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Author: [NFL Betting] Topic: NFL Week 1
andarmac99 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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#76
Posted: 9/10/2012 4:13:10 PM
raems - Agree. Though if anyone who didn't see the game sees the statline they may think that thought is crazy. Kid just has the it factor. Haven't seen you in the forums much lately, don't be a stranger.

Glyde - Not sure how much I'll be around this week, out of town from tomorrow til late week. Not loving the early card. Have the Rams +3 already, not so much (though it is a part) because of the overreaction but more so just how I see the Skins mindset. Getting hyped all offseason to go in there and show what you can do against a power team like the Saints then making that statement is one thing. Having to go home to a great feel-good environment and THEN having to go back out on the road to play a 2-14 team is just a tough, tough spot IMO. Rams are much better than last year, that defense will be tough at home. The Redskins would have been much better served to play at home this week. They would have killed the Rams there. Jags, Steelers, and Packers only ones that stuck out early. Haven't looked much been looking at college today.
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#77
Posted: 9/10/2012 11:50:57 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by andarmac99:

Have the Rams +3 already, not so much (though it is a part) because of the overreaction but more so just how I see the Skins mindset. Getting hyped all offseason to go in there and show what you can do against a power team like the Saints then making that statement is one thing. Having to go home to a great feel-good environment and THEN having to go back out on the road to play a 2-14 team is just a tough, tough spot IMO. Rams are much better than last year, that defense will be tough at home. The Redskins would have been much better served to play at home this week. They would have killed the Rams there. Jags, Steelers, and Packers only ones that stuck out early. Haven't looked much been looking at college today.

I watched a lot of that Rams-Lions game and they out hit Detroit in a tough environment.  They will be very encouraged competing and almost winning against a mean playoff team after being the laughing stock of the league.

Pretty certain I'm gonna be on them hopefully I don't talk myself out of the play like I did with the Jets this week.  Being a Niners fan that's obviously the only game I watched in the afternoon.  I was very very impressed.  I noticed 2 things- Rodgers really started to heat up and finally look comfortable in the 4th Q and the Niners are just polished at all positions.   I'm interested in laying the chalk with both GB and SF.  I had the Bears at -9.5, but they were not terrific on D and with a short week and less time to prepare for a great offense and angry team in GB that won't want to lose 3 in a row they will struggle.

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#78
Posted: 9/10/2012 11:53:40 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by andarmac99:

raems - Haven't seen you in the forums much lately, don't be a stranger.

Ya Kool-Aid we'd like to hear your thoughts.  Good to see you bud!

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#79
Posted: 9/11/2012 1:15:16 AM
Ugh. Rams Center placed on IR with a broken foot.

Baker - SF just came out and smacked the Packers square in the mouth. Very tough, fundamentally sound team. I think it's either SF or nothing for the next few weeks. Pack line up to 6 at a stinky -110. Not a huge loss from 5 to 6 though I have a sample of 4,000 NFL games and games land on 6 the 3rd most of any number. I don't like the spot for the Bears on the road on short prep time against a team that was pushed around on their own field last game. Bears only get one practice before this one as well. On the other hand this is the biggest game of the season for the Bears until possibly Week 15 again against the Pack.

Pretty sure I'll be on the Steelers at anything under a TD. Just remembered PIT is in a spot that has historically been very strong for them. I'll have to dig up the exact numbers later I have them somewhere. Have a feeling the Jets are going to struggle scoring big time.
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#80
Posted: 9/12/2012 2:59:42 AM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by andarmac99:

Ugh. Rams Center placed on IR with a broken foot.

Pack line up to 6 at a stinky -110. Not a huge loss from 5 to 6 though I have a sample of 4,000 NFL games and games land on 6 the 3rd most of any number. I don't like the spot for the Bears on the road on short prep time against a team that was pushed around on their own field last game. Bears only get one practice before this one as well. On the other hand this is the biggest game of the season for the Bears until possibly Week 15 again against the Pack.

Haven't looked into the Pitt game yet and don't have a great feel for it but I'm intrigued to hear your thoughts if you get a chance to post.

