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[Gaming Industry - US] Topic: Is it possable to handicapp better than 53% |
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eyeball |
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#26 Posted: 3/26/2009 3:20:40 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by cts99: Perfect example mickey fingers posted his record. The man had over 1000 wagers and made 3000. This by the way is no refection on mickey. There is to much risk and not near enough return.He his playing 3 or so games per day give or take a few.Heck i may bet 3 a week.I played 2 games this week and that was last night the spurs over 208-. won that, and pushed on the suns monday night.This is the only way i can beat the man on a regular basis. My last 2 losing weeks i had were 60dollars and 33dollars.I p[lay between 300 and 500 per game. By the way i do parlay sometimes and it kills my man when i hit.Keep your losses low and take your and profit when you win Stick to that formula and you will do alright. By the way you still have to pick winners.
CTS so you are saying less plays are better be more selective in your plays? |
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pic_poppa |
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#27 Posted: 3/26/2009 7:10:27 PM
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eyeball |
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#28 Posted: 3/26/2009 9:41:44 PM yeah poppa
I think its a game sometines I have had too much make a bet and wow it wins!
I really dont think its scientific at all .its entertainment.
EXCEPT WHEN I ARB OR PLAY BOTHS SIDES FOR EXAMPLE TAKING THE DOG WITH A FAVORITE RUN LINE YOU CANT LOOSE
I think the books know this that no one can bet 1000 games per year be deciplined and allways bet 1-2% of your roll... its boreing
Take Duke tonight -2..not -2.5
have a good one |
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cts99 |
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#29 Posted: 3/28/2009 12:43:24 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by eyeball:
CTS so you are saying less plays are better be more selective in your plays? yes you get to chose who you bet on. If you play everyday you become so wraped up up gambling you will lose focus and not think with a clear head. I passed thursday night in the ncaa , there was nothing i liked.So friday i like 2 games on the board did my homework and cashed both had oklahoma over and nc over. So my week is 3-0-1 1100 to the good. Today i am not really feeling good about the 2 games so i will pass. I pick and choose, not the bookie.. |
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cts99 |
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#30 Posted: 3/28/2009 10:08:59 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by cts99:
yes you get to chose who you bet on. If you play everyday you become so wraped up up gambling you will lose focus and not think with a clear head. I passed thursday night in the ncaa , there was nothing i liked.So friday i like 2 games on the board did my homework and cashed both had oklahoma over and nc over. So my week is 3-0-1 1100 to the good. Today i am not really feeling good about the 2 games so i will pass. I pick and choose, not the bookie.. I passed today and you see those two games were so hard to capp Hell they both came down to the final second and to the last shots. Lets face it who ever won was lucky and losers were unlucky.
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rmd822 |
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#31 Posted: 3/30/2009 3:33:07 PM To give you an idea of real percentages lets say you have 1000 you are going to wager with. If you decided to wager 10% of your bankroll on every wager,one wager a day, and you picked 60% winners at -110 a little over 5 years latter you would come to a point were you hade won 1200 wagers and lost 800. At that point you would have turned your 1000 into 550 billion. It sound rediculos but the math comnpletely supports it. Most hadicappers are more than happy to win 54% to 57% so dont get down on yourself just because you lost a couple of games. The way i look at it is 50% of our selections are won by luck and dont go the way we had thought they would. so if we make 100 wagers we will go 25-25 in that senario. In the games that actually do go the way we had perdicted if we can go 35-15 we will end up with 60-40 (60%) It is also a good idea to bet more when you are winning a less when you are losing, because people tend to go on hot and cold streaks. And that way even if you do pick 50% you may still roll away even. |
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vanzack |
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#32 Posted: 3/30/2009 4:22:43 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by rmd822:
To give you an idea of real percentages lets say you have 1000 you are going to wager with. If you decided to wager 10% of your bankroll on every wager,one wager a day, and you picked 60% winners at -110 a little over 5 years latter you would come to a point were you hade won 1200 wagers and lost 800. At that point you would have turned your 1000 into 550 billion. It sound rediculos but the math comnpletely supports it. Most hadicappers are more than happy to win 54% to 57% so dont get down on yourself just because you lost a couple of games. The way i look at it is 50% of our selections are won by luck and dont go the way we had thought they would. so if we make 100 wagers we will go 25-25 in that senario. In the games that actually do go the way we had perdicted if we can go 35-15 we will end up with 60-40 (60%) It is also a good idea to bet more when you are winning a less when you are losing, because people tend to go on hot and cold streaks. And that way even if you do pick 50% you may still roll away even.
