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Author: [College Football] Topic: Largest early line moves....
bookieassassin send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: 5Dimes |
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#26
Posted: 9/20/2011 12:48:56 PM
no doubt we will soon see a thread....

Tulsa will cover !!....this is too easy !!!.....I guarantee it !!

as (I think Tyson said it)....when asked about a confident challenger...."they all are confident...until that 1st punch in the mouth"...then not so much..
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#27
Posted: 9/20/2011 12:59:00 PM
how was Fl ever at 11; every book I have seen including wynn had it at 17 or higher; that is the normal line for this game; every year I play it; FL defense is much better than people think; all the books start out at about the same line; I was just wondering where you got that initial line; I always get it from a couple of different places and they are about the same but that is a huge difference not that anyone could have played it Thanks
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#28
Posted: 9/20/2011 1:37:21 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Johnnynumbers:

Georgia--I hate road chalk, especially in the SEC, but Ole Miss is bad, and Georgia has lost to what looks like 2 excellent teams.  Richt REALLY needs some big wins to save his job, so I don't see him calling off the Dawgs in this one....POW for me so far.

Love this game as well.  There is also a lot going on behind the scenes at Ole Miss right now that really makes me like this game even more.  A group of concerned alumni took out full page ads in all of the major newspapers in MS and TN calling for the President, AD and Nutt to be fired.  I have heard they are actually considering firing Nutt mid-season, but don't have a good interim head coach candidate.  The AD even went so far as to attend the press conference this week and spoke before Nutt and said he was disappointed with the program and promised change.  This all may not come to fruition, but it is a HUGE distraction for the coaches and players.


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#29
Posted: 9/20/2011 1:38:59 PM
Also, love Florida this weekend. I have already locked it in at 19.  I live in Lexington and everyone here has given up on this team and have gotten ready for basketball.  Florida traditionally DESTROYS UK, even last year when they were down, I think they hung 60 on them.  I look for this one to get ugly quick.

Go Gators!
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#30
Posted: 9/20/2011 1:56:13 PM
got me 33.....(no I didn't go to each and personally verify ...from Vegas Insider....line movement at the Wynn..>>

09/18     6:02pm     FLA-1100     KEN+800     FLA-11 -110     KEN+11 -110     43 -110     43 -110                       
09/18     6:12pm     FLA-1100     KEN+800     FLA-13 -110     KEN+13 -110     43 -110     43 -110                       
09/18     6:59pm     FLA-1100     KEN+800     FLA-13.5 -110     KEN+13.5 -110     43 -110     43 -110                       
09/18     7:00pm     FLA-1100     KEN+800     FLA-14 -110     KEN+14 -110     43 -110     43 -110                       
09/18     7:07pm     FLA-1100     KEN+800     FLA-16 -110     KEN+16 -110     43 -110     43 -110                       
09/19     12:05am     FLA-1100     KEN+800     FLA-17 -110     KEN+17 -110     43 -110     43 -110                       
09/19     11:13am     FLA-1100     KEN+800     FLA-17.5 -110     KEN+17.5 -110     43 -110     43 -110                       
09/19     3:18pm     FLA-1100     KEN+800     FLA-19 -110     KEN+19 -110     43 -110     43 -110                       
 
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#31
Posted: 9/20/2011 2:43:22 PM
FSU/Clemson down to a pk .....Must be lots of Tiger money coming in.....Probably make me take FSU.....
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#32
Posted: 9/20/2011 3:29:59 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by bookieassassin:

Boise now -32'.......

Vegas > "I dare you to bet Boise here"......> numbers say line should be 23-24 ish




if anything, i'd say the books are daring you to take Tulsa...
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#33
Posted: 9/20/2011 4:31:52 PM
[Quote: Originally Posted by bookieassassin] anybody fess up to being on the other side ...of more than a couple?......

  
[/Quote]

Plenty of those  Early Vegas Lines are only around for a select amount of bettors....

I try not to put much stock into Why Lines move .....
"That's what they do"....


I Know every capper has trends and their own way of Betting CFB.....



THanks alot for putting this thread together ...

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#34
Posted: 9/20/2011 5:03:41 PM

Tulsa should be the right play

Open line 27 and Current 32.5

90% Boise and 10% Tulsa

Florida should be the right play

Open line 11 and Current 19.5

98% Fl and 2% KY

The different between this two game is the betting trend. When the trend is to high , you have more chance of bringing home the cash. Boise betting trend is only 90%, and is not high enough.

 

 

 

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#35
Posted: 9/20/2011 5:40:27 PM
Bookie all of those games have to be played at the Wynn right; I stayed there once. It is very overrated. I wasn't trying to say anything wrong. I was just wondering why Wynn would come out with something that low. It's just odd. I have seen where sharps have their own lines and if they say 11 would bet heavily on Florida. I think FL is underrated right now and Kentucky is awful. Thanks for the info.
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#36
Posted: 9/20/2011 6:09:33 PM
 nice
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#37
Posted: 9/20/2011 6:20:49 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by DoubleUp4Life:

Originally Posted by bookieassassin] anybody fess up to being on the other side ...of more than a couple?......

  
[/Quote]

Plenty of those  Early Vegas Lines are only around for a select amount of bettors....

I try not to put much stock into Why Lines move .....
"That's what they do"....


I Know every capper has trends and their own way of Betting CFB.....