As for the Bears game the more I think about it the more I feel as though the Bears will do very well here, contrary to my initial beliefs.

The short rest IMO may hurt GB more than Chicago.  The Pack have a very similar team as they did last season and unfortunately for them have some banged up players (Jennings, Bishop etc).  The Bears know this Packers team well having lost to them the past 4 matchups and am sure have been prepping for this big match like you stated in your last post.

The Packers are reeling right now and in b2b big home games got knocked around by arrogant and talented teams in the Giants and Niners.  Usually I'd look to back an angry, talented team, but I think the Packers have some doubt in themselves and the last thing they'd probably want to face is another talented, cocky team in the Bears on a short 3 day week.  They won't have the luxuries of calming themselves down and fixing those secondary mistakes and O-Line problems compared to a full week of practice and film.  The Packers also know that this is a reloaded Bears team, not the lame duck Bears they have beaten up on the past couple of seasons.  Cutler's interview set the tone that it's a new year and they are coming in for the kill against the wounded Cheeseheads.

Green Bay has not seen much of the Bears new offense.  Usually a short week would hurt a new offense on the road, but Cutler and Marshall know each other very well and Michael Bush fit in well as the complementary back.  I think the Bears will have some plays up their sleeves that the Packers may not be ready for. 

I'm just shooting some thoughts that just came to my mind.  Tough to fade Rodgers in Lambeau off a home fav loss but I think it could very well happen.

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#81
Posted: 9/12/2012 4:28:35 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by mtbaker:

Haven't looked into the Pitt game yet and don't have a great feel for it but I'm intrigued to hear your thoughts if you get a chance to post.

As for the Bears game the more I think about it the more I feel as though the Bears will do very well here, contrary to my initial beliefs.

The short rest IMO may hurt GB more than Chicago.  The Pack have a very similar team as they did last season and unfortunately for them have some banged up players (Jennings, Bishop etc).  The Bears know this Packers team well having lost to them the past 4 matchups and am sure have been prepping for this big match like you stated in your last post.

The Packers are reeling right now and in b2b big home games got knocked around by arrogant and talented teams in the Giants and Niners.  Usually I'd look to back an angry, talented team, but I think the Packers have some doubt in themselves and the last thing they'd probably want to face is another talented, cocky team in the Bears on a short 3 day week.  They won't have the luxuries of calming themselves down and fixing those secondary mistakes and O-Line problems compared to a full week of practice and film.  The Packers also know that this is a reloaded Bears team, not the lame duck Bears they have beaten up on the past couple of seasons.  Cutler's interview set the tone that it's a new year and they are coming in for the kill against the wounded Cheeseheads.

Green Bay has not seen much of the Bears new offense.  Usually a short week would hurt a new offense on the road, but Cutler and Marshall know each other very well and Michael Bush fit in well as the complementary back.  I think the Bears will have some plays up their sleeves that the Packers may not be ready for. 

I'm just shooting some thoughts that just came to my mind.  Tough to fade Rodgers in Lambeau off a home fav loss but I think it could very well happen.

Pretty good analysis from you on GB, I know them inside and out.  Jennings is banged up, a groin and may not play; Bishop as we know is out for the year.  One lineup change which should help GB defense will be a switch at safety when GB goes to their nickel package.  They played a lot of base against SF with Woodson and Burnett playing safety and MD Jennings replacing Woodson when they switched to nickel moving Woodson to the slot.  Jennings blew the coverage on the Moss TD and was replaced later by McMillian who's a hitter and good at the L.O.S. They actually played better defensively in the 2nd half and he played a part in that, but SF was much better up front on both sides of the ball that day.  As an aside, the officiating was atrocious in this game with SF getting every call in the first half helping their T.O.P. and then the blown block in the back that wasn't called on the Cobb runback.
Just Pathetic all the way around....

