3K to win 3K on Vancouver ? Hedge, ADVICE PLEASE!

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Author: [NHL Betting] Topic: 3K to win 3K on Vancouver ? Hedge, ADVICE PLEASE!
LakeShowTime PM LakeShowTime
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Posted: 6/11/2011 11:14:30 PM
My local booky gave me a very nice 1:1 odds 3K to win 3k on the Nucks before Game 5 vs the Sharks because I've lost so much in the past he didn't care or something.... No joke :)

I also have 100 to win 545 on Bruins bet before Game 3. What's the best way to approach this tommorrow? Best the series again for Bruins or go game by game?

Any advice is greatly appreciated! I think Bruins win Game 6 but Nucks win in 7, or the Nucks win Game 6 or win the Cup somehow.
LakeShowTime PM LakeShowTime
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Posted: 6/11/2011 11:26:11 PM
How would you approach this to make sure you get the safest money back?
LakeShowTime PM LakeShowTime
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Posted: 6/11/2011 11:52:39 PM
No one can offer their thoughts?
pdouble PM pdouble
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Posted: 6/11/2011 11:56:56 PM
imo 

 i would throw down on b's in gm 6  and go from there 
pdouble PM pdouble
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Posted: 6/12/2011 12:02:23 AM
i like your strategy from my thread 
i love the canucks to win it all , but it would be nice to cover your behind a lil bit 

throw down  like 750 on b's in gm 6  if they lose , w/e your still u over 2k and if they win , you can throw down the 1250 you got from the b's in gm 6 and throw it  on vancouver in gm 7 
drJ PM drJ
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Posted: 6/12/2011 12:13:32 AM
well you have time to think about it.

is 3K huge for you.  seems to be and if so then protecting some coin is helpful.

what are your game 6 odds from him

what are your series odds.

then factor in the game 7 odds.

personally if i were in your shoes id bet 1500 ML-130's? on the b's mon and if they win then maybe all your winning on b's ml  (?+150 ish)which puts you at 1100 or so plus 1650(1100x+150) plus 545 so youre not behind raped if the b's win but come out great if its a game 7 win for van and good if its a game 6 win for van....  van should win it though i expect a game 7. 

if you need to assure more coin no matter what then game 7 bet 1400 on ml.

dont play with puck lines if the dough is an issue.

well thats one strategy...im sure there are others.  GL with your choices
LakeShowTime PM LakeShowTime
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Posted: 6/12/2011 12:13:51 AM
Ya right... GL BRO.. Thanks... I THINK THE B'S WILL WIN NEXT GAME... but it will be a one point game I think.... so I might bet both teams and the UNDER
LakeShowTime PM LakeShowTime
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Posted: 6/12/2011 12:20:36 AM
Great advice,  I guess I should stay away from the puck lines your right... IM LOOKING FOR ANOTHER UNDER TOMORROW...
ESCAPE_ PM ESCAPE_
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Posted: 6/12/2011 12:43:28 AM
why not just let it ride  on vancouver an win 2900
LakeShowTime PM LakeShowTime
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Posted: 6/12/2011 12:50:50 AM
Escape I love your mindset, but vancouver has scoring problems for some reason. I'm still thinking about it, been hearing you on Vancouver all day. Tim thomas is still amazing... Why do you think vancouver will win? They look like a different team in Boston
ESCAPE_ PM ESCAPE_
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Posted: 6/12/2011 12:57:57 AM
this is a  cut an paste from my other topic.

