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Author: [College Football] Topic: Week 1 Line Guesses 2012----DEGEN Special
LonghornHoosier
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#51
Posted: 5/23/2012 2:26:25 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by Corley1011:

Longhorn - Remember in the bowl game where Wyoming had all kinds of trouble stopping Temple's run game and moving the ball against thw Owl's D... Texas is bigger, faster, and very aggressive on D... Mack needs to win big here... Texas 56-17

Corley - I seem to recall that deficiency with Wyoming...Texas has been down for a few years, but we are coming back...in my opinion, we, we have 3 RB's with the potential of Trent Richardson.  yes, I know, that is a lofty statement,  but I believe it is true.   If Harshin's scheme can kick in and Ash can just not F it up, I think Texas will surprise some people this year.

I have a rule not to bet on Texas..for the obvious homer issues...but, against Wyoming and Bob Davies New Mexico team in week 2, it may be a good bet.   I hope you guys will keep me grounded if I start drinking too much burndt orange Kool-Aid! 

 

 

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Corley1011
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#52
Posted: 5/23/2012 3:11:48 PM
I think Texas covers the first 3 weeks... They should build some momentum going into conference play
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#53
Posted: 5/24/2012 12:09:28 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Laroja:

UCF blows the garbage out of Akron.


every body will do that
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#54
Posted: 5/24/2012 12:11:11 PM
DBLUP

my brother---nice to see you back in business
---- looking forwrd for ur proyections and colorfull threads
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#55
Posted: 5/28/2012 11:32:08 PM
Don't forget UMass at UConn on Thursday.

I would think you see the Huskies somewhere around 2 touchdowns.
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LonghornHoosier
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#56
Posted: 5/29/2012 1:00:20 AM

Corley - I have done a prelim cap on the 1st five weeks (there are 5 Saturday's in September this year).

I agree that Texas will be improved. I concur that David Ash will do a better job managing the game. However, I think Texas will open -32 v. Wyoming at home. From my preliminary perspective, it's not a matter of how improved Texas will be, but the basis of the comp. Yes, the Cowboys were run over by a descent temple running game. But Christensen has 8 returning starters on D that have a chip on their shoulders. Brett Smith seems like a respectable QB and he has 7of his top 8 WR's returner. BS was MWC freshmen of the year last year... In addition, Wyoming beat Air Force 25-17 as a 16 point dog at AF. They also beat SD St, covered at Boise, and defeated their arch rival Col Stand covered at home against TCU.

My advice, that I will personally follow, unless something other information surfaces, is to pass on Texas in the first week (sparing a favorable spread like 24 or less), and wait until New Mexico in week 2 and at Ole Miss in week 3. In essence, I don't believe Wyoming is the patsy of say North Texas, or Akron, or New Mexico, or Buffalo in week one. They have continuity at the coaching spot, QB spot and a vow to improve a porous run D.

I think Texas wins big, but it will be too close to call to place a wager to cover -32 at home against an upstart Wyoming Team.

My prediction

Texas 38

Wyoming 10

I think the line will open around 30 and increase to 32.5 by game time.

Take a pass on Texas in week 1, watch them closely, and pounce in weeks 2 and 3 if it appears that the passing game is a legit threat and the D is as nasty as everyone says it will be,

My prelim week 1 (subject to revision)

LSU - 43 over N Texas

UCF - 28 over Akron

Oklahoma - 30 over UTEP

Take care...college football season can't get here soon enough.

 

 

 

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#57
Posted: 5/29/2012 1:54:24 AM
Longhorn - I haven't gotten to Wyoming yet, but looks like you have done a pretty thorough job on your boys in Week 1... More than likely, I'll follow your advice... Might even look at a teaser with your boys in it... I have a ways to go with my capping, but your write up gives me a pretty good head start... 

Your other lines look pretty spot on... 

LSU should roll... a matchup with Washington on deck, but don't see them looking ahead... Miles will probably let Mettenberger free in this one... LSU could easily score between 50-60, while not allowing more than 7

UCF should cover anything under 30... They do have a trip back up to Ohio the next week to play Ohio St, something to keep an eye on

No feeling on the Oklahoma/UTEP game at this point


Keep up the good work brother 
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#58
Posted: 5/29/2012 1:39:50 PM

thanks for the feedback - you are astute in that I am rock solid on LSU and UCF, but still evaluating OU v UTEP. The game is in El Paso.  It is a replacement game for OU for TCU joining the Big XII.   In addition, Price is on the hotset and has the spring and August camp to prep for OU.

But, UTEP has marginal talent.  OU get Whaley back.  Even with the loss of Franks and Reynolds, OU, will just redistribute to 4 and 5 star WR's  Landry Jones came back to win a Heisman and be a 1st round pick.     I think BG Bob will want to set the tone for the season  with a big win at UTEP.   BG Bob has a rep for destroying (running up the score) on Texas schools.  Though OU does not rely on Texas like it has in the past (Adrian Peterson et al) and it does recruit nationally, because it can, Texas is still a fertile recruiting ground.  The chance to destroy a verion of The University of Texas (though it be El Paso) will motivate his players and get them focussed.  OU has a great O Line, great secondary, outstanding leaders at LB with Word and Nelson, and McFarland anchoring the line.  UTEP lost there top 3 rushers including banyard.     UTEP plays teams liek University of Houston tough in El Paso, but I think the talent differential is just too huge.   

