| Author: |
[NHL Betting] Topic: 3K to win 3K on Vancouver ? Hedge, ADVICE PLEASE! |
|
LakeShowTime |
 View Space | Friends | Playbook | |
Veteran
Joined: Oct 2009
Posts: 1265
Location: California |
#1 Posted: 6/11/2011 11:14:30 PM
I also have 100 to win 545 on Bruins bet before Game 3. What's the best way to approach this tommorrow? Best the series again for Bruins or go game by game?
Any advice is greatly appreciated! I think Bruins win Game 6 but Nucks win in 7, or the Nucks win Game 6 or win the Cup somehow.
|
|
quote |
|
LakeShowTime |
View Space | Friends | Playbook | |
Veteran
Joined: Oct 2009
Posts: 1265
Location: California |
#2 Posted: 6/11/2011 11:26:11 PM
|
|
quote |
|
LakeShowTime |
View Space | Friends | Playbook | |
Veteran
Joined: Oct 2009
Posts: 1265
Location: California |
#3 Posted: 6/11/2011 11:52:39 PM
|
|
quote |
|
pdouble |
RSI  |
Veteran
Joined: Jun 2009
Posts: 3283
Location: British
Columbia |
#4 Posted: 6/11/2011 11:56:56 PM
i would throw down on b's in gm 6 and go from there |
|
quote |
|
pdouble |
RSI |
Veteran
Joined: Jun 2009
Posts: 3283
Location: British
Columbia |
#5 Posted: 6/12/2011 12:02:23 AM i love the canucks to win it all , but it would be nice to cover your behind a lil bit
throw down like 750 on b's in gm 6 if they lose , w/e your still u over 2k and if they win , you can throw down the 1250 you got from the b's in gm 6 and throw it on vancouver in gm 7 |
|
quote |
|
|
|
drJ |
View Space | Friends | Playbook | |
Captain
Joined: Nov 2006
Posts: 6738
Location: Nevada |
#6 Posted: 6/12/2011 12:13:32 AM
is 3K huge for you. seems to be and if so then protecting some coin is helpful.
what are your game 6 odds from him
what are your series odds.
then factor in the game 7 odds.
personally if i were in your shoes id bet 1500 ML-130's? on the b's mon and if they win then maybe all your winning on b's ml (?+150 ish)which puts you at 1100 or so plus 1650(1100x+150) plus 545 so youre not behind raped if the b's win but come out great if its a game 7 win for van and good if its a game 6 win for van.... van should win it though i expect a game 7.
if you need to assure more coin no matter what then game 7 bet 1400 on ml.
dont play with puck lines if the dough is an issue.
well thats one strategy...im sure there are others. GL with your choices
|
|
quote |
|
LakeShowTime |
View Space | Friends | Playbook | |
Veteran
Joined: Oct 2009
Posts: 1265
Location: California |
#7 Posted: 6/12/2011 12:13:51 AM
|
|
quote |
|
LakeShowTime |
View Space | Friends | Playbook | |
Veteran
Joined: Oct 2009
Posts: 1265
Location: California |
#8 Posted: 6/12/2011 12:20:36 AM
|
|
quote |
|
ESCAPE_ |
RSI  |
Veteran
Joined: Apr 2007
Posts: 2020
Location: Massachusetts |
#9 Posted: 6/12/2011 12:43:28 AM |
|
quote |
|
LakeShowTime |
View Space | Friends | Playbook | |
Veteran
Joined: Oct 2009
Posts: 1265
Location: California |
#10 Posted: 6/12/2011 12:50:50 AM
|
|
quote |
|
ESCAPE_ |
RSI |
Veteran
Joined: Apr 2007
Posts: 2020
Location: Massachusetts |
#11 Posted: 6/12/2011 12:57:57 AM
|
| I like Vancouver alot here for a few reasons. One is that the defense pairings they have been juggling through out this cup final looks like they have some stability there with last game. They had some real problems fiddling with the pairings after game 1 an especially after Rome got thrown out. Everybody now looks real comfordable out their, an the biggest benificiary of it is Beiska. Two I loved the physicality Vancouver brought the other night. They were head an shoulders above Boston in this. They woke up an realized what it takes to win in the cup finals. Even the Sedin's were hitting people an that penalty was worth it by Henrik. When you got those guys hitting an paying the price its a good thing. I think this team gets it now. Three The clutch play of Vancouver in tight games. In these entire playoffs if the Canucks a rent getting blown out , when they come into the 3rd period of a game within 1 goal or tied it seems like they always pull it out. This team wins the tight ones this playoff year. Four The Sedins an Kesler have basically done nothing along with the power play. The Sedin's are healthy unlike Kesler, an they competed hard last night an didnt shy away from contact. They both looked very good out there in my opinion last night strong on the puck, making plays. They are up 3-2 in this series with basically no production from there top 3 super stars or power play which goes hand in hand.. With a good game by these 3 players knowing whats at stake the past 5 games will be forgotten. An their careers will be defined by it. The same goes for Luongo. With a great effort in game 6 his career would also be defined. I expect him to rise to the occasion. So it comes down for me to if the Canucks can go into the 3rd down a goal or up or tied I love their chances. They have been so good in close games in the 3rd periods this Cup finals but w hole playoffs to. An the fact that most everybody in the world thinks Boston is going to win this game along with most of the public bettors makes me like it just a little more. This is a great Canucks team, I expect them to be great Monday night an win this thing. | | |