This seems like a good spot for GB on the short week, but my fears of a slow start by them haven't wained.  Their training camp was a mess, racked with multiple injuries starting in the 2nd week.  At one point 20 guys were out for multiple days cutting practices shorter then normal.  The preseason was sloppy and it's spilled over into the regular season. Will they hit their groove against the Bears?  Maybe, they'll keep on seeing similar schemes of 4 man fronts, backers playing 7-10 yards off the ball and deep safeties daring GB to run the ball.  The Bears corners aren't as talented as San Fran's and Tillman is hurting for the Bears, Rodgers should be able to find more lanes against Chicago.  Still, can't trust em' until I see better and can't fault anyone for liking the Bears here, my .02. 
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#82
Posted: 9/12/2012 4:45:07 AM
This is continually the best thread in the NFL forum. Don't have to wade through any petty bullshit to get solid info and great angles. Thanks Mac

I was on the Saints with you, as I also thought RG3 was being way oversold, especially given how he struggled so badly on the road in college. He was absolutely horrible @ TAMU, @ OKST, @ TCU in '10...hell he was even mediocre for 3.5 quarters against Kansas. However the Saints were quite clearly in disarray from the months of speculation about bounties and dismissed coaches. Thankfully I had the Ravens and the Jets as well, but N.O. being a no-show got me a little perturbed to start the year.

Being a lifelong Dallas resident, I have got to say, if I'm getting the Seahawks at 3.5 I'm taking it and running with it. It would be just like the Cowboys to score their biggest regular season win in years and then piss it down the drain by losing to Seattle. Plus, Seattle has the corners to get physical with Austin and Dez, and the Seahawks were excellent at limiting big plays in the run game last year. DeMarco Murray made most of those big plays against the Giants by himself and I was unimpressed with the new guards Livings and Bernadeau in terms of creating holes in the run game. Now I'm talking myself into the Under 41.5 a bit, haha.

BOL this week; always look forward to your threads 
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#83
Posted: 9/12/2012 9:30:06 PM
Baker + Stevedore good stuff there. While I don't like the spot for the Bears I just can't get past the fact this is the biggest game of the year for them and they were swept by GB last season losing by DD both times. While the thought of Rodgers being sharp/on point and shredding is an easy one to have (as is the Bears o-line falling apart) something tells me the much more physical Bears this season will make this very much a game. I can make a good case for either side now, could be a good game to wait until 2H. No play here for me. GL to those on either side.
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#84
Posted: 9/12/2012 9:35:03 PM
Rollbama - This is almost always a spot I would have already pulled the trigger on SEA in a smelly spot for Dallas and against a defense I feel will be tough as nails at home. Maybe it's just the thought that this is a different Cowboys team that is clouding my mind and preventing me from pulling the trigger. Definitely lean SEA here but may wait til Sunday before paying to see the Cowboys prove they have changed.

Good thoughts on the game and GL.
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#85
Posted: 9/12/2012 9:40:53 PM
Add Jacksonville +7.5

Just think the Jags are build to be a tough out this season. Houston doesn't seem battle tested to me after a yawner against the Dolphins. Plus the Texans play @ Denver next week. If that kid hadn't hit a 55 yarder last week we would have been talking about how Blaine Gabbert led a game winning TD drive on the road. Jags always seem to steal a game or two as home dogs. Sign me up for a division scrap. Houston doesn't have a blowout type offense either.
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#86
Posted: 9/12/2012 9:43:58 PM
@ and99 - you said you have a sample of over 4000 games and 6 is the third most landed on number. I know that 3 is the most common, but I was curious what is the 2nd? Is it 7? I would guess 4 is the fourth, and 10 the fifth? I'd be curious to see the top 5 most landed on or top 10 even better if you wouldn't mind posting it.
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#87
Posted: 9/16/2012 1:35:20 AM
Haven't had much time to drop any thoughts this week, no sense in starting new thread. Rest of the card:

Pittsburgh -5

Yeah the D is old and banged up but they were more banged up last year and still held opponents to 10 points a game at home. Year before that it was 13.8. Only 3 teams have scored more than 17 in this building over that span. Jets offense to me is much more similar to what we saw in preseason than last week where everything fell into place. To me Revis + Keller (both already ruled OUT) are far more important losses than Harrison + Polamalu would be (both game time calls). Revis runs that defense and without him PIT can spread the field and find holes. Sanchez loses his safety valve and if PIT stops the run where does he go? If the Jets score more than 14 here against the best D-Coordinator in the game off a bad game then I'll tip my cap and move on. PIT will find points with plenty of speed against a spaced out D and quite honestly a lot of slow players in the back 7.