You leave out the amount of times you would go broke in the same scenario.
Your math is not good - and when you say " It is also a good idea to bet more when you are winning a less when you are losing, because people tend to go on hot and cold streaks" you totally lose all credibility.
Im not going to go in to a big mathematical formula to prove you wrong because I dont have the energy, but your math is wrong. |
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vanzack |
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#33 Posted: 3/30/2009 4:41:12 PM Sorry - I think I need to correct my last statement.
I didnt realize what I now think you were suggesting - a rolling 10% wager on your balance. I thought you were suggesting a 100 per game bet based on your initial balance.
The problem with this is the obvious - who is going to let you bet 1 million plus per side (which you would hit pretty quickly) - but you would probably average the number you put up.
I still totally disagree with your streaks comment - but the other part I stand corrected.
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WoodroW23 |
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#34 Posted: 3/30/2009 5:02:52 PM Absolutely not a good idea to to determine your plays of getting "early lines", lines do not move that drastically most of the time. The people who love their favorite at -3 and is afraid of the closing line of -4 is putting too much stock into their "early" line. If one is afraid of a losing by a 1.5 pts. then maybe you shouldnt being betting that particular game. Putting money on a game that you think you may only win by 1 pt is a stupid play, whether you end up winning or losing. My advice especially in nba: watch the line movement and the amount of money on each side. Then decide to go with or against the public. Games that show no movement or absolutely give you no ideas at all , stay away. |
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rmd822 |
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#35 Posted: 3/30/2009 7:05:08 PM The point I was trying to make with the 550 billion senario was not that anyone could or should attempt this ( 10% wagers is is a little high) but rather that if he is listening to the people who say they pick 60%, 70%, or sometimes even higher over a long period of time. He should check and see if they a at least millionaires because if not they are either lying to him or the worst money managers ever. To be realistic a 54% to 57% long term goal is what he should try to acomplish and not get discouraged over losing almost half of his games because in essense thats pretty close to normal |
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MikeyFingers |
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#36 Posted: 3/30/2009 7:07:08 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by rmd822:
To give you an idea of real percentages lets say you have 1000 you are going to wager with. If you decided to wager 10% of your bankroll on every wager,one wager a day, and you picked 60% winners at -110 a little over 5 years latter you would come to a point were you hade won 1200 wagers and lost 800. At that point you would have turned your 1000 into 550 billion. It sound rediculos but the math comnpletely supports it. Most hadicappers are more than happy to win 54% to 57% so dont get down on yourself just because you lost a couple of games. The way i look at it is 50% of our selections are won by luck and dont go the way we had thought they would. so if we make 100 wagers we will go 25-25 in that senario. In the games that actually do go the way we had perdicted if we can go 35-15 we will end up with 60-40 (60%) It is also a good idea to bet more when you are winning a less when you are losing, because people tend to go on hot and cold streaks. And that way even if you do pick 50% you may still roll away even.
How is this possible?
If you're betting 10% of your rolling balance on 1 bet a day, you would profit around $50,000.00/year if you can pick 60%. This is based on $1,000 initial bankroll.
Also, you would have to assume that you hit 60% each month. Let's say you have a bad month when your bankroll is high. You'll get killed betting 10% of your bankroll.
