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[Systems & Strategies] Topic: Leprechaun's 2011 MLB System |
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Leprechaun |
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Prospect
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Posts: 323
Location: United States |
#101 Posted: 8/14/2011 12:35:14 PM Sunday, August 14 MLB Series System Picks
1. Atl (-155) to win 0.5 units
2. Oak (+115) risk 0.5 units
***Results from August 13***
1. CHW (-150) to win 1.5 units......................win 1.5 units
2. Yanks (-150) to win 1 unit.......................win 1 unit
3. Oak (+105) risk 1 unit.............................lose 1 unit
4a. Phi (-180) to win 0.5 units....................win 0.5 units
4b. Phi RL (+115) risk 1 unit......................win 1.15 units
5. SF (-145) to win 1.3 units......................win 1.3 units
6. Special parlay- Atl RL (+120)/Mil RL (+125)........lose 0.5 units
Total for Aug. 12: 4-2, +3.95 units
Overall SU System Record: 128-110, +14.13 units
***Notes***
Great day and the system hits a new all time high. Couple plays
today might push us ahead a little further still. No matter what, we
finish the week WAY up and ahead of where we were two weeks ago. Very
nice.
Good luck,
Leprechaun |
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Leprechaun |
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#102 Posted: 8/15/2011 12:49:19 PM Monday, August 15 MLB Series System Picks
1. Det (-145) to win 0.5 units
2. Yanks (-150) to win 1 unit
3a. Oak (-165) to win 0.5 units
3b. Oak RL (+130) risk 0.75 units
4. Mil (-155) to win 1.5 units
5. Fla (+135) risk 0.75 units
***Results from August 14***
1. Atl (-155) to win 0.5 units............................lose 0.78 units
2. Oak (+115) risk 0.5 units..............................lose 0.5 units
Total for Aug. 14: 0-2, -1.28 units
Overall SU System Record: 128-112, +12.85 units
***Notes***
An up and down week ends with 2 one point losses. Still, we finished
+8.35 units for the week, getting back all of last weeks losses. This
week, let's move the train forward. A good start today could push us
towards the twenty unit mark.
Good luck,
Leprechaun |
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Leprechaun |
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#103 Posted: 8/16/2011 10:46:11 AM Tuesday, August 16 MLB Series System Picks
1. Det RL (-130) to win 0.75 units
2. Oak (-140) to win 1 unit
3. Wash (+125) risk 0.5 units
4. Fla (+150) risk 0.75 units
***Results from August 15***
1. Det (-145) to win 0.5 units.................lose 0.73 units
2. Yanks (-150) to win 1 unit...............win 1 unit
3a. Oak (-165) to win 0.5 units............lose 0.83 units
3b. Oak RL (+130) risk 0.75 units..........lose 0.75 units
4. Mil (-155) to win 1.5 units................win 1.5 units
5. Fla (+135) risk 0.75 units...............lose 0.75 units
Total for Aug. 15: 2-3, -0.56 units
Overall SU System Record: 130-115, +12.29 units
***Notes***
In about a 10 minutes span, we went from a great night to a losing
night. Florida blew their lead in the bottom of the 9th and Oakland
gave up 4 runs in the 7th. Both these disasters happened
simultaneously. Back at it today.
Good luck,
Leprechaun |
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Leprechaun |
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#104 Posted: 8/17/2011 10:42:25 AM Wednesday, August 17 MLB Series System Picks
1. Phi RL (-120) to win 1 unit
***Results from August 16***
1. Det RL (-130) to win 0.75 units............win 0.75 units
2. Oak (-140) to win 1 unit.....................win 1 unit
3. Wash (+125) risk 0.5 units..................win 0.63 units
4. Fla (+150) risk 0.75 units....................win 1.13 units
Total for Aug. 16: 4-0, +3.51 units
Overall SU System Record: 130-115, +15.80 units
***Notes***
Sweeeeeeeeep! Nice to see it, especially when you spot a couple good
value dogs in the mix. Just one play today. Action will be light
until Friday. I could use the break...been an unbelievably hectic 10
days.
