Monday 4/9 AL Plays

Forum: MLB Betting
Author: [MLB Betting] Topic: Monday 4/9 AL Plays
IllusionsGOB PM IllusionsGOB
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Posted: 4/9/2012 12:22:58 AM
Sunday: 1-3, -1.67 Units
YTD: 5-7, +0.38 Units

Monday:

White Sox, even (1U)

White Sox under 7.5, -105 (2U)

Orioles, +147 (1U)

I'll be looking into the Twins game and the Royals game tomorrow. I have no idea what line-ups they're coming with so I'm holding off. Both teams are facing their first lefty of the year and Gardenhire's already unpredictable. Any insights or thoughts on what I've got are appreciated.


ManassaMauler PM ManassaMauler
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Posted: 4/9/2012 12:24:00 AM
IllusionsGOB PM IllusionsGOB
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Posted: 4/9/2012 2:56:44 AM
Thanks Mauler, GL Tomorrow
EastOakland PM EastOakland
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Posted: 4/9/2012 3:16:03 AM
lot of ppl like the white sox...
EastOakland PM EastOakland
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Posted: 4/9/2012 3:19:43 AM
I think ima have to roll with you on orioles, great value.
IllusionsGOB PM IllusionsGOB
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Posted: 4/9/2012 3:33:24 AM
Adding:

Athletics, -110 (4U)

I love this play so it's my largest of this young season. We have 2 starting pitchers with a total of 45 big league innings under their belts. That makes it tough to really get a feel but it's also tough to set a sharp line and the fact is I just think the books got it wrong (I have it at Oakland -161). Maybe it's surprising but I rate Oakland's offense against righties ahead of KC's offense against lefties. Oakland will do what they do and work counts against a pitcher with no experience, as they should. Make him beat you. KC is the youngest team in baseball and they're agressive but this isn't the spot for that. Milone is a young lefty somewhere in between Tom Glavine and Jaime Moyer in style. He changes speeds well and locates incredibly well. He had a 0.97 BB/9 in AAA last year to go with 4 BB's in 26 innings after he got the call. He is a flyball pitcher which works in this ballpark (i'll surely be fading him against texas' veteran hitters in that launching pad).

The A's sat at home enjoying their off day and maybe we get a let-down from yesterday's big opening series win by KC. It will be an adjustment in that it will be the first lefty KC faces this year after facing 3 sick righties. KC pulled off a big series upset because they love hitting righties. Aside from Francoeur (Butler is neutral) none of these young Royals has a clue against lefties, starting with budding star, Hosmer, who hit only 1 HR in 152 AB's off lefties. In fact, take out Francoeur(9), Gordon(8) and Butler(6) and players on the Royals today combined for only 5 HR of lefties last year.

I think there's also been just to much value created by the result of a good opening series for a Royal team that was set up nicely to possibly surprise.
IllusionsGOB PM IllusionsGOB
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Posted: 4/9/2012 3:36:10 AM
Thanks, East....

I love your hometown A's tomorrow.


IllusionsGOB PM IllusionsGOB
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Posted: 4/9/2012 11:47:37 AM
That's it for today.

A lot of people I respect seem to be on the royals which is never good. Just gotta hope for the best.

Good luck all
Posted using a mobile device.
IllusionsGOB PM IllusionsGOB
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Posted: 4/9/2012 1:53:28 PM
Final card:

White Sox, even (1U)

White Sox under 7.5, -105 (2U)

Orioles, +147 (1U)

Athletics, -110 (4U)

IllusionsGOB PM IllusionsGOB
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Posted: 4/9/2012 1:55:37 PM
Not everyone is seeing Darvish for the first time:

"According to #Mariners, Munenori Kawasaki career .221 vs. Darvis in Japan in 86 ABs. Only Mariner to have faced him before tonite."

tweeted by Greg Johns (Rangers beat writer)


I can't wait for that one
IllusionsGOB PM IllusionsGOB
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Posted: 4/9/2012 3:38:28 PM
adding one final play:

Athletics under 7.5, -105 (1U)

All the same thoughts as my A's play apply on that side. On the other side, Mendoza's strong spring is enough to make me wish I balanced my play on this game 3 units Oak/1 unit under. If I can find the Royals at +110 I'll buy back one unit but I don't see that line getting there (with the whole world on KC) so I'll probably just be exposed to 4/1.
IllusionsGOB PM IllusionsGOB
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Posted: 4/9/2012 3:39:51 PM
Updated card:

White Sox
, even (1U)


White Sox under 7.5, -105 (2U)

Orioles, +147 (1U)

Athletics, -110 (4U)

Athletics under 7.5, -105 (1U)
IllusionsGOB PM IllusionsGOB
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Posted: 4/9/2012 4:46:24 PM
Heads up:

No Jesus Montero in tonight's line-up against Yu.
IllusionsGOB PM IllusionsGOB
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Posted: 4/9/2012 5:06:54 PM
Heads up:

"Alex might sit tonight"

tweeted by Bob Dutton (Royals beat writer)


Assuming he's talking about Alex Gordon, this is very good news for Oakland and under. Gordon was one one only 3 qualified bats for the Royals against their first lefty of the year. If Hosmer or Moustakas (this would ensure his start) home tonight it will match their combined total in 230 at-bats last year. Francoeur and Butler just don't have much protection tonight against a guy with keyhole-command.

If this is true and Gordon is out, expect it to go at -125 and the total will drop to 7. This would be worth that much tonight.
IllusionsGOB PM IllusionsGOB
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Posted: 4/9/2012 6:13:23 PM
NL Line Alert:

Despite the public pounding over 9.5 in the Cubs game, the total just plummeted to 8.5-120u. It should be noted that 7, 9, and 11 are to baseball totals what 3, 7 and 10 are to NFL sides. Books don't cross 9 without a strong reason and the juice suggests 8 is coming soon.


IllusionsGOB PM IllusionsGOB
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Posted: 4/9/2012 6:43:22 PM
Heads up:

Royals are officially benching Gordon and Moustakas for Borgieos and Betancourt. Love my play without Gordon but I think Moustakas is addition by subtraction and it should be noted he will be available against the bullpen. Like I said earlier, this line should get to at least -125 and 7.
IllusionsGOB PM IllusionsGOB
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Posted: 4/9/2012 7:13:56 PM
adding:

Mariners +1.5, even (1U)

Athletics under 7.5, -115 (1U) just upping my 1U play to 2U
IllusionsGOB PM IllusionsGOB
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Posted: 4/9/2012 7:17:16 PM
Updated card:

White Sox
, even (1U)


White Sox under 7.5, -105 (2U)

Orioles, +147 (1U)

Mariners +1.5, even (1U)

Athletics
, -110 (4U)

Athletics under 7.5, -110 (2U) 1u@-105, 1u@-115


IllusionsGOB PM IllusionsGOB
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Posted: 4/9/2012 8:32:47 PM
Thank YU
IllusionsGOB PM IllusionsGOB
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Posted: 4/10/2012 12:44:59 AM
to Tom Milone
Forum: MLB Betting
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