WEEK 6 - NFL Breakdown Sheets

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Author: [NFL Betting] Topic: WEEK 6 - NFL Breakdown Sheets
si1ly PM si1ly
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Posted: 10/12/2012 11:56:29 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by vegaslover:

Sill, what do you think of DET.  I am thinking of playing them simply based on motivation.  An article came out from an unknow GM calling out the DET GM/Coach and players basically saying that DET was overrated.  While I agree with the unnamed GM, I think this will be a motivation point for DET coming off a bye, any thoughts?

I'm higher on the Eagles than I probably should be, but that said I think the line oddsmakers set on this game is very fair.  If I had to lean one direction it would be on Detroit.  But that said, the Eagles have a formidable pass defense and when you play against the Lions that's all you have to defend.  Tough call here, I'm most likely passing.
prman23 PM prman23
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Posted: 10/12/2012 1:46:20 PM

cant get nfl link to work?? copy and paste - then says site not available

 

Pasteur PM Pasteur
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Posted: 10/12/2012 1:47:44 PM
I know you didn't play it but your lean on the over was also on point

I know a lot of cappers here are on the Giants.  Do you have an opinion on that game?  Something about the line is making my gut twitch...
prman23 PM prman23
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Posted: 10/12/2012 1:54:36 PM
got it to work.  Minn vsWash??
si1ly PM si1ly
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Posted: 10/12/2012 2:07:36 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Pasteur:

I know you didn't play it but your lean on the over was also on point

I know a lot of cappers here are on the Giants.  Do you have an opinion on that game?  Something about the line is making my gut twitch...

I posted some stats on the Giants defense on page 1.  They're not very good.. and they're on the road against the highest rated QB in the NFL with a great running game and modern NFL vertical threats at WR and TE.  Not to mention it's a revenge game for the 9ers.  I don't know how you can bet on the Giants in this spot.  But I'm probably not going to play it.  All the statistical edges are in San Fran's favor though.. hard to ignore that.
alabamam25 PM alabamam25
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Posted: 10/12/2012 2:19:14 PM
so only pick is denver? any leans? on sunday
coachwbb PM coachwbb
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Posted: 10/12/2012 4:15:21 PM
Great call last night Si1ly.  I love reading the posts.  Good luck this weekend.
Lakerboy PM Lakerboy
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Posted: 10/13/2012 1:22:14 AM
Silly what do you think about seattle +3.5 dogs at home against the pats? Theyve been playing dominant defense at home but just worried they cannot get any points up..still your model shows they should be +0.5
MNFTheory PM MNFTheory
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Posted: 10/13/2012 2:42:06 AM
Just staying away from Detroit, just playing them on the Monday Night game for week 7.


Detroit @ Chicago

Detroit = not covered
Chicago covered against Jacksonville in week 5

Since Chicago have two blown out games consecutive  = Detroit.

Oakland in week 7 because might have 2 consecutive weeks BLOWN OUT.

MNFTheory PM MNFTheory
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Posted: 10/13/2012 2:43:23 AM
Oakland might have two consecutive weeks BEING blown out.
si1ly PM si1ly
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Posted: 10/13/2012 8:21:25 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Lakerboy:

Silly what do you think about seattle +3.5 dogs at home against the pats? Theyve been playing dominant defense at home but just worried they cannot get any points up..still your model shows they should be +0.5


Here's the thing, Seattle is hard enough to play on the road as it is.. now they have a defense that is a statistical 'dream team' without the big name players (like the cough-cough Philadelphia Eagles).  And Seattle can live up to that title.  However, the Patriots offense is clearly one of - if not - the best in the NFL.  It's versatile, it's deep with play makers, and it's fast.  It's a defensive nightmare.  My models show some value on Seattle - and you shouldn't be surprised by this - the Patriots are a very public team and people are not willing to buy into Russell Wilson and some no name defenders on a small market team.  A fair line is probably closer to PK with Seattle maybe a hair underdog.  However, betting on line value alone is not a wise practice in the NFL.  Anyone can fade the public as they say when the line is inflated for one team or another.  To be successful you have to filter these results.  Is the Patriots offense REALLY a team you want to betting against?  Is Russell Willson REALLY capable of beating Bill Belichick?  I just don't have a lot of confidence in the Seahawks when I think about this game like that.  It's probably best to stay away from the Elite teams in the NFL and the Patriots are definitely one of them in my mind.  I'll likely be a specator in this game.  But like I said, there's no denying the line value is at least a couple points in Seattle's favor.
Lakerboy PM Lakerboy
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Posted: 10/13/2012 2:21:04 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by si1ly:


Here's the thing, Seattle is hard enough to play on the road as it is.. now they have a defense that is a statistical 'dream team' without the big name players (like the cough-cough Philadelphia Eagles).  And Seattle can live up to that title.  However, the Patriots offense is clearly one of - if not - the best in the NFL.  It's versatile, it's deep with play makers, and it's fast.  It's a defensive nightmare.  My models show some value on Seattle - and you shouldn't be surprised by this - the Patriots are a very public team and people are not willing to buy into Russell Wilson and some no name defenders on a small market team.  A fair line is probably closer to PK with Seattle maybe a hair underdog.  However, betting on line value alone is not a wise practice in the NFL.  Anyone can fade the public as they say when the line is inflated for one team or another.  To be successful you have to filter these results.  Is the Patriots offense REALLY a team you want to betting against?  Is Russell Willson REALLY capable of beating Bill Belichick?  I just don't have a lot of confidence in the Seahawks when I think about this game like that.  It's probably best to stay away from the Elite teams in the NFL and the Patriots are definitely one of them in my mind.  I'll likely be a specator in this game.  But like I said, there's no denying the line value is at least a couple points in Seattle's favor.


Thanks, I agree with the fact that NE has one of the best offenses in the game, which always worries me betting against them. As you say I will now lay off this game and keep looking
Barnstorm PM Barnstorm
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Posted: 10/13/2012 10:03:46 PM
Bellichik has a pretty good record vs Rookie QBs.
Barnstorm PM Barnstorm
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Posted: 10/13/2012 10:05:27 PM
You hit the mail on the head with this Hawks - Pats game. We want to go Seattle, but why bang your head against the wall vs an elite team?Brady may only need 17 or 20 points to beat the conservative Russell Wilson offense.
carlos1321 PM carlos1321
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Posted: 10/13/2012 10:36:26 PM
Nice pick on tnf... 
 I wanted to get your opinon on bills vs az game..
I like the bills with the points.. Althought az has good dfense
There o line cant put points on the board. I see bills getting to 
Kolb and causing turn overs.. Whats your take on this??
si1ly PM si1ly
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Posted: 10/13/2012 10:53:12 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by carlos1321:

Nice pick on tnf... 
 I wanted to get your opinon on bills vs az game..
I like the bills with the points.. Althought az has good dfense
There o line cant put points on the board. I see bills getting to 
Kolb and causing turn overs.. Whats your take on this??

I've said my peace on this game in a few different posts in this thread.. take the time to read through it and you;ll have your answer

txn PM txn
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Posted: 10/13/2012 10:59:23 PM
DaSaltySluG PM DaSaltySluG
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Posted: 10/13/2012 11:16:51 PM
Did you ever breakdown the CIN vs CLE game or the MIA vs STL...? Please get back to me ASAP!
DaSaltySluG PM DaSaltySluG
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Posted: 10/13/2012 11:17:48 PM
Add me if you don't mind..I have to ask u a few thigns.. =]
jsorbara PM jsorbara
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Posted: 10/13/2012 11:23:48 PM
nice work!  si1ly
MRxKrazz PM MRxKrazz
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Posted: 10/13/2012 11:35:00 PM
si1ly, 1st time poster on any of ur threads, just read through all 4 pages and u seem to have some really good data on games. Im looking for sort of a come back this Sunday and if ATL hit i might have to make another large warger on the GB and Hou game, can I please get ur input on this game. Thanks in advance.

MRxKrazz
carlos1321 PM carlos1321
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Posted: 10/13/2012 11:38:31 PM
Lol
Unplug PM Unplug
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Posted: 10/13/2012 11:46:12 PM
what do u think about colts vs jets?
nyj have lost their 2 biggest playmakers, but now there best pass rusher is out and their starting saftey

Rex ryan gonna disguise his blitz against luck, but he should normally have time and we all know about NYJ offensive woes, but they should be able to run decently on the colts bad run D
chivashoolio PM chivashoolio
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Posted: 10/14/2012 4:14:01 AM
look forward to seeing your plays
pmova22 PM pmova22
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quote#100
Posted: 10/14/2012 4:59:02 AM
likewise, amazing work sily 
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