Good luck,
Leprechaun |
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Leprechaun |
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#105 Posted: 8/18/2011 10:19:01 AM Thursday, August 18 MLB Series System Picks
1. Bos RL (-120) to win 0.75 units
2. Yanks RL (-125) to win 0.5 units
3. Fla (+125) risk 0.75 units
***Results from August 17***
1. Phi RL (-120) to win 1 unit.........................win 1 unit
Total for Aug. 17: 1-0, +1.00 units
Overall SU System Record: 131-115, +16.80 units
***Notes***
Picked up another unit. Good times. As we get deeper into August,
the lines on the favs (even on the road) are getting out of hand. This
doesn't stop us from playing them, but it does force us to play a lot
more runlines and back off on units. Still, we try to pick spots with
good value...but there will be fewer and fewer opportunities.
Good luck,
Leprechaun |
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Leprechaun |
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#106 Posted: 8/19/2011 10:31:48 AM Friday, August 19 MLB Series System Picks
1. TB (+100) risk 0.5 units
2. Bos (-125) to win 0.75 units
3. SF (-145) to win 1.2 units
4. Fla (+120) risk 0.75 units
***Results from August 18***
1. Bos RL (-120) to win 0.75 units...............lose 0.9 units
2. Yanks RL (-125) to win 0.5 units................win 0.5 units
3. Fla (+125) risk 0.75 units.........................lose 0.75 units
Total for Aug. 18: 1-2, -1.15 units
Overall SU System Record: 132-117, +15.65 units
***Notes***
Damn...got burned on the Red Sox who won by just 1. With a low line
we take another stab at them today. Again, we don't see much on the
slate as we try to navigate a very tough minefield as we approach the
end of August. This system will likely run for 1 or 2 more weeks.
Hopefully we can get to +25 units on the year...not life altering, but
respectable. Gonna have to go an inch at a time.
Good luck,
Leprechaun |
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dj_destroyer |
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#107 Posted: 8/19/2011 5:15:46 PM |
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dj_destroyer |
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#108 Posted: 8/19/2011 5:17:39 PM |
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Leprechaun |
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#109 Posted: 8/20/2011 11:33:08 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by dj_destroyer:
+25 units is quite a lot and may cause you to make some unruly plays... +20 would be very respectable and definitely more attainable. GL either way.
Point taken DJ. I didn't intend to make 25 units a goal...just stating it would be great to get there with a little luck. I won't be striving to make that happen. I'm disciplined enough to stay within the confines of the system, but I probably shouldn't have made the comment in the first place. Where we end up is where we end up. Thanks for stopping in the thread.
Leprechaun
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Leprechaun |
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#110 Posted: 8/20/2011 11:46:33 AM Saturday, August 20 MLB Series System Picks
1. Angels (-140) to win 0.5 units
2a. SF (-165) to win 1 unit
2b. SF RL (-110) to win 0.75 units
***Results from August 19***
1. TB (+100) risk 0.5 units......................win 0.5 units
2. Bos (-125) to win 0.75 units................win 0.75 units
3. SF (-145) to win 1.2 units....................lose 1.74 units
4. Fla (+120) risk 0.75 units....................lose 0.75 units
Total for Aug. 19: 2-2, -1.24 units
Overall SU System Record: 134-119, +14.41 units
***Notes***
Lost the one that mattered. Giants didn't even show up. No real
chance of gaining much this week now. We'll focus on staying in the
black for the week, but we'll need an SF win to assure it. Let's go Giants!
Good luck,
Leprechaun |
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Leprechaun |
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#111 Posted: 8/21/2011 11:57:02 AM Sunday, August 21 MLB Series System Picks
1. Cards (-130) to win 0.75 units
2. SF (-120) to win 1 unit
3. Special parlay SF RL (+135)/Cards RL (+130): 0.5 units to win 2.2 units
***Notes***
SF screwing us this week...it's always somebody. Short on time...will total everything tomorrow.
