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Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: 1st Inning score:yes- chase system for 3-4 game series.
MrMannix send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: 5Dimes |
MrMannix
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#1
Posted: 6/20/2013 8:19:08 PM
I was thinking of back testing how I would be to chase a 1st inning score:yes for every series on the board. Basically play that there will be at least 1 run scored in the 1st inning of any game in a series. I have done a little back testing starting in June. Very early results look promising. 
Would use a labby line in the chases.
It would also be a lot of plays- up to 16 plays every 3-4 days.
If it looks probable- will try to start it up at the All-Star break.
I will post back test results as I get to them
GLTA
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MrMannix send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: 5Dimes |
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#2
Posted: 6/21/2013 3:35:13 PM
I just saw Degengamblers thread. He has a great angle with the 1st inning score. Will back test that when I have a chance & post some results over there.
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DegenGamble send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
DegenGamble
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#3
Posted: 6/21/2013 4:01:12 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by MrMannix:

I just saw Degengamblers thread. He has a great angle with the 1st inning score. Will back test that when I have a chance & post some results over there.

We should combine forces MrMannix - I am still looking into improving and adding additional data points to the system.  If you could backtest to see what works that would be great.  Download the latest version (V2)

I included logic to download "by inning scoring" from Don Best (Don Best Data Tab) - you may be able to use it to Back Test.

Right now i'm only looking at the following:


However, I was thinking maybe looking at the following as well:

% that team scores in 1st inning in each series
% that team scores in A or B game in series
Pitcher % scoring in 1st inning

For the first one - the idea is to filter out teams that only score in 1 game in the series - we want teams that score in more than one game in a series
For the 2nd one we want to filter out teams that only score in 1st inning on C games - would rather win on the A or B
For the 3rd one - maybe we can also look at pitchers in the series and make sure their 1st inning scoring is over / under a certain %


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#4
Posted: 6/21/2013 4:01:50 PM
Here is the link to download V2

https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B5dydT9Oe6JbNV9tQ0wyamFUMlE/edit?usp=sharing
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MrUnlucky send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#5
Posted: 8/6/2013 2:02:53 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by DegenGamble:

Here is the link to download V2

https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B5dydT9Oe6JbNV9tQ0wyamFUMlE/edit?usp=sharing

I've been thinking about this strategy for quite a bit and this is the best looking setup I've seen. Does the latest version of your doc auto-import the TR stats or do you have to import those manually?
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#6
Posted: 8/6/2013 4:12:09 PM
QUOTE
Also, how do you get the data for the 1st 5 auto-imported? Looks like you gathered that from DonBest.

Great spreadsheet btw. If you need help testing back data, let me know what I can do. I've never done it before but I'm a quick learner.

Originally Posted by DegenGamble:

Here is the link to download V2

https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B5dydT9Oe6JbNV9tQ0wyamFUMlE/edit?usp=sharing
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