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Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: Leprechaun's 2011 MLB System
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Leprechaun
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#101
Posted: 8/14/2011 12:35:14 PM

Sunday, August 14 MLB Series System Picks

1. Atl (-155) to win 0.5 units
2. Oak (+115) risk 0.5 units


***Results from August 13***

1. CHW (-150) to win 1.5 units......................win 1.5 units
2. Yanks (-150) to win 1 unit.......................win 1 unit
3. Oak (+105) risk 1 unit.............................lose 1 unit
4a. Phi (-180) to win 0.5 units....................win 0.5 units
4b. Phi RL (+115) risk 1 unit......................win 1.15 units
5. SF (-145) to win 1.3 units......................win 1.3 units
6. Special parlay- Atl RL (+120)/Mil RL (+125)........lose 0.5 units

Total for Aug. 12: 4-2, +3.95 units

Overall SU System Record: 128-110, +14.13 units


***Notes***

Great day and the system hits a new all time high.  Couple plays today might push us ahead a little further still.  No matter what, we finish the week WAY up and ahead of where we were two weeks ago.  Very nice.


Good luck,

Leprechaun

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#102
Posted: 8/15/2011 12:49:19 PM

Monday, August 15 MLB Series System Picks

1. Det (-145) to win 0.5 units
2. Yanks (-150) to win 1 unit
3a. Oak (-165) to win 0.5 units
3b. Oak RL (+130) risk 0.75 units
4. Mil (-155) to win 1.5 units
5. Fla (+135) risk 0.75 units


***Results from August 14***

1. Atl (-155) to win 0.5 units............................lose 0.78 units
2. Oak (+115) risk 0.5 units..............................lose 0.5 units

Total for Aug. 14: 0-2, -1.28 units

Overall SU System Record: 128-112, +12.85 units


***Notes***

An up and down week ends with 2 one point losses.  Still, we finished +8.35 units for the week, getting back all of last weeks losses.  This week, let's move the train forward.  A good start today could push us towards the twenty unit mark.


Good luck,

Leprechaun

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#103
Posted: 8/16/2011 10:46:11 AM

Tuesday, August 16 MLB Series System Picks

1. Det RL (-130) to win 0.75 units
2. Oak (-140) to win 1 unit
3. Wash (+125) risk 0.5 units
4. Fla (+150) risk 0.75 units


***Results from August 15***

1. Det (-145) to win 0.5 units.................lose 0.73 units
2. Yanks (-150) to win 1 unit...............win 1 unit
3a. Oak (-165) to win 0.5 units............lose 0.83 units
3b. Oak RL (+130) risk 0.75 units..........lose 0.75 units
4. Mil (-155) to win 1.5 units................win 1.5 units
5. Fla (+135) risk 0.75 units...............lose 0.75 units

Total for Aug. 15: 2-3, -0.56 units

Overall SU System Record: 130-115, +12.29 units


***Notes***

In about a 10 minutes span, we went from a great night to a losing night.  Florida blew their lead in the bottom of the 9th and Oakland gave up 4 runs in the 7th.  Both these disasters happened simultaneously.  Back at it today.


Good luck,

Leprechaun

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#104
Posted: 8/17/2011 10:42:25 AM

Wednesday, August 17 MLB Series System Picks

1. Phi RL (-120) to win 1 unit


***Results from August 16***

1. Det RL (-130) to win 0.75 units............win 0.75 units
2. Oak (-140) to win 1 unit.....................win 1 unit
3. Wash (+125) risk 0.5 units..................win 0.63 units
4. Fla (+150) risk 0.75 units....................win 1.13 units

Total for Aug. 16: 4-0, +3.51 units

Overall SU System Record: 130-115, +15.80 units


***Notes***

Sweeeeeeeeep!  Nice to see it, especially when you spot a couple good value dogs in the mix.  Just one play today.  Action will be light until Friday.  I could use the break...been an unbelievably hectic 10 days.


Good luck,

Leprechaun

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#105
Posted: 8/18/2011 10:19:01 AM

Thursday, August 18 MLB Series System Picks

1. Bos RL (-120) to win 0.75 units
2. Yanks RL (-125) to win 0.5 units
3. Fla (+125) risk 0.75 units


***Results from August 17***

1. Phi RL (-120) to win 1 unit.........................win 1 unit

Total for Aug. 17: 1-0, +1.00 units

Overall SU System Record: 131-115, +16.80 units


***Notes***

Picked up another unit.  Good times.  As we get deeper into August, the lines on the favs (even on the road) are getting out of hand.  This doesn't stop us from playing them, but it does force us to play a lot more runlines and back off on units.  Still, we try to pick spots with good value...but there will be fewer and fewer opportunities.