Good luck,
Leprechaun |
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Leprechaun |
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#112 Posted: 8/22/2011 10:35:33 AM Monday, August 22 MLB Series System Picks
1. Cle (-160) to win 0.5 units
2. Min (-135) to win 1.2 units
3. Atl (-120) to win 0.5 units
4. Phi RL (-110) to win 0.5 units
***Results from August 21***
1. Cards (-130) to win 0.75 units.......................................win 0.75 units
2. SF (-120) to win 1 unit................................................win 1 unit
3. Special parlay SF RL (+135)/Cards RL (+130).................win 2.2 units
***Results from August 20***
1. Angels (-140) to win 0.5 units.......................win 0.5 units
2a. SF (-165) to win 1 unit...........................lose 1.65 units
2b. SF RL (-110) to win 0.75 units................lose 0.83 units
Total for Aug. 21: 3-0, +3.95 units
Total for Aug. 20: 1-1, -1.98 units
Overall SU System Record: 138-120, +16.38 units
***Notes***
SF finally comes through, even covering the RL in dramatic fashion.
Because of that, we hit our parlay which actually gave us a nice rebound
on Sunday, even though we still lost a little on the SF series. We
ended in the black and gained +3.53 units last week. There will
probably be a lot fewer plays over the next 2 weeks due to lines getting
out of control. The books are even shifting the RL's now and it will
be tough to get value on favs of -185 or higher. We'll continue to pick
our spots and play most games between 0.5 and 1 unit.
Good luck,
Leprechaun |
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Leprechaun |
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#113 Posted: 8/23/2011 10:20:51 AM Tuesday, August 23 MLB Series System Picks
1. Yanks RL (+100) to win 0.75 units
2a. Tor (-185) to win 0.5 units
2b. Tor (+115) risk 0.5 units
3. Min (-140) to win 1.5 units
4. Cin (-140) to win 1 unit
5. Cards (+110) risk 0.5 units
***Results from August 22***
1. Cle (-160) to win 0.5 units............................lose 0.8 units
2. Min (-135) to win 1.2 units.........................lose 1.62 units
3. Atl (-120) to win 0.5 units........................win 0.5 units
4. Phi RL (-110) to win 0.5 units....................win 0.5 units
Total for Aug. 22: 2-2, -1.42 units
Overall SU System Record: 138-120, +14.96 units
***Notes***
Lost the one that mattered once again. The correction for all the
favs hitting last month is coming on strong. Dogs are on fire the past
week. Our unit management has been great for weathering this storm so
far. Today is tough...there are a surprising number of plays that fit
into the system. We get two good value plays on Min and Cin with
reasonable lines. Boston also has great value today, but they just
missed being a play. Our other plays are small. Today will probably
make or break this week. Hopefully we'll pick up a couple units, but
with 4 plays on favorites, it's a little scary. If we get the Twins, we
should be fine.
Good luck,
Leprechaun |
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Leprechaun |
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#114 Posted: 8/24/2011 10:30:23 AM Wednesday, August 24 MLB Series System Picks
1. Min (-125) to win 1.3 units
2. Yanks RL (-130) to win 0.75 units
3. Tor RL (+105) to win 1.2 units
4. Cards (-145) to win 0.75 units
***Results from August 23***
1. Yanks RL (+100) to win 0.75 units.....................lose 0.75 units
2a. Tor (-185) to win 0.5 units.........................lose 0.93 units
2b. Tor (+115) risk 0.5 units..........................lose 0.5 units
3. Min (-140) to win 1.5 units.....................lose 2.1 units
4. Cin (-140) to win 1 unit.........................win 1 unit
5. Cards (+110) risk 0.5 units......................lose 0.5 units
Total for Aug. 23: 1-4, -3.78 units
Overall SU System Record: 139-124, +11.18 units
***Notes***
Hated the plays yesterday...stated outright that dogs were hitting,
but still followed the system and got crushed. That's the hard part
about systems...they can go against your instincts sometimes...but
usually it pays off in the long run. Looking back, not sure I'd change
anything. System was pretty strong on Minnesota winning one of the
first two games in the series. I didn't think risking 2 units was too
much, but with everything else missing, it really hurt us. That series
has cost us 3.5 of the 5 units we are down this week. Gotta come back
at it today, but ending the week in the black will be tough now.
