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Author: [NFL Betting] Topic: Let's remember a couple of facts--Pats Backers
MoneySRH
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#51
Posted: 1/21/2012 10:32:30 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by scotty0129:


The Pats havent blown the Ravens out in years (look it up).  Do you even watch football?  Pats will not cover. 
I would ask you the same question? Do you watch football? Did you even watch the Ravens play all of those awful games this year? Titans, Browns, Seahawks, Texans, Jaguars and Chargers were all the games the Ravens absolutely stunk up the field. When teams struggle to win against those kind of opponents it tells me a lot about the teams talent and character. Teams that the Patriots would just embarrass and absolutely destroy this Sunday. Do you know that the Patriots roster is 100 percent different than the last match up they had? The past means jack squat in the match up. Same ravens team but completely different offense. I bet you didn't even check who was on the roster in that 2010 match up. Welker guess what? He didn't even play! I bet you didn't even know that. Did you know that the patriots didn't have Tom Brady Ridley Green-Ellis Woodhead Branch Ocho Welker Hernandez Gronkowski all on the field that year. Go look up the roster for that year.

I could see a 7 point win by the Pats sharpshooter with the possibility of a back door cover. This Pats offense is impossible to slow down in my mind. The Ravens/Jets are just not worth me bankin on in this spot.

I hedged my bet 6 different ways and I just don't see 7 points as much of a lead before the game starts. The books would have to spot me at least 14.5 for me to even consider taking the Ravens. To me it's about making an investment and i am willing to invest my money on a proven product.
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#52
Posted: 1/21/2012 12:51:48 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by theclaw:

 

That's all great and everything........................but.................what does it all mean ? Do you have any history to back-up that info as meaningful ?

 

Like perhaps this.....................................Since 1970 when a team has at least 5 more wins against teams that finish the season with winning records than their opponent, the team with more wins is 9-4 (69%), huge advantage Ravens.

And quess who picked-up the last 2 losses in this stat, yep those Pats..............................................

The team with more small wins by 1-8 pts over teams with losing records has won 28% of the time.

Pats 3 small wins...................Ravens 1 small win, huge advantage Ravens

The team with more large wins by 14 pts or more against teams with winning records has won 76% of the time.

Ravens 2 large wins.................Pats 0 large wins, huge advantage Ravens.  

When history speaks regarding schedule it's time to listen.........................................




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MoneySRH
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#53
Posted: 1/21/2012 2:40:06 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by theclaw:

 

That's all great and everything........................but.................what does it all mean ? Do you have any history to back-up that info as meaningful ?

 

Like perhaps this.....................................Since 1970 when a team has at least 5 more wins against teams that finish the season with winning records than their opponent, the team with more wins is 9-4 (69%), huge advantage Ravens.

And quess who picked-up the last 2 losses in this stat, yep those Pats..............................................

The team with more small wins by 1-8 pts over teams with losing records has won 28% of the time.

Pats 3 small wins...................Ravens 1 small win, huge advantage Ravens

The team with more large wins by 14 pts or more against teams with winning records has won 76% of the time.

Ravens 2 large wins.................Pats 0 large wins, huge advantage Ravens.  

When history speaks regarding schedule it's time to listen.........................................

By far the most bullshit I have read about this game so far. The past means garbage when it comes to this game.  You guy's go ahead and invest in this pathetic ravens team. I will invest my money in a proven product. I am going to laugh my behind off on sunday.
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#54
Posted: 1/21/2012 4:28:00 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by theclaw:

 

That's all great and everything........................but.................what does it all mean ? Do you have any history to back-up that info as meaningful ?

 

Like perhaps this.....................................Since 1970 when a team has at least 5 more wins against teams that finish the season with winning records than their opponent, the team with more wins is 9-4 (69%), huge advantage Ravens.

And quess who picked-up the last 2 losses in this stat, yep those Pats..............................................

The team with more small wins by 1-8 pts over teams with losing records has won 28% of the time.

Pats 3 small wins...................Ravens 1 small win, huge advantage Ravens

The team with more large wins by 14 pts or more against teams with winning records has won 76% of the time.

Ravens 2 large wins.................Pats 0 large wins, huge advantage Ravens.  

When history speaks regarding schedule it's time to listen.........................................



I would say that 13 occurrences over 42 years is statistically irrelevant. The other 2 seem just as irrelevant.

I am certain that if I wanted to I can find obscure trends that favor the Patriots. However, it would be a waste of time because they would be irrelevant as those things have absolutely zero bearing on what is going to happen tomorrow.

