Posted: 7/28/2012 11:45:05 AM
Yesterday: (2-5) -7.66
Last 7 days: (19-25) -4.5989
I have cooled off in an epic way over the past 2 days. Missed out on a 3 teamer last night only needing Cain and the Giants to pull off a win at home and they couldn't do it. Would have made a big difference but oh well. That's baseball.
Cold or not, the only way to get back to winning is to keep playing. On Wednesday I pulled in almost 14U. That's the way it goes with me lately, high highs and low lows, but I like the card today a LOT. Let's get to it.
Today there is one qualifying Teamrankings play. But since they lost me the first 2 in 28 days after a 12-0 run, I will be laying off of it. Just FYI, it is Cleveland / Minny Under 9 at 64.5%. Hopefully those guys can get their garbage together on the totals and I can jump back on when the next series starts.
Yesterday I found a HUGE 4 leaf clover with an error at one of my books. I got the Pirates RL at +1.5 for the same price as the -1.5 line. They had the plus line up at -115, so I bought it. A little later I noticed they had not fixed it so I bought it again for the max (2.5u). So today I have a whopping 5u on a -175 favorite at -115 and I've been spotted 1.5 runs. It did not get refunded and that...is just awesome.
Pirates +1.5 -115 5.75 / 5
I like the Tigers to win today. I know Toronto lit Anibal Sanchez up for 6 runs on 22 June, and I know the Tigers have not seen Alvarez. But Alvarez has given up 14 runs in his last 17 IP, and I think he gets mashed today.
Tigers -128 3.84 / 3
The Yankees are 21-12 vs. LH SP's, and are 6-1 against Boston this year, outscoring them 59-35. Sabathia has been a beast at home, while Lester has been terrible everywhere.
Matt Harrison will have much better luck against the Pale Hose than Darvish did yesterday. Harrison's July ERA is HALF of Darvish's, and he is facing off against Phil Humber today.
Let's put these two trends together for a parlay:
Of 60 YANKEES wins, 47 have come by more than one run.
Of 58 RANGERS wins, 46 have come by more than one run.
2 teamer: Yankees -RL -105 / Rangers -RL -110 3.667 / 10.0009
I have to follow the rule below, no matter who's on the other mound. Seattle hits lefties very well, so I feel good about it.
Fade Bruce Chen in Day games, he has a 8.74 ERA in 8 games.
Mariners -105 3.15 / 3
I like the Reds with Cueto on the mound vs. a woefully depleted Rockies team. As NastyNate has pointed out, the games here are very rarely decided by one run. Might as well go with the better team with the huge pitching advantage. Yes, the Reds can hit lefties. Especially very shitty ones like Friedrich (8.23 home ERA).
Reds -RL -105 3.15 / 3
Gonna do a parlay to hedge all these RL's, and adding the Nats vs. Wolf 7 the Brewers Rookie league quality bullpen.
4 teamer: Yankees -184 / Rangers -191 / Reds -148 / Nationals -127 1 / 6.0432