Playing the system straight today again...another tough one with the
Yanks and Tor RLs. Committed to those series now, even though we'll be
taking a loss on both. Let's get a winning day and turn the week
around.
Good luck,
Leprechaun |
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Leprechaun |
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#115 Posted: 8/25/2011 9:45:22 AM 
Got roughed up pretty bad this week so far. 1-8 the last two days. Tight on time today...totals and analysis coming tomorrow.
There are no plays for Thursday. No doubt the Yanks and Twins will both win big today
Leprechaun
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#116 Posted: 8/26/2011 10:36:04 AM Friday, August 26 MLB Series System Picks
1. Yanks (-165) to win 1 unit
2. Bos (-150) to win 1 unit
3. CHW (-130) to win 1.5 units
4. Atl (-145) to win 1 unit
5. Phi RL (-105) to win 0.5 units
6. Cin (-145) to win 0.75 units
7. Dodgers (-130) to win 0.5 units
8. Mil RL (+115) risk 0.5 units
***Results from August 24***
1. Min (-125) to win 1.3 units.....................lose 1.63 units
2. Yanks RL (-130) to win 0.75 units.............lose 0.98 units
3. Tor RL (+105) to win 1.2 units................lose 1.2 units
4. Cards (-145) to win 0.75 units.................lose 1.09 units
Total for Aug. 24: 0-4, -4.9 units
Overall SU System Record: 139-124, +6.28 units
***Notes***
That's basically it for any hope of this system doing well. Got
burned for 10 units in just 3 days. Losing 5 units on the Minny series
seems reasonable really. I think that was the first series since the
first week of the system that we didn't get at least one win. It
happened at a time when we couldn't get a win to offset the problem in
any other series. The betting strategy goes in groups...that's what's
kept us doing well in bad times. If an entire group of series tanks at
the same time, this is the result. We'll continue through next week and
that will be it. FYI...I'm going on a camping trip for the weekend so
there will not be any plays posted on Saturday. Should be back early
Sunday. This is a tough end to what had really been a nice run since
that first disasterous week. From the first week of June until last
week we had picked up 35 units, with just 3 losing weeks. I saw the
writing on the wall for this week, and had the discipline to stay
small...but we need to identify when to skip series all together. Today
I'm playing it straight still...partly because of lack of time to
manually filter anything, and partly because the strength in these
series. Back on Sunday with a few more thoughts.
Good luck,
Leprechaun |
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Leprechaun |
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#117 Posted: 8/29/2011 11:13:50 AM Monday, August 29 MLB Series System Picks
1. Det (-170) to win 0.75 units
2. Fla (+110) risk 0.5 units (gm 1)
3. Ari (-150) to win 1 unit
4. Conditional play: Fla (+105) risk 0.5 units (ONLY if Fla lose gm1)
***Results from August 26***
1. Yanks (-165) to win 1 unit...................lose 1.65 units
2. Bos (-150) to win 1 unit.....................lose 1.5 units
3. CHW (-130) to win 1.5 units...................win 1.5 units
4. Atl (-145) to win 1 unit..........................lose 1.45 units
5. Phi RL (-105) to win 0.5 units..................lose 0.5 units
6. Cin (-145) to win 0.75 units........................win 0.75 units
7. Dodgers (-130) to win 0.5 units....................win 0.5 units
8. Mil RL (+115) risk 0.5 units.......................win 0.58 units
Total for Aug. 26: 4-4, -1.77 units
Overall SU System Record: 143-128, +4.51 units
***Notes***
I didn't get back on time on Sunday to post anything. Friday was
another losing day and we ended down a devastating -11.87 units for the
week. We didn't have one positive day last week of the 4 days plays
were posted. August is a minefield and we went about 25 days without
stepping on one. I guess that's not too bad big picture, but because
the system started off so slowly, no matter what happens this week, this
year was an absolute failure for this system. The most we'll end up is
probably about 10 units and even that will be a stretch. We'll play
one more week and then shut things down. Hoping to go out on a good
note.
