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Author: [NBA Betting] Topic: Nuggets +500 Series Price.
kaponofor3 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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#26
Posted: 5/10/2012 10:55:01 AM
I see Mikado FINALLY posting again. Where the hell you been man, its the freaking playoffs! This board needs your input! Don't be a stranger.
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#27
Posted: 5/10/2012 11:03:04 AM
Oh, and I agree with Mikado's outlook. I think Nuggets win tonight and then give the Lakers a massive fight in Game 7, I think that game goes down to the wire.
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#28
Posted: 5/10/2012 11:12:35 AM
Although Denver has the hunger and heart to win this important game but I doubt they have the experience like L.A have in this kind of situation to really get the win. Pressure is the name of the game. It will be a close one though but this will be just like game 4. 
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#29
Posted: 5/10/2012 12:51:45 PM
DEN ML today is -120ish so IMPLIED Game 7 is +228.  So if you think you will get better than +228 for Game 7 then bet Game 6, and roll profits to Game 7.  Yes, if you think ML for Game 7 is +200 - that would suggest +450 so there would be value at +500.  (Value in sense you are getting better than alternative - not that it is positive EV necessarily).

GL GL.
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#30
Posted: 5/10/2012 12:54:46 PM
I think this is going to be a 7 game series.  So Denver at +500 in Staples?  Great odds, but I think Denver loses game 7. 
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#31
Posted: 5/10/2012 3:59:10 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by kaponofor3:

Oh, and I agree with Mikado's outlook. I think Nuggets win tonight and then give the Lakers a massive fight in Game 7, I think that game goes down to the wire.


What happens in Game 7 is anybody's game. 
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#32
Posted: 5/10/2012 4:01:20 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by kvs23:

DEN ML today is -120ish so IMPLIED Game 7 is +228.  So if you think you will get better than +228 for Game 7 then bet Game 6, and roll profits to Game 7.  Yes, if you think ML for Game 7 is +200 - that would suggest +450 so there would be value at +500.  (Value in sense you are getting better than alternative - not that it is positive EV necessarily).

GL GL.


IMO, Game 7 line very much depends on what happens tonight.  If Lakeshow get stomped by Denver and lose by 20... do you still think the ML for game 7 is above 200?  Fatigue and energy levels will be a serious concern for the Lakers tonight. 
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#33
Posted: 5/10/2012 4:03:49 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by thatsagoodone:

I think this is going to be a 7 game series.  So Denver at +500 in Staples?  Great odds, but I think Denver loses game 7. 


That's all I can think about to, is how I would get my hopes up with this win and only for them to lose tragically in Game 7.  However, I believe the momentum has swang Denver's way and especially if they can catch a win tonight, they should have a lot to carry on to through Game 7.  It was not like LA did not try to close them out last game, they tried really hard, especially there at the end, but too little too late.  If Denver keeps getting off to good starts and not get behind DD, this series is very much in their control IMO. 
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#34
Posted: 5/10/2012 4:07:40 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by mischkin04:

 That's just it, they didn't close out game 4 at home. Realistically, thier backs were to the wall and needed that win to avoid a 3-1 deficit from which very few have overcome.

 You make some solid points about thier scoring and big men doing the job on D. Yes, they did enough to fend off a scoring surge by the Lakers, but mentally must be thinking about this near collapse after having the game in hand. If it had gone to OT, I doubt the Nugs would've had the confidence to stay alive.

 Artest may not be the absolute key to a victory, but he is a well rested addition to what could be a somewhat drained team at home in game 7 should it be neccesary. I can see relevance in having a fresh set of legs and a player returning who is out to redeem himself after an extended absence.



Game 5 had the same scenario, and they closed out on the road.  Not the prettiest closeout.  When they were ahead 15 with 6 minutes to play, Nugs were just trying to play keep away instead of run in transition which lead to that 15 point lead. 
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#35
Posted: 5/10/2012 4:11:08 PM
Anybody see Metta World Peace on Conan the other night? 

Whata tool
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#36
Posted: 5/10/2012 4:21:32 PM
Taking Denver 1st half tonight -1. 

They have been starting off much better lately than when the series first started.  This game is all about getting the lead early and maintaining it.  The Nuggets want nothing to do with letting LA come back from 10-15 down which is why Karl is going to run, run, run and hope these LA bigs will be even more energy depleted now in the 6th game. 
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#37
Posted: 5/10/2012 4:44:38 PM
where did you find this series price?
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#38
Posted: 5/10/2012 4:45:04 PM
I dont see it on 5 dimes or sportsbetting.com
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#39
Posted: 5/10/2012 4:50:35 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Lurped:

where did you find this series price?