The game will be played AND won by one of the teams tomorrow based solely on what happens on the field tomorrow. Not based on what happened in a collection of 13 games since 1970. Not based on what happened in a playoff game 2 years ago. Not based on what happened in any other game played this season.

My point was simply that the Patriots are not as bad as some are making them out to be and the Ravens are not as good as some are making them out to be. The reverse is true as well as there are certainly others trying to make the Patriots seem like world beaters that could not possibly lose the game (e.g. 99.99% sure) and the make Ravens seem like some sort of fraud team.
 
I believe the Patriots will win the game (of course no where close to 99.99% sure) but I lean to the game being close.

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#55
Posted: 1/22/2012 4:34:56 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by MoneySRH:

I have yet to see a single respectable argument for picking the Ravens. I have read everything about why the ravens are the pick and have yet to be impressed. To be honest all of the reasons i have been reading on here to pick the ravens have been hilarious.

I am 99.9 percent sure the Patriots win str8 up and dominate this game. Like i said the only reasons that the patriots might not win this game has nothing to do with the ravens.

I put 90% of my BR on this game and I am basically all in on this one Sunday. I put 90% of my BR cuz i need to save that 10% in case of the refs screw me, injuries happen and the chance that brady might get sick that day.

So what's your point?

Hmm, really big blowout going on here...
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#56
Posted: 1/22/2012 9:14:30 PM
As I said, ravens easy.
Posted using a mobile device.
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#57
Posted: 1/22/2012 9:25:35 PM
i love all you guys who dog the pats then take balt.plus the points if pats suck that bad take ravens su pussys
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#58
Posted: 1/23/2012 12:05:59 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by manbo54:

i love all you guys who dog the pats then take balt.plus the points if pats suck that bad take ravens su pussys

Well, for starters, no one should be dumb enough to not take the points.  Secondly, no one backing the Ravens said they would definitely win.  They all said it would be a close game.  I recall one Patriot backer saying this is a blowout 9 out of 10 times.  I'm glad he lost a lot of money on that one.  Maybe he will learn a lesson I was trying to teach him.  There are no such things as locks in the NFL.
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MoneySRH
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#59
Posted: 1/23/2012 12:46:53 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Mikniks:


Well, for starters, no one should be dumb enough to not take the points.  Secondly, no one backing the Ravens said they would definitely win.  They all said it would be a close game.  I recall one Patriot backer saying this is a blowout 9 out of 10 times.  I'm glad he lost a lot of money on that one.  Maybe he will learn a lesson I was trying to teach him.  There are no such things as locks in the NFL.
I will take it you were referring to me

I was post # 40 on this thread and I said… I bet on the -7 spread, bought down to 6.5 on one, teasers, props, ALT spreads and a huge bet on the ML.

Went 4-2 on the Patriots game

Then on the 9ers game I said in illnasty’s thread post #30 and 51 and 57…

This is the most money i have ever placed on a game all year, including college and NFL this season. This is as close to a guarantee as you're going to get in sports betting

Next, on to the 9ers I have a bet on the ML, ALT, and one teaser

2-1 on the 9ers game

Nevertheless, much respect for those who had the +7. Talk about a lucky call on that spread. Brady played the worst game of his career today

I got Patriots for -300 and let it go man we both were right and both won money. It's the books who are the real enemy. You were right about the spread, I was right about the patriots, and like I said, I guaranteed the Patriots would win

I went 6-3 on the day for a large chunk of change

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#60
Posted: 1/23/2012 5:03:50 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by MoneySRH:

I will take it you were referring to me

I was post # 40 on this thread and I said… I bet on the -7 spread, bought down to 6.5 on one, teasers, props, ALT spreads and a huge bet on the ML.

Went 4-2 on the Patriots game

Then on the 9ers game I said in illnasty’s thread post #30 and 51 and 57…

This is the most money i have ever placed on a game all year, including college and NFL this season. This is as close to a guarantee as you're going to get in sports betting

Next, on to the 9ers I have a bet on the ML, ALT, and one teaser

2-1 on the 9ers game

Nevertheless, much respect for those who had the +7. Talk about a lucky call on that spread. Brady played the worst game of his career today

I got Patriots for -300 and let it go man we both were right and both won money. It's the books who are the real enemy. You were right about the spread, I was right about the patriots, and like I said, I guaranteed the Patriots would win

I went 6-3 on the day for a large chunk of change


You guaranteed a blowout dude.  Don't backtrack.  And Brady always struggles with the Ravens D.  You didn't know this?  Ravens probably should have won this game.
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