Good luck,
Leprechaun |
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Leprechaun |
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#118 Posted: 8/30/2011 10:58:11 AM Tuesday, August 30 MLB Series System Picks
1a. Det (-175) to win 0.5 units
1b. Det RL (+120) risk 0.75 units
2. Atl RL (+115) risk 0.5 units
3. Fla (+105) risk 0.75 units
4. Mil (-150) to win 1 unit
5. SF (-145) to win 1 unit
***Results from August 29***
1. Det (-170) to win 0.75 units.......................lose 1.28 units
2. Fla (+110) risk 0.5 units (gm 1).................lose 0.5 units
3. Ari (-150) to win 1 unit........................win 1 unit
4. Fla (+105) risk 0.5 units (gm 2)..................lose 0.5 units
Total for Aug. 29: 1-3, -1.28 units
Overall SU System Record: 144-132, +3.23 units
***Notes***
Still going the wrong way but not giving up. Can we stay in the
black for the season? We're at the crossroads of comedy and tragedy.
Good luck,
Leprechaun |
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Leprechaun |
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#119 Posted: 8/31/2011 11:04:44 AM Wednesday, August 31 MLB Series System Picks
1. Mil (-130) to win 1.5 units
2. Tor (-120) to win 1 unit
3a. SF (-175) to win 0.5 units
3b. SF RL (+125) risk 0.75 units
4. Atl (-150) to win 1.4 units
***Results from August 30***
1a. Det (-175) to win 0.5 units...................win 0.5 units
1b. Det RL (+120) risk 0.75 units.................lose 0.75 units
2. Atl RL (+115) risk 0.5 units....................lose 0.5 units
3. Fla (+105) risk 0.75 units......................win 0.79 units
4. Mil (-150) to win 1 unit.....................lose 1.5 units
5. SF (-145) to win 1 unit.....................lose 1.45 units
Total for Aug. 30: 1-4, -2.91 units
Overall SU System Record: 145-136, +0.32 units
***Notes***
Going through the motions for another day or two. Just a note to remind myself to go back and add up what Baltimore and the Cubs have cost this system over the past 3 weeks.
Good luck,
Leprechaun |
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Leprechaun |
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#120 Posted: 9/1/2011 11:24:57 AM Thursday, Sept 1 MLB Series System Picks
1. Mil RL (+105) to win 1.5 units
***Results from August 31***
1. Mil (-130) to win 1.5 units.........................lose 1.95 units
2. Tor (-120) to win 1 unit........................win 1 unit
3a. SF (-175) to win 0.5 units.....................win 0.5 units
3b. SF RL (+125) risk 0.75 units..................win 0.94 units
4. Atl (-150) to win 1.4 units......................win 1.4 units
Total for Aug. 31: 3-1, +1.89 units
Overall SU System Record: 148-137, +1.89 units
***Notes***
Last week, Baltimore swept at Minnesota for the first time since
1993. This week, Milwaukee loses two in a row at home for the first
time this entire season. So nice to be on the losing end of those
beauties. Today will be the last day for this system, which ended up
being a big bust in the end. It was a good journey and I enjoyed a lot
of it. I'll be back over the weekend to post the final numbers.
Good luck,
Leprechaun |
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