is they ran... their.. offense. They used picks. They executed, and got open threes.

Atlanta, instead, just tries to give the ball to Angel and see if she can shoot 50% all game long. If Harding assumes more of the ball handling, and they move A LOT MORE without the ball, getting it to Erika inside for easy layups and open threes, they will win. 

If they just give it to Angel and pray she gets hot, they get swept.
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#17
Posted: 10/7/2011 4:26:46 PM
Yeh they cant expect 24 every half from her,but they were in or ahead both games until the 4th 1/4,tuff to cap this garbage as it is without having to worry about if they decide to show up for the important 1/4.

think thats why 44 is done with this,unless Atl.wins he might have a pick next game,but he isnt playing this one or he would have a pick by now.
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#18
Posted: 10/7/2011 9:00:47 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by MuggsyBogues:

I gotta stick to my guns and say Atlanta will win game 3.

But they've gotten so owned late in games, everyone's hands shaking except for McCoughtry. The girl probably feels like Lebron James on that Cleveland team going against San Antonio in the finals. Putting up 40 and losing. Sucks!

I have no idea why Atlanta is a four point favorite in this one. The first reaction to the line was: they're trying to discourage wagers on Atlanta in the first half. So that's probably what I'm going to take. 

Hopefully, Erika has a huge friggin game on Friday. If two players score at will, Atlanta actually might survive a fourth quarter against this mean, mean Minnesota team.

11-8-9 for erika-angel-sancho in this first half.

This is far from over but I really like Atlanta's chances. Balanced scoring

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#19
Posted: 10/7/2011 9:20:33 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by MuggsyBogues:


Not sure what they're smoking. 

Minnesota is 10 points better than they were in 2010. Atlanta today is 7 points better than Atlanta during the first few weeks of 2011 (when, incidentally, Minnesota beat us twice on a back to back).

I'm just trying to say this: There is zero history between these two teams. Why would you pick Minnesota as a -200 or -300 favorite over five games, with no prior history between the two teams? 

And if you do, but you didn't pick Atlanta at plus money over Indiana who they convincingly swept (and ended up 6-1 counting RS and playoffs - or 5-1 if you disregard the final game of the RS)... what are YOU smoking?


 some people like money that's why.   
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#20
Posted: 10/7/2011 9:42:58 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by GoBlue77:



 some people like money that's why.   


Guilty as charged....
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#21
Posted: 10/8/2011 12:50:42 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by GoBlue77:



 some people like money that's why.   

Atlanta was competitive in every single playoff game, with or without our best players. Just keep betting the favorite and see how that works out for you over the course of several seasons.



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