Good luck,

Leprechaun

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#106
Posted: 8/19/2011 10:31:48 AM

Friday, August 19 MLB Series System Picks

1. TB (+100) risk 0.5 units
2. Bos (-125) to win 0.75 units
3. SF (-145) to win 1.2 units
4. Fla (+120) risk 0.75 units


***Results from August 18***

1. Bos RL (-120) to win 0.75 units...............lose 0.9 units
2. Yanks RL (-125) to win 0.5 units................win 0.5 units
3. Fla (+125) risk 0.75 units.........................lose 0.75 units

Total for Aug. 18: 1-2, -1.15 units

Overall SU System Record: 132-117, +15.65 units


***Notes***

Damn...got burned on the Red Sox who won by just 1.  With a low line we take another stab at them today.  Again, we don't see much on the slate as we try to navigate a very tough minefield as we approach the end of August.  This system will likely run for 1 or 2 more weeks.  Hopefully we can get to +25 units on the year...not life altering, but respectable.  Gonna have to go an inch at a time.


Good luck,

Leprechaun

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#107
Posted: 8/19/2011 5:15:46 PM
+25 units is quite a lot and may cause you to make some unruly plays... +20 would be very respectable and definitely more attainable. GL either way.
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#108
Posted: 8/19/2011 5:17:39 PM
+25 units is quite a lot and may cause you to make some unruly plays... +20 would be very respectable and definitely more attainable. GL either way.
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#109
Posted: 8/20/2011 11:33:08 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by dj_destroyer:

+25 units is quite a lot and may cause you to make some unruly plays... +20 would be very respectable and definitely more attainable. GL either way.


Point taken DJ.  I didn't intend to make 25 units a goal...just stating it would be great to get there with a little luck.  I won't be striving to make that happen.  I'm disciplined enough to stay within the confines of the system, but I probably shouldn't have made the comment in the first place.  Where we end up is where we end up.  Thanks for stopping in the thread.

Leprechaun
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#110
Posted: 8/20/2011 11:46:33 AM

Saturday, August 20 MLB Series System Picks

1. Angels (-140) to win 0.5 units
2a. SF (-165) to win 1 unit
2b. SF RL (-110) to win 0.75 units


***Results from August 19***

1. TB (+100) risk 0.5 units......................win 0.5 units
2. Bos (-125) to win 0.75 units................win 0.75 units
3. SF (-145) to win 1.2 units....................lose 1.74 units
4. Fla (+120) risk 0.75 units....................lose 0.75 units

Total for Aug. 19: 2-2, -1.24 units

Overall SU System Record: 134-119, +14.41 units


***Notes***

Lost the one that mattered.  Giants didn't even show up.  No real chance of gaining much this week now.  We'll focus on staying in the black for the week, but we'll need an SF win to assure it.  Let's go Giants!


Good luck,

Leprechaun

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#111
Posted: 8/21/2011 11:57:02 AM

Sunday, August 21 MLB Series System Picks

1. Cards (-130) to win 0.75 units
2. SF (-120) to win 1 unit
3. Special parlay SF RL (+135)/Cards RL (+130): 0.5 units to win 2.2 units


***Notes***

SF screwing us this week...it's always somebody.  Short on time...will total everything tomorrow.


Good luck,

Leprechaun

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#112
Posted: 8/22/2011 10:35:33 AM

Monday, August 22 MLB Series System Picks

1. Cle (-160) to win 0.5 units
2. Min (-135) to win 1.2 units
3. Atl (-120) to win 0.5 units
4. Phi RL (-110) to win 0.5 units


***Results from August 21***

1. Cards (-130) to win 0.75 units.......................................win 0.75 units
2. SF (-120) to win 1 unit................................................win 1 unit
3. Special parlay SF RL (+135)/Cards RL (+130).................win 2.2 units

***Results from August 20***

1. Angels (-140) to win 0.5 units.......................win 0.5 units
2a. SF (-165) to win 1 unit...........................lose 1.65 units
2b. SF RL (-110) to win 0.75 units................lose 0.83 units

Total for Aug. 21: 3-0, +3.95 units

Total for Aug. 20: 1-1, -1.98 units

Overall SU System Record: 138-120, +16.38 units




***Notes***

SF finally comes through, even covering the RL in dramatic fashion.  Because of that, we hit our parlay which actually gave us a nice rebound on Sunday, even though we still lost a little on the SF series.  We ended in the black and gained +3.53 units last week.  There will probably be a lot fewer plays over the next 2 weeks due to lines getting out of control.  The books are even shifting the RL's now and it will be tough to get value on favs of -185 or higher.  We'll continue to pick our spots and play most games between 0.5 and 1 unit.