I like Vancouver alot  here  for a few  reasons. One is that the defense pairings  they have been juggling through out this  cup  final looks like  they have some stability there with  last game. They  had some real  problems  fiddling  with the pairings after  game 1 an  especially after Rome  got thrown  out. Everybody  now looks real  comfordable out their, an the biggest benificiary of  it is Beiska. Two I  loved the physicality Vancouver brought the  other night.  They were head an shoulders above  Boston in this. They woke up an realized what it takes to  win  in the  cup finals. Even  the Sedin's were  hitting  people an  that  penalty was worth  it  by  Henrik. When  you got those guys  hitting an  paying the price its  a good thing. I  think this  team gets it now. Three The clutch  play  of  Vancouver in tight games. In these  entire  playoffs if the Canucks a rent getting blown out , when  they  come into  the  3rd period of  a game within 1 goal or tied it seems  like they always pull it  out. This  team  wins the tight  ones  this playoff year.  Four The Sedins an Kesler have basically done nothing  along with the power play. The Sedin's are  healthy unlike  Kesler, an they competed hard last night an didnt shy away from contact. They both looked very  good out there  in my opinion  last night strong  on  the puck, making plays. They are up 3-2 in this series with basically no  production from there top 3 super stars or  power  play which goes hand in hand.. With a good game by these 3 players knowing whats at stake the  past 5 games will be forgotten.   An their careers will be defined by it. The same goes for  Luongo. With a great effort in game 6 his career would  also be defined.  I expect him  to rise  to the occasion. So it comes down for me to  if the  Canucks can go  into the 3rd down  a goal  or up or tied I love their chances.  They  have been so good  in close games in the 3rd periods this  Cup  finals but w hole playoffs to. An the fact that most everybody in the world thinks Boston is  going to win this  game  along  with  most  of the public bettors  makes me  like  it just a little more.  This  is a great Canucks team, I expect them to be  great  Monday night an win this thing.
Pucksrus PM Pucksrus
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Posted: 6/12/2011 1:13:26 AM
If you can get the Bruins at +1500 to win the cup.

Bet $200 to win $3,000. 

If you can't get that then sit back and enjoy the show.   
LakeShowTime PM LakeShowTime
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Posted: 6/12/2011 1:46:01 AM
Obviously you cant get them at +1500 LOL.. I got this bet a while ago.... before the cup...
NJDevils PM NJDevils
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Posted: 6/12/2011 2:25:26 AM
why would you hedge in game 6..i know you can lose anything but why bother? Game 7 u could at +160 or whatever it would be
LakeShowTime PM LakeShowTime
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Posted: 6/12/2011 2:33:15 AM
Good point NJ devils...
drJ PM drJ
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Posted: 6/12/2011 2:54:12 AM
reason why to bet the b's depends on the hedging goal,  is it to guarantee money or just lower the loss if the b's win 2.

if its to guarantee money, my way is better.

if its just to lower the loss the wait till game 7 and put anywhere from 1000 to 1500.
LakeShowTime PM LakeShowTime
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Posted: 6/12/2011 4:12:27 AM
thanks DrJ and everyone... I think the B's will win next game in an under..
theSleeper PM theSleeper
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Posted: 6/12/2011 12:13:09 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by ESCAPE_:

this is a  cut an paste from my other topic.

I like Vancouver alot  here  for a few  reasons. One is that the defense pairings  they have been juggling through out this  cup  final looks like  they have some stability there with  last game. They  had some real  problems  fiddling  with the pairings after  game 1 an  especially after Rome  got thrown  out. Everybody  now looks real  comfordable out their, an the biggest benificiary of  it is Beiska. Two I  loved the physicality Vancouver brought the  other night.  They were head an shoulders above  Boston in this. They woke up an realized what it takes to  win  in the  cup finals. Even  the Sedin's were  hitting  people an  that  penalty was worth  it  by  Henrik. When  you got those guys  hitting an  paying the price its  a good thing. I  think this  team gets it now. Three The clutch  play  of  Vancouver in tight games. In these  entire  playoffs if the Canucks a rent getting blown out , when  they  come into  the  3rd period of  a game within 1 goal or tied it seems  like they always pull it  out. This  team  wins the tight  ones  this playoff year.  Four The Sedins an Kesler have basically done nothing  along with the power play. The Sedin's are  healthy unlike  Kesler, an they competed hard last night an didnt shy away from contact. They both looked very  good out there  in my opinion  last night strong  on  the puck, making plays. They are up 3-2 in this series with basically no  production from there top 3 super stars or  power  play which goes hand in hand.. With a good game by these 3 players knowing whats at stake the  past 5 games will be forgotten.   An their careers will be defined by it. The same goes for  Luongo. With a great effort in game 6 his career would  also be defined.  I expect him  to rise  to the occasion. So it comes down for me to  if the  Canucks can go  into the 3rd down  a goal  or up or tied I love their chances.  They  have been so good  in close games in the 3rd periods this  Cup  finals but w hole playoffs to. An the fact that most everybody in the world thinks Boston is  going to win this  game  along  with  most  of the public bettors  makes me  like  it just a little more.  This  is a great Canucks team, I expect them to be  great  Monday night an win this thing.
One thing to consider is... the are the Bruin fans in Luongo's  head?... seems so, and I think the Bruins score at least 2 here.
FrozenTundra PM FrozenTundra
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Posted: 6/12/2011 12:18:53 PM
You're free rolling next game with Van.  IMO Van will win the cup.  Like mentioned above, if Bos wins next game, you can get Bos at +160 in game 7 for a great hedging opportunity.