|
|
quote |
|
Pucksrus |
RSI |
Legend
Joined: Sep 2004
Posts: 36412
Location: Ontario |
#12 Posted: 6/12/2011 1:13:26 AM
Bet $200 to win $3,000.
If you can't get that then sit back and enjoy the show.  |
|
quote |
|
LakeShowTime |
View Space | Friends | Playbook | |
Veteran
Joined: Oct 2009
Posts: 1265
Location: California |
#13 Posted: 6/12/2011 1:46:01 AM
|
|
quote |
|
NJDevils |
View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | |
Covers Rehab
Joined: Oct 2004
Posts: 33122
Location: Nevada |
#14 Posted: 6/12/2011 2:25:26 AM
|
|
quote |
|
LakeShowTime |
View Space | Friends | Playbook | |
Veteran
Joined: Oct 2009
Posts: 1265
Location: California |
#15 Posted: 6/12/2011 2:33:15 AM
|
|
quote |
|
drJ |
View Space | Friends | Playbook | |
Captain
Joined: Nov 2006
Posts: 6738
Location: Nevada |
#16 Posted: 6/12/2011 2:54:12 AM
if its to guarantee money, my way is better.
if its just to lower the loss the wait till game 7 and put anywhere from 1000 to 1500.
|
|
quote |
|
LakeShowTime |
View Space | Friends | Playbook | |
Veteran
Joined: Oct 2009
Posts: 1265
Location: California |
#17 Posted: 6/12/2011 4:12:27 AM
|
|
quote |
|
theSleeper |
RSI  |
Prospect
Joined: Jul 2002
Posts: 42
Location: California |
#18 Posted: 6/12/2011 12:13:09 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by ESCAPE_: this is a cut an paste from my other topic.
|
| I like Vancouver alot here for a few reasons. One is that the defense pairings they have been juggling through out this cup final looks like they have some stability there with last game. They had some real problems fiddling with the pairings after game 1 an especially after Rome got thrown out. Everybody now looks real comfordable out their, an the biggest benificiary of it is Beiska. Two I loved the physicality Vancouver brought the other night. They were head an shoulders above Boston in this. They woke up an realized what it takes to win in the cup finals. Even the Sedin's were hitting people an that penalty was worth it by Henrik. When you got those guys hitting an paying the price its a good thing. I think this team gets it now. Three The clutch play of Vancouver in tight games. In these entire playoffs if the Canucks a rent getting blown out , when they come into the 3rd period of a game within 1 goal or tied it seems like they always pull it out. This team wins the tight ones this playoff year. Four The Sedins an Kesler have basically done nothing along with the power play. The Sedin's are healthy unlike Kesler, an they competed hard last night an didnt shy away from contact. They both looked very good out there in my opinion last night strong on the puck, making plays. They are up 3-2 in this series with basically no production from there top 3 super stars or power play which goes hand in hand.. With a good game by these 3 players knowing whats at stake the past 5 games will be forgotten. An their careers will be defined by it. The same goes for Luongo. With a great effort in game 6 his career would also be defined. I expect him to rise to the occasion. So it comes down for me to if the Canucks can go into the 3rd down a goal or up or tied I love their chances. They have been so good in close games in the 3rd periods this Cup finals but w hole playoffs to. An the fact that most everybody in the world thinks Boston is going to win this game along with most of the public bettors makes me like it just a little more. This is a great Canucks team, I expect them to be great Monday night an win this thing. | | |
One thing to consider is... the are the Bruin fans in Luongo's head?... seems so, and I think the Bruins score at least 2 here. |
|
quote |
|
FrozenTundra |
View Space | Friends | Playbook | |
Captain
Joined: Mar 2006
Posts: 7884
Location: Canada |
#19 Posted: 6/12/2011 12:18:53 PM
hedging now will eat at your profits.
