| Author: |
[MLB Betting] Topic: wednesdays opening day garbage |
|
LanceLogan |
RSI   View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: bet365 | |
Veteran
Joined: Mar 2011
Posts: 4767
Location: British
Columbia |
#1 Posted: 3/27/2012 8:48:54 PM Gonna start the season playing the side and the total, both for 1 unit.
Mariners @ 1.74- You already know that Felix has a 14-3 lifetime record vs the A's. But did you know the M's have won 5 straight season openers, last 2 vs the A's. The A's haven't won season opener since 2004.
Over 7 @ 2.05- You do know that the Tokyo Dome is a indoor stadium don't you, no wind, perfect playing conditions. I looked up the dimensions,, center 400.3 ft, right/left 328.1 ft. These dimensions are similar to that of the Reds ballpark which is considered a hitters park. Did you know but the A's and M's have to darn with more exhibition games on saturday? That makes me think that maybe the starters won't be pushed, 6 or 7 innings maybe. I'm ignoring last years stats in this one, both sides added a bat or 2 in the offseason and I'm looking for some runs when the bullpens takes over to send this over the total.
Good luck people, later |
|
quote |
|
looch17 |
View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Pinnacle Sports | |
Captain
Joined: Jan 2009
Posts: 6997
Location: Ontario |
#2 Posted: 3/27/2012 9:15:27 PM  |
|
quote |
|
LanceLogan |
RSI |
Veteran
Joined: Mar 2011
Posts: 4767
Location: British
Columbia |
#3 Posted: 3/27/2012 10:36:33 PM |
|
quote |
|
KeyElement |
RSI |
Captain
Joined: Dec 2007
Posts: 6964
Location: Arizona |
#4 Posted: 3/27/2012 10:58:33 PM
|
|
quote |
|
tinfoils |
RSI  |
Legend
Joined: Jun 2002
Posts: 34949
Location: |
#5 Posted: 3/27/2012 11:04:11 PM  |
|
quote |
|
|
|
yisman |
RSI  |
Prospect
Joined: Nov 2006
Posts: 172
Location: New York |
#6 Posted: 3/27/2012 11:08:27 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by KeyElement:
Interesting view Lance, but his game counts in the standings and neither team will give a crap about Saturday. Hernandez, strikeout and ground ball pitcher. McCarthy, 4.92:1 K/BB ratio, 1.13:1 GB/FB ratio and 0.58 per 9 HR's. If it it don't get up, it don't get out, and it won't matter if it is in a dome with short fences under ideal conditions. And in Seattle or Oakland you would see 6.5, possibly 6. You may get there but it probably won't be easy.
agreed. When you consider the starting pitchers and the lineups, this would definitely be 6 or 6.5 were it in the States.
|
|
quote |
|
LanceLogan |
RSI |
Veteran
Joined: Mar 2011
Posts: 4767
Location: British
Columbia |
#7 Posted: 3/27/2012 11:12:20 PM Last year there were 6 over/unders of 6.5, 7 was the norm. I would argue that with Bailey gone the A's pen is a little weaker and more saves might be blown. With the addition of Montero the M's offence has nowhere to go but up. Last april I got killed making plays based on stats and trends from the year before. This april i'm taking a differnt aproach. That being said the line on the over is even money now on bet365, which means i'm not the only one that thinks this. |
|
quote |
|
LaDaddy |
RSI |
Hall of Fame
Joined: Feb 2007
Posts: 22018
Location: Massachusetts |
#8 Posted: 3/27/2012 11:24:09 PM  ,gL |
|
quote |
|
Raidernator76 |
RSI |
MVP
Joined: Dec 2003
Posts: 16108
Location: United States |
#9 Posted: 3/28/2012 12:02:05 AM |
|
quote |
|
boycali01 |
RSI |
Veteran
Joined: Jun 2007
Posts: 3696
Location: California |
#10 Posted: 3/28/2012 12:08:24 AM |
|
quote |
|
yisman |
RSI |
Prospect
Joined: Nov 2006
Posts: 172
Location: New York |
#11 Posted: 3/28/2012 12:35:49 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by LanceLogan: Last year there were 6 over/unders of 6.5, 7 was the norm.