THanks alot for putting this thread together ...


naw I don't worry about line movement much....just to help predict when a number will be where I want it
  *just posted as a topic of interest kinda

* like it or not....the earliest movement is mainly due to professional wagering ....there are guys that are pretty damn good at this.....Vegas uses their early "opinion"....to help tighten things up...
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#38
Posted: 9/21/2011 11:45:21 AM
bookie I am on Miami Fl this week; what do you see in Kstate that makes you believe they can play with Miami on the road; Kstate has played less than anyone. They can't pass the ball AT ALL; they should have lost to Eastern Kentucky at home winning in the 4th by 3; beat Kent State; but they rely on running game and Miami is starting to get back to where they used to be esp with talent. They will shutdown that running attack and after beating Ohio State and Harris back they should dominate Kstate. Kstate is nowhere close to where they were 10 years ago and have average talent at best. Miami will stack the box and make them pass which means turnovers. Eastern Kentucky gave them a run for their money at Kstate and now face a Miami team coming off a big win looking to get back into the national scene. What are you seeing??
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#39
Posted: 9/21/2011 2:55:33 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by vi3t4lif3:

Tulsa should be the right play

Open line 27 and Current 32.5

90% Boise and 10% Tulsa

Florida should be the right play

Open line 11 and Current 19.5

98% Fl and 2% KY

The different between this two game is the betting trend. When the trend is to high , you have more chance of bringing home the cash. Boise betting trend is only 90%, and is not high enough.

 

 




SO U BET WITH TRENDS and garbage like that ..when speaking about boise of course---well actually Boise is teh right bet even if the band wagon is full ----- Home Opener ---Tulsa with out best players ----- the correct bet here is --- BS 1H Over ---BS game spread and Over
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#40
Posted: 9/21/2011 2:57:44 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by vi3t4lif3:

Tulsa should be the right play

Open line 27 and Current 32.5

90% Boise and 10% Tulsa

Florida should be the right play

Open line 11 and Current 19.5

98% Fl and 2% KY

The different between this two game is the betting trend. When the trend is to high , you have more chance of bringing home the cash. Boise betting trend is only 90%, and is not high enough.

 

 

 

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#41
Posted: 9/21/2011 2:58:14 PM
BOISE ST - Recent ATS Trends
 Against the spreadOver/UnderStraight Up
 CurrentLast 3   Since 1992CurrentLast 3   Since 1992CurrentLast 3   Since 1992
DescriptionW-LW-LW-LO-UO-UO-UW-LW-LW-L
as a favorite of 31 or more points0-07-313-60-03-68-80-010-021-0
in all games2-020-899-531-113-1444-522-028-1140-32
against Conference USA opponents0-00-14-30-00-15-20-01-05-2
when playing on a Saturday1-011-369-391-07-623-291-015-0102-24
in games played on turf2-013-762-361-17-1228-372-020-195-16
in September games2-08-126-161-16-311-142-09-037-15
in non-conference games2-010-237-221-16-616-222-013-054-20
after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins0-013-768-340-010-1034-390-020-195-13
in all lined games2-020-899-531-113-1444-522-027-1129-26
as a favorite2-018-879-431-112-1337-422-025-1115-9
in home games0-07-549-230-05-619-230-013-079-6
in home lined games0-07-549-230-05-619-230-012-068-5
in a home game where the total is between 56.5 and 630-01-113-40-01-19-70-02-017-0

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#42
Posted: 9/21/2011 3:02:09 PM

shark_apreza, people bet on games from different angle, and for me line movement, betting trend, and ats etc.... and it works well for me shark_apreza. I prove it to you on Sat with my pick. I will post it before game start.

Everyone bet from a different angle.

    shark_apreza

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#43
Posted: 9/21/2011 3:22:54 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by vi3t4lif3:

shark_apreza, people bet on games from different angle, and for me line movement, betting trend, and ats etc.... and it works well for me shark_apreza. I prove it to you on Sat with my pick. I will post it before game start.

Everyone bet from a different angle.

    shark_apreza




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#44
Posted: 9/21/2011 3:36:50 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Ice4Blood:




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#45
Posted: 9/22/2011 12:28:08 PM
Texas Tech down to 17
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#46
Posted: 9/22/2011 1:51:10 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Handicapper33:

bookie I am on Miami Fl this week; what do you see in Kstate that makes you believe they can play with Miami on the road; Kstate has played less than anyone. They can't pass the ball AT ALL; they should have lost to Eastern Kentucky at home winning in the 4th by 3; beat Kent State; but they rely on running game and Miami is starting to get back to where they used to be esp with talent. They will shutdown that running attack and after beating Ohio State and Harris back they should dominate Kstate. Kstate is nowhere close to where they were 10 years ago and have average talent at best. Miami will stack the box and make them pass which means turnovers. Eastern Kentucky gave them a run for their money at Kstate and now face a Miami team coming off a big win looking to get back into the national scene. What are you seeing??


won't play K St.....just a bad spot (maybe) for a weak home favorite (8-14 ATS) coming off HUGE game...vs a solid road dog (9-3 ATS)....that is playing it's biggest game so far TY...
Canes do only have Bethune-Cookman wtf on deck....and KSU should have issues moving the ball...
but laying 2 TD's or so here seems risky to me....
UNDER....might be worthwhile
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#47
Posted: 9/25/2011 4:54:19 PM

Tulsa should be the right play

Open line 27 and Current 32.5

90% Boise and 10% Tulsa

Florida should be the right play

Open line 11 and Current 19.5

98% Fl and 2% KY

The different between this two game is the betting trend. When the trend is to high , you have more chance of bringing home the cash. Boise betting trend is only 90%, and is not high enough.

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