Good luck,

Leprechaun

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#113
Posted: 8/23/2011 10:20:51 AM

Tuesday, August 23 MLB Series System Picks

1. Yanks RL (+100) to win 0.75 units
2a. Tor (-185) to win 0.5 units
2b. Tor (+115) risk 0.5 units
3. Min (-140) to win 1.5 units
4. Cin (-140) to win 1 unit
5. Cards (+110) risk 0.5 units


***Results from August 22***

1. Cle (-160) to win 0.5 units............................lose 0.8 units
2. Min (-135) to win 1.2 units.........................lose 1.62 units
3. Atl (-120) to win 0.5 units........................win 0.5 units
4. Phi RL (-110) to win 0.5 units....................win 0.5 units

Total for Aug. 22: 2-2, -1.42 units

Overall SU System Record: 138-120, +14.96 units


***Notes***

Lost the one that mattered once again.  The correction for all the favs hitting last month is coming on strong.  Dogs are on fire the past week.  Our unit management has been great for weathering this storm so far.  Today is tough...there are a surprising number of plays that fit into the system.  We get two good value plays on Min and Cin with reasonable lines.  Boston also has great value today, but they just missed being a play.  Our other plays are small.  Today will probably make or break this week.  Hopefully we'll pick up a couple units, but with 4 plays on favorites, it's a little scary.  If we get the Twins, we should be fine.


Good luck,

Leprechaun

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#114
Posted: 8/24/2011 10:30:23 AM

Wednesday, August 24 MLB Series System Picks

1. Min (-125) to win 1.3 units
2. Yanks RL (-130) to win 0.75 units
3. Tor RL (+105) to win 1.2 units
4. Cards (-145) to win 0.75 units


***Results from August 23***

1. Yanks RL (+100) to win 0.75 units.....................lose 0.75 units
2a. Tor (-185) to win 0.5 units.........................lose 0.93 units
2b. Tor (+115) risk 0.5 units..........................lose 0.5 units
3. Min (-140) to win 1.5 units.....................lose 2.1 units
4. Cin (-140) to win 1 unit.........................win 1 unit
5. Cards (+110) risk 0.5 units......................lose 0.5 units

Total for Aug. 23: 1-4, -3.78 units

Overall SU System Record: 139-124, +11.18 units


***Notes***

Hated the plays yesterday...stated outright that dogs were hitting, but still followed the system and got crushed.  That's the hard part about systems...they can go against your instincts sometimes...but usually it pays off in the long run.  Looking back, not sure I'd change anything.  System was pretty strong on Minnesota winning one of the first two games in the series.  I didn't think risking 2 units was too much, but with everything else missing, it really hurt us.  That series has cost us 3.5 of the 5 units we are down this week.  Gotta come back at it today, but ending the week in the black will be tough now.  Playing the system straight today again...another tough one with the Yanks and Tor RLs.  Committed to those series now, even though we'll be taking a loss on both.  Let's get a winning day and turn the week around.


Good luck,

Leprechaun

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#115
Posted: 8/25/2011 9:45:22 AM


Got roughed up pretty bad this week so far.  1-8 the last two days.  Tight on time today...totals and analysis coming tomorrow.

There are no plays for Thursday.  No doubt the Yanks and Twins will both win big today


Leprechaun
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#116
Posted: 8/26/2011 10:36:04 AM

Friday, August 26 MLB Series System Picks

1. Yanks (-165) to win 1 unit
2. Bos (-150) to win 1 unit
3. CHW (-130) to win 1.5 units
4. Atl (-145) to win 1 unit
5. Phi RL (-105) to win 0.5 units
6. Cin (-145) to win 0.75 units
7. Dodgers (-130) to win 0.5 units
8. Mil RL (+115) risk 0.5 units


***Results from August 24***

1. Min (-125) to win 1.3 units.....................lose 1.63 units
2. Yanks RL (-130) to win 0.75 units.............lose 0.98 units
3. Tor RL (+105) to win 1.2 units................lose 1.2 units
4. Cards (-145) to win 0.75 units.................lose 1.09 units

Total for Aug. 24: 0-4, -4.9 units

Overall SU System Record: 139-124, +6.28 units


***Notes***

That's basically it for any hope of this system doing well.  Got burned for 10 units in just 3 days.  Losing 5 units on the Minny series seems reasonable really.  I think that was the first series since the first week of the system that we didn't get at least one win.  It happened at a time when we couldn't get a win to offset the problem in any other series.  The betting strategy goes in groups...that's what's kept us doing well in bad times.  If an entire group of series tanks at the same time, this is the result.  We'll continue through next week and that will be it.  FYI...I'm going on a camping trip for the weekend so there will not be any plays posted on Saturday.  Should be back early Sunday.  This is a tough end to what had really been a nice run since that first disasterous week.  From the first week of June until last week we had picked up 35 units, with just 3 losing weeks.  I saw the writing on the wall for this week, and had the discipline to stay small...but we need to identify when to skip series all together.  Today I'm playing it straight still...partly because of lack of time to manually filter anything, and partly because the strength in these series.  Back on Sunday with a few more thoughts.


