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Author: [College Basketball] Topic: How to make good bets in tournament
Cheerleader100
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Cheerleader100
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#1
Posted: 3/11/2012 4:01:16 PM
what kind of matchups do I look for to win, anybody wanna share a winning system for next weekend, or does anyone know how Vegas comes up with lines for teams that have not played any common apponents, any help would be great,
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#2
Posted: 3/11/2012 4:07:31 PM
Take all #1 seeds ML the first round
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#3
Posted: 3/11/2012 4:19:45 PM
a good start would be to use power ratings such as sagarin
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#4
Posted: 3/11/2012 4:25:31 PM
Once you fill out your bracket tonight, check the lines when they come out tomorrow and Tuesday, in places where you have a team winning in your bracket, but they are an underdog on the line (particularly in 3-14, 4-13, 5-12, 6-11 games) put in as your first pick on a parlay.

Next take a random number seed with the chalk and staple it the parlay. If you're feeling lucky, staple a 2nd one to it (like Kentucky).

Next, add Missouri to your parlay. They will cover any number.

After that, depending on your book, you can staple huge ML favorites like the 1 and 2 seeds just to give you an odds bump but if you bet small it

Similarly, look at 4-13/5-12 match ups where you feel like the favorite wins but don't know much about the underdog and just ML them.

Also, look at totals. Teams like Long Beach St., Baylor, Missouri, LIU are going to push totals way over, while teams like Wisconsin and USF are going to push totals way under. Under/USF and Over/LBSt might as well be locks in this tourney.

GL


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              Antilles
#5
Posted: 3/11/2012 4:26:23 PM
fade what the majority of people on this site say.
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#6
Posted: 3/11/2012 4:27:28 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by EX4life:

Take all #1 seeds ML the first round
MAN THAT IS GREAT
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JFen31
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#7
Posted: 3/11/2012 5:13:26 PM
You're going to see a lot of lines that "look" short. Good example last year was 12 seed Richmond as a 1-point dog against 5 seed Vanderbilt. Ditto two years ago when Murray State was catching +3.5 against Vandy.

But really, the tournament is all about matchups. Belmont was the trendy upset pick last year but too many people ignored the fact that Wisconsin was about the worst possible matchup they could have possibly faced. The "trendy" upset pick rarely comes through. Who had Morehead last year? Very, very few.
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#8
Posted: 3/11/2012 5:52:17 PM
I don't know about you guys but I am fading every Pac 12 team. I'm also looking to fade Indiana if the number is correct because I don't believe they are nearly as good away from Assembly Hall. 

Also I am looking for teams that have excellent neutral court records over the season. I believe Mizzou is undefeated on neutral floors this season. 

Last year Uconn was, I believe, undefeated last season on neutral courts and obviously went on to win it. 


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mtndew146
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#9
Posted: 3/11/2012 5:53:32 PM
Just bet the MSU Spartans every game and you will make tons of money.
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joboarder
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#10
Posted: 3/11/2012 5:56:39 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by EX4life:

Take all #1 seeds ML the first round

ohh sounds like we have us a pissed at the world North Carolina BOY......but they dont care about the tourny just the big picture...lets see how that works for ya 
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DeezyAZ81
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#11
Posted: 3/11/2012 6:07:32 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Ktrain:

I don't know about you guys but I am fading every Pac 12 team. I'm also looking to fade Indiana if the number is correct because I don't believe they are nearly as good away from Assembly Hall. 

Also I am looking for teams that have excellent neutral court records over the season. I believe Mizzou is undefeated on neutral floors this season. 

Last year Uconn was, I believe, undefeated last season on neutral courts and obviously went on to win it. 




So you will being fading one Pac-12 team in Colorado because that's the only team getting in from that conference
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#12
Posted: 3/11/2012 6:10:35 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by DeezyAZ81:



So you will being fading one Pac-12 team in Colorado because that's the only team getting in from that conference

You don't think California makes it? 
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#13
Posted: 3/11/2012 6:13:47 PM
bet on witchia state 
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#14
Posted: 3/11/2012 6:17:54 PM
it's a mixture

good PGs help
smart coaches that adjust from opp. to opp (see Smart, Shaka)
look for good 3 pt shooting vs bad 3 point defense
good rebounding teams
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DeezyAZ81
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#15
Posted: 3/11/2012 6:18:08 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Ktrain:


You don't think California makes it? 


Nope 1 bid league
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#16
Posted: 3/11/2012 6:27:26 PM
Bet UNLV out first round
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Skipbone
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#17
Posted: 3/11/2012 6:30:47 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by wtfe:

Once you fill out your bracket tonight, check the lines when they come out tomorrow and Tuesday, in places where you have a team winning in your bracket, but they are an underdog on the line (particularly in 3-14, 4-13, 5-12, 6-11 games) put in as your first pick on a parlay.

Next take a random number seed with the chalk and staple it the parlay. If you're feeling lucky, staple a 2nd one to it (like Kentucky).

Next, add Missouri to your parlay. They will cover any number.

After that, depending on your book, you can staple huge ML favorites like the 1 and 2 seeds just to give you an odds bump but if you bet small it

Similarly, look at 4-13/5-12 match ups where you feel like the favorite wins but don't know much about the underdog and just ML them.

Also, look at totals. Teams like Long Beach St., Baylor, Missouri, LIU are going to push totals way over, while teams like Wisconsin and USF are going to push totals way under. Under/USF and Over/LBSt might as well be locks in this tourney.

GL


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#18
Posted: 3/11/2012 6:33:27 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by DeezyAZ81:



Nope 1 bid league

I'm surprised Iona and Texas have made it. I thought Cal would have made it over those teams. 

Looks like a one bid league now. 

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#19
Posted: 3/11/2012 6:41:07 PM
Spoke to soon. Cal is in and gets USF in a play in game. 

I will definitely be looking to play USF if the line is right(I'm hoping laying under 5 pts.)
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DeezyAZ81
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#20
Posted: 3/11/2012 6:51:08 PM
You were right on Cal.  I didn't think there was anyway they'd get in.  I guess the play in game counts though.  I don't man South Florida isn't that good.  I think we will see the Big East is way overrated again this year. 
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#21
Posted: 3/11/2012 6:51:37 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by joboarder:


ohh sounds like we have us a pissed at the world North Carolina BOY......but they dont care about the tourny just the big picture...lets see how that works for ya 

lol whatttttt??? I'm not mad at all bro, just jokin around a little bit... although, if you had taken all the #1 seeds ML in the tournament, since it started, you would be undefeated haha... just jokin around, lighten up a little bit 
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#22
Posted: 3/11/2012 7:08:28 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by DeezyAZ81:

You were right on Cal.  I didn't think there was anyway they'd get in.  I guess the play in game counts though.  I don't man South Florida isn't that good.  I think we will see the Big East is way overrated again this year. 

I don't think the Big East is overrated at all. I think the Pac 12 downright sucked this year as well. I thought AZ would be a lot better than what they were. While I didn't have high hopes for UCLA, I didn't think the would lose to the likes of MTSU and LMU this year either. 

I think the Pac 12 is just downright awful. I'm just hoping the line makers disagree with me and give USF a good number for the Cal game. Especially since I can make it to Vegas Tuesday. 

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#23
Posted: 3/11/2012 9:42:21 PM
Look up my rightup ....Skin
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#24
Posted: 3/11/2012 9:50:34 PM
Take Big Ten getting points, fade Big Ten laying.
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