What? That's not true. There were a lot of totals set at 6.5 or lower in the AL West and NL West.
|
|
quote |
|
LanceLogan |
RSI |
Veteran
Joined: Mar 2011
Posts: 4767
Location: British
Columbia |
#12 Posted: 3/28/2012 12:43:06 AM That was the norm in the A's vs M's games, slow down a bit when you read.
Was surfing around and found that the total opened at 9.5, sharps pounded it down to 7,,,,,interesting. |
|
quote |
|
aleoc2891 |
RSI  |
Veteran
Joined: Mar 2011
Posts: 1069
Location: Ontario |
#13 Posted: 3/28/2012 1:55:49 AM with you on the over
bol |
|
quote |
|
Orangemen44 |
RSI |
Legend
Joined: Feb 2008
Posts: 33222
Location: New York |
#14 Posted: 3/28/2012 5:26:01 AM |
|
quote |
|
snake2710 |
RSI  |
All-Star
Joined: Oct 2010
Posts: 11703
Location: New Zealand |
#15 Posted: 3/28/2012 5:33:26 AM |
|
quote |
|
yisman |
RSI |
Prospect
Joined: Nov 2006
Posts: 172
Location: New York |
#16 Posted: 3/28/2012 7:06:24 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by LanceLogan: That was the norm in the A's vs M's games, slow down a bit when you read.
Was surfing around and found that the total opened at 9.5, sharps pounded it down to 7,,,,,interesting.
A) I read what you wrote, and nowhere did you mention specifically A's/M's games.
B)Where did you see total opening at 9.5? Hard to believe a book would open themselves up like that.
|
|
quote |
|
spartak |
RSI |
Captain
Joined: Nov 2010
Posts: 6850
Location: Ontario |
#17 Posted: 3/28/2012 7:43:52 AM |
|
quote |
|
RUSSINGER |
RSI  |
Veteran
Joined: Apr 2011
Posts: 2066
Location: Idaho |
#18 Posted: 3/28/2012 8:41:41 AM a lil late lancy but good luck... tied in 10th |
|
quote |
|
mbullitt04 |
View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: 5Dimes | |
Veteran
Joined: Jul 2011
Posts: 2215
Location: Texas |
#19 Posted: 3/28/2012 9:05:12 AM |
|
quote |
|
LanceLogan |
RSI |
Veteran
Joined: Mar 2011
Posts: 4767
Location: British
Columbia |
#20 Posted: 3/28/2012 9:44:13 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by yisman:
A) I read what you wrote, and nowhere did you mention specifically A's/M's games.
B)Where did you see total opening at 9.5? Hard to believe a book would open themselves up like that.
On the matchup page and a preview on another site. 3-1 M's,,,,should of just stuck to the side.
I'm not even gonna look at a Vargas/Colon matchup,, see ya next week.
|
|
quote |
|
LanceLogan |
RSI |
Veteran
Joined: Mar 2011
Posts: 4767
Location: British
Columbia |
#21 Posted: 3/28/2012 10:32:14 AM darn it a preseason play
Cardninals @ 1.86- With Wainwright on the mound and a full line up starting I can't help but not play this vs a Tigers team that seams to have lost interest in spring training with a rookie lefty on the mound Drew Smyly and damn near all backups.
good luck today to the true degenerates
|
|
quote |
|
GiLmo574 |
View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Hard Rock | |
Covers Rehab
Joined: Nov 2008
Posts: 21804
Location: California |
#22 Posted: 3/28/2012 1:09:14 PM Chop/Chop on Opening Night, L'z. Good garbage...
Back to the well on the *OVER* tonight?? I'm on it...
|
|
quote |
|
tinfoils |
RSI |
Legend
Joined: Jun 2002
Posts: 34949
Location: |
#23 Posted: 3/28/2012 1:14:54 PM |
|
quote |
|
yisman |
RSI |
Prospect
Joined: Nov 2006
Posts: 172
Location: New York |
#24 Posted: 3/28/2012 1:46:44 PM
Additionally, I checked the odds history of the game, and it actually opened slightly LOWER than where it closed (7, but with the under more heavily favored) so whatever site said it opened at 9.5 is wrong.
|
|
quote |