Good luck,

Leprechaun

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#117
Posted: 8/29/2011 11:13:50 AM

Monday, August 29 MLB Series System Picks

1. Det (-170) to win 0.75 units
2. Fla (+110) risk 0.5 units (gm 1)
3. Ari (-150) to win 1 unit
4. Conditional play: Fla (+105) risk 0.5 units (ONLY if Fla lose gm1)


***Results from August 26***

1. Yanks (-165) to win 1 unit...................lose 1.65 units
2. Bos (-150) to win 1 unit.....................lose 1.5 units
3. CHW (-130) to win 1.5 units...................win 1.5 units
4. Atl (-145) to win 1 unit..........................lose 1.45 units
5. Phi RL (-105) to win 0.5 units..................lose 0.5 units
6. Cin (-145) to win 0.75 units........................win 0.75 units
7. Dodgers (-130) to win 0.5 units....................win 0.5 units
8. Mil RL (+115) risk 0.5 units.......................win 0.58 units

Total for Aug. 26: 4-4, -1.77 units

Overall SU System Record: 143-128, +4.51 units


***Notes***

I didn't get back on time on Sunday to post anything.  Friday was another losing day and we ended down a devastating -11.87 units for the week.  We didn't have one positive day last week of the 4 days plays were posted.  August is a minefield and we went about 25 days without stepping on one.  I guess that's not too bad big picture, but because the system started off so slowly, no matter what happens this week, this year was an absolute failure for this system.  The most we'll end up is probably about 10 units and even that will be a stretch.  We'll play one more week and then shut things down.  Hoping to go out on a good note.


Good luck,

Leprechaun

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#118
Posted: 8/30/2011 10:58:11 AM

Tuesday, August 30 MLB Series System Picks

1a. Det (-175) to win 0.5 units
1b. Det RL (+120) risk 0.75 units
2. Atl RL (+115) risk 0.5 units
3. Fla (+105) risk 0.75 units
4. Mil (-150) to win 1 unit
5. SF (-145) to win 1 unit


***Results from August 29***

1. Det (-170) to win 0.75 units.......................lose 1.28 units
2. Fla (+110) risk 0.5 units (gm 1).................lose 0.5 units
3. Ari (-150) to win 1 unit........................win 1 unit
4. Fla (+105) risk 0.5 units (gm 2)..................lose 0.5 units

Total for Aug. 29: 1-3, -1.28 units

Overall SU System Record: 144-132, +3.23 units


***Notes***

Still going the wrong way but not giving up.  Can we stay in the black for the season?  We're at the crossroads of comedy and tragedy.


Good luck,

Leprechaun

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#119
Posted: 8/31/2011 11:04:44 AM

Wednesday, August 31 MLB Series System Picks

1. Mil (-130) to win 1.5 units
2. Tor (-120) to win 1 unit
3a. SF (-175) to win 0.5 units
3b. SF RL (+125) risk 0.75 units
4. Atl (-150) to win 1.4 units


***Results from August 30***

1a. Det (-175) to win 0.5 units...................win 0.5 units
1b. Det RL (+120) risk 0.75 units.................lose 0.75 units
2. Atl RL (+115) risk 0.5 units....................lose 0.5 units
3. Fla (+105) risk 0.75 units......................win 0.79 units
4. Mil (-150) to win 1 unit.....................lose 1.5 units
5. SF (-145) to win 1 unit.....................lose 1.45 units

Total for Aug. 30: 1-4, -2.91 units

Overall SU System Record: 145-136, +0.32 units


***Notes***

Going through the motions for another day or two.  Just a note to remind myself to go back and add up what Baltimore and the Cubs have cost this system over the past 3 weeks.


Good luck,

Leprechaun

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#120
Posted: 9/1/2011 11:24:57 AM

Thursday, Sept 1 MLB Series System Picks

1. Mil RL (+105) to win 1.5 units


***Results from August 31***

1. Mil (-130) to win 1.5 units.........................lose 1.95 units
2. Tor (-120) to win 1 unit........................win 1 unit
3a. SF (-175) to win 0.5 units.....................win 0.5 units
3b. SF RL (+125) risk 0.75 units..................win 0.94 units
4. Atl (-150) to win 1.4 units......................win 1.4 units

Total for Aug. 31: 3-1, +1.89 units

Overall SU System Record: 148-137, +1.89 units


***Notes***

Last week, Baltimore swept at Minnesota for the first time since 1993.  This week, Milwaukee loses two in a row at home for the first time this entire season.  So nice to be on the losing end of those beauties.  Today will be the last day for this system, which ended up being a big bust in the end.  It was a good journey and I enjoyed a lot of it.  I'll be back over the weekend to post the final numbers.


Good luck,

Leprechaun

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