It's there on 5dimes.  I saw it at +505 a minute ago.  Look into the NBA section and it is right below the game line for the series bet. 
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#40
Posted: 5/10/2012 4:54:09 PM
Pretty strange that Denver is +500 and ATL is +515 - yet ATL has homecourt in game 7.

Let's not forget the opening series odds in this series was the lowest LA has experienced in quite some time (-200) (+170 for Nugs). 

Also the fact that LA ALMOST got tossed last year by the freakin Hornets in round 1 probably has something to do with it as well. 

Almost all the stats and records LA has built under Phil Jackson can now essentially be tossed out.  This has been a crazy shortened NBA season and I would like to say anything can happen. 
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#41
Posted: 5/10/2012 4:58:33 PM
I would like to get some viewpoints in here for some of you that really follow the Lakers.

How confident are you that they can win this in 7? 

Did you think this series was ever a lock?  What about after game 3?

Sure history goes against Nuggets, Bulls, and ATL tonight - but history has no effects on their present situations other than a mental standpoint.  These three teams all have a lot of fight in them and won't go down easy.  Especially with the way this series has been played, all it takes is a few missed opportunities by their opponents and they will end up going to the next round.  That is how close all of these series has been. 
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#42
Posted: 5/10/2012 5:07:49 PM
Mikado: my perspective is that I just don't see the Nuggets being able to beat the lakers three games in a row. Take it for what its worth I saw Mcgee and Faried partying tuesday night after their win....could it be they're happy with they're accomplishments already? You know LA is going to show up after what happened on Tues.
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#43
Posted: 5/10/2012 5:08:25 PM
I also have a large bet on the lakers to win series got it at -200 with a local and I'm not considering hedging at all.
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#44
Posted: 5/10/2012 5:08:31 PM
Well, I've been waiting for thread like this for some time and finally it's on the board. I, as someone who has been watching and following Denver closely this season, totally agree with you. The only minus here in game 7 is Lakers' expirienece, but hey, Nuggets've got KARL. And on the other side there is Brown and also Bryant. Yes, many think that Bryant is an amazing clutch player. Yes, he might be but also consider how many nights that he has had this season with shooting under 30%. An he'll take every shot in the last few minutes, and if he has that kind of night there's the chance for Nuggets.
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#45
Posted: 5/10/2012 5:14:28 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by LAL4LIFE:

Mikado: my perspective is that I just don't see the Nuggets being able to beat the lakers three games in a row. Take it for what its worth I saw Mcgee and Faried partying tuesday night after their win....could it be they're happy with they're accomplishments already? You know LA is going to show up after what happened on Tues.


I would highly doubt you would see Faried partying.... I'm not sure about McGee.  I do know that neither of these two guys drink at all.  Having personally met Kenneth a few months ago, I can tell you that is absolutely not what he is about.  This guy doesn't even celebrate his own accomplishments even when he record games - he'll say something like "I did okay".  "I know there was a lot of things I could to better".  The most humbling, kindest professional athlete I have ever met in my life is Kenneth Faried. 

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#46
Posted: 5/10/2012 5:16:27 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by hansonja:

Well, I've been waiting for thread like this for some time and finally it's on the board. I, as someone who has been watching and following Denver closely this season, totally agree with you. The only minus here in game 7 is Lakers' expirienece, but hey, Nuggets've got KARL. And on the other side there is Brown and also Bryant. Yes, many think that Bryant is an amazing clutch player. Yes, he might be but also consider how many nights that he has had this season with shooting under 30%. An he'll take every shot in the last few minutes, and if he has that kind of night there's the chance for Nuggets.


One thing that is missing is that coach Brown does not have the rapport with his players like Jackson did. 


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#47
Posted: 5/10/2012 5:20:28 PM
Just for laughs, I parlayed $10 on Nugs, Bulls, and Griz Series ML to win over 2k.

Very improbable sure, but not impossible. 
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#48
Posted: 5/10/2012 5:38:25 PM
That's why the Kobe will get all the shots in the world he wants. If Phil was here, that wouldn't be just like that.
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#49
Posted: 5/10/2012 9:41:24 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by Mikado:

Just for laughs, I parlayed $10 on Nugs, Bulls, and Griz Series ML to win over 2k.

Very improbable sure, but not impossible. 

Maybe I don't understand the bet because 200-1 sounds a lot more than generous.

 I missed Metta Elbow Peace on Conan. Did he throw one at him?

      

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duranizm
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#50
Posted: 5/10/2012 9:52:50 PM
i think LAL will win this series possibly, but Nuggets will be able to win this game, quite solid reasoning to me, thank you sharing your idea, GL
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