Maybe my math is wrong. |
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rmd822 |
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#37 Posted: 3/30/2009 8:34:59 PM To answer the thought is to wager 100 which is 10% of 1000 if you win it would make your bankroll 1100 then you would place 110 which at that point would be 10% of your bankroll if you win your bankroll would be 1210 your next wager would be 121( you get the picture) It makes no difference if you win one then loss one or if you loss all 800 straight then win 1200 straight the math is the same. 550 billion |
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#38 Posted: 3/30/2009 8:55:59 PM I think you might be sugesting a once a year cash out, but your numbers show a 1 year profit of 50 to 1 if this continues after 2 years you,ll have 250,000, after 3 years 125,000,000, after 4 years you'll have 6,250,000,000, and after 5 years 31,250,000,000. far exceding my number. ( But id double check my math) |
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#39 Posted: 3/30/2009 9:17:51 PM |
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#40 Posted: 3/30/2009 10:07:16 PM Long story short the person we ( or at least I) had hoped to help with his question hasn't responded, so all our advice falls on deaf ears. bol to all |
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timbaland99 |
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#41 Posted: 3/30/2009 11:00:11 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by rmd822: Long story short the person we ( or at least I) had hoped to help with his question hasn't responded, so all our advice falls on deaf ears. bol to all
Who is supposed to answer this?
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#42 Posted: 3/30/2009 11:19:53 PM |
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#43 Posted: 3/31/2009 11:23:06 AM
1. Disciplined betting - limiting your action to the best games
2. The importance of getting a good line, or laying off the game
3. That it is work - whether you use a spreadsheet or just immerse yourself in the sport and handicap by "feel."
I'm not smart enough to use complex algorithms to attack the books' lines, but I do have time to immerse myself in one sport (NBA) and develop a pretty good feel for which teams will play hard in different situations. The public tends to always bet the stronger team and lay points. You can make money by fading them.
The best "system" I have for picking winners is to look for motivational situations: bet against the public favorite on an underdog getting points where the dog has a big motivational edge over the favorite. A perfect example is the New York at Utah game played 3/30. Utah was an 11-pt favorite facing an in-conference opponent the next night. They played to conserve their energy and limited some players' minutes. They won by 8, and it was much closer than that in the last half minute of the 4th quarter.
You can find your own edge, but it's good to define your edges in advance and just look for games where that edge is present. Otherwise you tend to end up guessing... and betting too many games.
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depeche2 |
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#44 Posted: 3/31/2009 12:02:19 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by WoodroW23: Absolutely not a good idea to to determine your plays of getting "early lines", lines do not move that drastically most of the time. The people who love their favorite at -3 and is afraid of the closing line of -4 is putting too much stock into their "early" line. If one is afraid of a losing by a 1.5 pts. then maybe you shouldnt being betting that particular game. Putting money on a game that you think you may only win by 1 pt is a stupid play, whether you end up winning or losing. My advice especially in nba: watch the line movement and the amount of money on each side. Then decide to go with or against the public. Games that show no movement or absolutely give you no ideas at all , stay away.
Terrible post. If you don't understand just how big of a difference -4 is vs. -3 then you shouldn't be betting.
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MikeyFingers |
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#45 Posted: 3/31/2009 2:01:30 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by rmd822:
I think you might be sugesting a once a year cash out, but your numbers show a 1 year profit of 50 to 1 if this continues after 2 years you,ll have 250,000, after 3 years 125,000,000, after 4 years you'll have 6,250,000,000, and after 5 years 31,250,000,000. far exceding my number. ( But id double check my math)
Yup, you're right. I went back and kept the formula going for 5 years and I came up with the same thing you did.
Once your bankroll hit a million, you'd probably stop anyway- but amazing what could happen if you could actually hit 60% for that long. |
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cts99 |
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#46 Posted: 3/31/2009 7:13:46 PM
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