NY Giants -7

No idea why this line dropped to 7 and I couldn't care less. Last week Tampa closed +3 at home to Carolina implying if that game were played in Carolina the Panthers would be about -8.5ish. Are we really saying the Panthers are better on a neutral field than the Giants? Nonsense. These guys are the Super Bowl champs with one of the best D-lines in the game. That unit was terrible against the Cowboys and IMO will show up large this week and eat up a Tampa offense that really was not impressive at all against a bad Panthers D last week. This will be the real test for the new Bucs defense against a top notch QB and receivers that will be plenty focused this week. Think we have all the ingredients here for a "reality check" beating.

Still have Rams +3 and Jags +7.5. Bet the Rams early and got a bad line and have lost a strong feel for the bet. Bad combo. Just going to have to ride it out at this point and hope the initial read is correct.


GL this week fellas.


Yanasaur - Top 10 is 3, 7, 6, 10, 4, 14, 1, 2, 17, and 11 in that order. Ranging from 15% at 3 to just under 4% on 17 and 11. Lot of people dismiss the 1 and 2 as dead numbers but about 1 in 12 games lands on 1 or 2.
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#88
Posted: 9/16/2012 2:56:51 AM

Here is an interesting STAT that has implications in two games this week:

Teams as DIVISIONAL DOGS in HOME OPENERS are 10-2-1 since 2010. Also, note that they won all 10 games they covered as dogs.

CAR +3 vs NOR
JAX +7' vs HOU

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#89
Posted: 9/16/2012 5:58:25 PM
 good thread, appreciate your work
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#90
Posted: 9/16/2012 8:13:51 PM
Rams buddy!
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#91
Posted: 9/17/2012 7:38:14 PM
Add:

Denver +3

We can talk about the offenses and no huddle all we want but this game IMO will come down to defense. I'm higher on this Broncos unit than most. Even though Champ Bailey is not the Champ Bailey of 5 years ago the Broncos still have 2 above average starting corners. They also have 2 (possibly 3 if you believe the praises of Derek Wolfe they are singing) above average pass rushers on the edge. Those are the pieces needed to formulate a decent pass defense. The Broncos D is weak up the middle. They will struggle against power teams that throat them up the middle (like their opponent next week). The Falcons best strategy here would be to pound Turner/Rodgers until Denver can stop em. But now with this new no-huddle and all these passing weapons I just think there will be a tendency to stick to the air. Like the Ravens yesterday letting Flacco air it out 40+ times while Rice gets 16 carries in a game they trail for all of 5 minutes. Not saying the Falcons pull a Cam Cameron but this staff has done some mind-boggling things in the past. This Broncos D allowed 4 yards a play last week with 5 sacks and would have had 10 if the opposing QB wasn't Big Ben escaping every play on 3rd down and making something out of nothing. TOP and the overall yards were close but Denver outgained PIT 6.1 to 4.0 YPP last week.

The Falcons can change coordinators and change the offense completely all they want that was never their problem. They've won 10+ games every year playing the style they had. The fact is they've always been soft as garbage on defense and this year IMO nothing has changed. So much focus on the offense and they've got the same crappy defense. The defensive line is weak and they just lost their best corner for the year so they will be shuffling pieces. The Kansas City Chiefs punted a grand total of one time last week. If the Broncos turn it over 3 times like KC then I'll have to deal with it. Should also note from last week is that KC was missing half their starting secondary and the others guys were either playing their 1st game in a full year after knee reconstruction (Berry) or first game as a Chief (Routt). KC's only NFL caliber pass rusher also didn't even play. The Falcons better have put up some points last week.

Legit questions have been raised as to whether this is a statement game for the Falcons. Statement games usually occur when the better team is being disrespected/under-appreciated. I don't think Atlanta is the better team. Also this is Manning's first road game in about 20 months, this is the biggest concern for me but not enough to get off the bet.

GL.
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