hedging now will eat at your profits.
rangerz2478 PM rangerz2478
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Posted: 6/12/2011 2:58:30 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by NJDevils:

why would you hedge in game 6..i know you can lose anything but why bother? Game 7 u could at +160 or whatever it would be


...Because he could get +330 by hedging now...
rangerz2478 PM rangerz2478
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Posted: 6/12/2011 3:03:48 PM
A lot of opinions in this thread that are fine but I'd look at it this way...

The current value of your Nucks Cup bet is roughly 4.6k. In other words, if you WANTED to completely hedge out right now, you would put 1.4k to win roughly 4.6k on the Bruins series line to equal your Canucks payout. To put it in stock terms, you can "sell" your bet right now for a guaranteed 4.6k either way. If they win without hedging, you obviously get the full 6k.

If the Bruins win game 6 (which you clearly think they will) the value of your Nucks Cup bet will be roughly 3.6k. (betting 2.4k to win 3.6k on Bruins game 7 to equal the Canucks payout)

Obviously I am not telling you to completely hedge out, just giving you an idea of the current value in each situation. So to summarize, your 3 options are...

- Let it ride and either get 6k or nothing.

- Sell it before game 6 for 4.6k. (regardless of who wins)

- Sell it before game 7 for 3.6k. (regardless of who wins)

The choice is yours, but this is the way I would look at it. GL.
potvin PM potvin
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Posted: 6/12/2011 3:10:43 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by rangerz2478:

A lot of opinions in this thread that are fine but I'd look at it this way...

The current value of your Nucks Cup bet is roughly 4.6k. In other words, if you WANTED to completely hedge out right now, you would put 1.4k to win roughly 4.6k on the Bruins series line to equal your Canucks payout. To put it in stock terms, you can "sell" your bet right now for a guaranteed 4.6k either way. If they win without hedging, you obviously get the full 6k.

If the Bruins win game 6 (which you clearly think they will) the value of your Nucks Cup bet will be roughly 3.6k. (betting 2.4k to win 3.6k on Bruins game 7 to equal the Canucks payout)

Obviously I am not telling you to completely hedge out, just giving you an idea of the current value in each situation. So to summarize, your 3 options are...

lake show time, this is definatly (in my opion) one of the best at money management ( not my best asset, but very impotant!)

- Let it ride and either get 6k or nothing.

- Sell it before game 6 for 4.6k. (regardless of who wins)

- Sell it before game 7 for 3.6k. (regardless of who wins)

The choice is yours, but this is the way I would look at it. GL.

potvin PM potvin
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Posted: 6/12/2011 3:20:31 PM
something went wrong last post. mr.lakeshow time.rangerz(in my opinion) is one of the top players in the forum with moneymanagementskills (one that i dont possess)but is very important in this game! it sounds good to sell!!! nice piece of coin,no risk either way i wish you luck!
LakeShowTime PM LakeShowTime
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Posted: 6/13/2011 12:01:22 AM
Rangers sounds good, but does not really make sense to me. I have 3K to win 3K on the Canucks and 100 to win 550 on the Bruins.. WHAT WOULD YOU DO?
claude_gir0ux PM claude_gir0ux
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Posted: 6/13/2011 3:14:50 AM

hedge !

just alittle.

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