OU had a dispointing year last year.  Vennebles left for Clemson, Mike Stoops rejoined OU as DC, and with the Franks and Reynolds suspensions, OU seems to have a chip on its shoulders.  Barring any key injurings to Stills or Jones, I think OU opens a can of whoop behind on a Pice coached Texas team.

Oklahoma 49

UTEP 7

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#59
Posted: 5/29/2012 2:27:00 PM
I'd put a little on OU for shits and giggles if the line was under 35 based solely on the difference in talent level alone...
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#60
Posted: 5/29/2012 4:08:50 PM
sorry for the misspellings...
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#61
Posted: 5/29/2012 4:23:45 PM
granted, i don't know what the true opening lines will be.  i base this in part on phil steele power ratings.  but, he is normally pretty close.   honestly, i think lsu and ucf will cover 43 and 28, respectively.  However, too much over those two points (no more than 2 points) and i will back off from those games and find another.  I would prefer if UCF were playing in Orlando, but Akron's home field value is de minimis...
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#62
Posted: 5/29/2012 4:44:31 PM
Ha you could give Akron a 14 point lead and they still wouldn't cover
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#63
Posted: 5/31/2012 9:51:13 AM
Thursday august 30th

S Bama  5.5    UTSA
SC        9.5     *Vanderbilt
UCLA    24     *Rice
UCF      16.5     *Akron
Ball St     6.5       EMU
Minnesota  6.5    *UNLV
Texas A&M    9.5     *La Tech
BYU          11.5     Washington St

Friday 
Temple    3.5     Villanova 
*Tennessee   7.5   NC St
Michigan St    8.5    Boise St 
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#64
Posted: 5/31/2012 9:53:04 AM
Saturday
*Notre Dame 14.5     Navy
Troy       4.5            *UAB
Arizona     17.5        Toledo
Stanford     21.5       SJ St
CAL          17.5        Nevada
USC          31.5        Hawai'i
Florida      33        Bowling Green
Georgia      41.5      U at Buffalo
Iowa St       6.5       Tulsa
LSU            43.5     N Texas
Syracuse    2.5      Northwestern
Ohio St.      28        Miami Oh
Penn St      17.5     Ohio
Texas          31     Wyoming 
Washington   13.5     SD St.
WVA            21.5      Marshall 
Illinois          13         WMU
*Iowa            12.5      N Illinois
Oregon         35.5      Arkansas St
Oklahoma     32.5      *UTEP
Rutgers        7.5       *Tulane 
Nebraska      16.5       So. Miss
UVA            10.5          Richmond
Maryland      11.5       W&Mary
Miami Fl         5.5        *BC
Duke             4.5         FIU
*Clemson        5        Auburn 
*Alabama       14       Michigan
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#65
Posted: 5/31/2012 9:53:47 AM
Sunday 
*Colorado   13.5    Colorado St
Louisville      10       UK
Baylor         8.5      SMU
monday
Va Tech      8.5      Ga Tech
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#66
Posted: 5/31/2012 12:25:24 PM
Can I get an early spread on the MSU-Jackson St game???
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#67
Posted: 5/31/2012 4:18:44 PM
Accoridng to Phil Steele, UCF 130 and Akron 99 (rounded up) with a 2.25 Akron Home Field factor implies a 28 to 29 UCF spread.   If this spread is truly only 16.5, then I'll take it!   I think by game time it will be at least in the mid 20's...Bowden and Amato will definitely have a positive impact on Akron, but it won't be demonstrated in the 1st game...
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#68
Posted: 5/31/2012 4:19:46 PM
DUFL - I think the spread for PSU Ohio will be closer to 14...
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#69
Posted: 5/31/2012 4:20:58 PM
and stanford SJSU will be more like -26...
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#70
Posted: 5/31/2012 8:47:13 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Corley1011:

Can I get an early spread on the MSU-Jackson St game???

33.5 right now 
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#71
Posted: 5/31/2012 8:48:12 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by shark_apreza:

DBLUP

my brother---nice to see you back in business
---- looking forwrd for ur proyections and colorfull threads

Thanks for stopping by Brother 

Glad someone like to read through all the craziness 
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#72
Posted: 6/1/2012 6:19:04 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by LonghornHoosier:

DUFL - I think the spread for PSU Ohio will be closer to 14...
Guess it's more wishful thinking 

Like the Bobcats with 17+
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#73
Posted: 6/2/2012 11:25:41 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by LonghornHoosier:

and stanford SJSU will be more like -26...

Agree .. will have to make adjustments next time around ...Did not think so many preseason Mags would have the Cardinal so High
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#74
Posted: 6/2/2012 11:43:49 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by The Garfather:

Don't forget UMass at UConn on Thursday.

I would think you see the Huskies somewhere around 2 touchdowns.

Yes maybe even higher ... would like a rushing Prop


Thanks for the heads up Brother
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#75
Posted: 6/2/2012 11:46:07 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by LonghornHoosier:

granted, i don't know what the true opening lines will be.  i base this in part on phil steele power ratings.  but, he is normally pretty close.   honestly, i think lsu and ucf will cover 43 and 28, respectively.  However, too much over those two points (no more than 2 points) and i will back off from those games and find another.  I would prefer if UCF were playing in Orlando, but Akron's home field value is de minimis...

Yeah I hear ya on UCF 

But sometimes fishy things go on in MAC Home games vs OOC foes... Once I saw Army make a FG here in Buffalo and both Refs looked at each other and declared it no Good ...

Would not shock me to see UCF Win 19-7...after being up 19-0 at half 
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