|
|
quote |
|
rangerz2478 |
View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | |
All-Star
Joined: Oct 2007
Posts: 13564
Location: New Jersey |
#20 Posted: 6/12/2011 2:58:30 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by NJDevils:
why would you hedge in game 6..i know you can lose anything but why bother? Game 7 u could at +160 or whatever it would be
...Because he could get +330 by hedging now...
|
|
quote |
|
rangerz2478 |
View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | |
All-Star
Joined: Oct 2007
Posts: 13564
Location: New Jersey |
#21 Posted: 6/12/2011 3:03:48 PM
The current value of your Nucks Cup bet is roughly 4.6k. In other words, if you WANTED to completely hedge out right now, you would put 1.4k to win roughly 4.6k on the Bruins series line to equal your Canucks payout. To put it in stock terms, you can "sell" your bet right now for a guaranteed 4.6k either way. If they win without hedging, you obviously get the full 6k.
If the Bruins win game 6 (which you clearly think they will) the value of your Nucks Cup bet will be roughly 3.6k. (betting 2.4k to win 3.6k on Bruins game 7 to equal the Canucks payout)
Obviously I am not telling you to completely hedge out, just giving you an idea of the current value in each situation. So to summarize, your 3 options are...
- Let it ride and either get 6k or nothing.
- Sell it before game 6 for 4.6k. (regardless of who wins)
- Sell it before game 7 for 3.6k. (regardless of who wins)
The choice is yours, but this is the way I would look at it. GL.
|
|
quote |
|
potvin |
RSI |
MVP
Joined: Nov 2010
Posts: 16566
Location: United States |
#22 Posted: 6/12/2011 3:10:43 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by rangerz2478:
A lot of opinions in this thread that are fine but I'd look at it this way...
The current value of your Nucks Cup bet is roughly 4.6k. In other words, if you WANTED to completely hedge out right now, you would put 1.4k to win roughly 4.6k on the Bruins series line to equal your Canucks payout. To put it in stock terms, you can "sell" your bet right now for a guaranteed 4.6k either way. If they win without hedging, you obviously get the full 6k.
If the Bruins win game 6 (which you clearly think they will) the value of your Nucks Cup bet will be roughly 3.6k. (betting 2.4k to win 3.6k on Bruins game 7 to equal the Canucks payout)
Obviously I am not telling you to completely hedge out, just giving you an idea of the current value in each situation. So to summarize, your 3 options are...
lake show time, this is definatly (in my opion) one of the best at money management ( not my best asset, but very impotant!)
- Let it ride and either get 6k or nothing.
- Sell it before game 6 for 4.6k. (regardless of who wins)
- Sell it before game 7 for 3.6k. (regardless of who wins)
The choice is yours, but this is the way I would look at it. GL.
|
|
quote |
|
potvin |
RSI |
MVP
Joined: Nov 2010
Posts: 16566
Location: United States |
#23 Posted: 6/12/2011 3:20:31 PM |
|
quote |
|
LakeShowTime |
View Space | Friends | Playbook | |
Veteran
Joined: Oct 2009
Posts: 1265
Location: California |
#24 Posted: 6/13/2011 12:01:22 AM
|
|
quote |
|
claude_gir0ux |
RSI  |
Hall of Fame
Joined: Jan 2011
Posts: 20526
Location: United States |
#25 Posted: 6/13/2011 3:14:50 AM hedge !
just alittle. |
|
quote |