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Author: [MLB Betting] Topic: Preseason SABRmetrics Discussion
ChillyPepper send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#76
Posted: 3/5/2012 12:31:56 AM

si1ly - I have thought that with enough time, you could develop a spreadsheet which accounts into the probabilities the likelihood of which relievers will come into the game.  For instance, if a set-up man and a closer pitch both Tuesday and Wednesday, than they are both less likely to come into a Thursday afternoon game.  While this may only generate a slight disadvantage, it can impact an outcome nonetheless.

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#77
Posted: 3/5/2012 5:09:58 AM
G'day, Si1ly
Not sure if this interests you, but I change pythagoras by using winshare.
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#78
Posted: 3/7/2012 12:34:41 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by ChillyPepper:

si1ly - I have thought that with enough time, you could develop a spreadsheet which accounts into the probabilities the likelihood of which relievers will come into the game.  For instance, if a set-up man and a closer pitch both Tuesday and Wednesday, than they are both less likely to come into a Thursday afternoon game.  While this may only generate a slight disadvantage, it can impact an outcome nonetheless.


Seems like a lot of work for only a guess at which closer will be used.  So much of bullpen pitching is situational that there are too many variables that develop over the course of the game in question that a prediction like what you're suggesting just could never be accurate enough.  I would suggest just taking a cursory look at the closer situation before finalizing your bet just so you don't get stuck with a close game and a manager that refuses to go to his ace.
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#79
Posted: 3/21/2012 10:33:36 AM
Starting to get more and more excited about Baseball (as I continue to grind out a .500 season in the NBA).  Let's start talking about season win totals.  What teams do you all like to rise and fall this season?
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#80
Posted: 3/22/2012 5:37:30 PM

Thank you for this informative and thought-provoking thread.

Dodgers to win the NL West 6/1

 

 

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#81
Posted: 3/22/2012 11:11:40 PM

Si1ly:

Just came across your baseball thread.  Great stuff!  I just started wagering on baseball last May and by midseason was very fortunate to have doubled my bankroll.  Came across Bodio's threads about midseason as well and will miss them very much this year.

In my short lived gambling career I find wagering on baseball the easiest of all sports, but quite time consuming.  Hoping for another fun, profitable season and will be closely following you just as I have recently with basketball.

As always, thank very much for your insight and all of your hard work in trying to help others.  Best of luck for a very profitable MLB season!

 

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#82
Posted: 3/25/2012 9:10:01 PM

Si1ly,

I would love to learn more about pitchers and baseball in general. Can you tell me more about the stat FIT? And where I can get this information for each days games.

thanks

357

 

 

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#83
Posted: 3/26/2012 1:45:19 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by 357vegas:

Si1ly,

I would love to learn more about pitchers and baseball in general. Can you tell me more about the stat FIT? And where I can get this information for each days games.

thanks

357

 


You mean FIP I assume?

This is the equation for FIP = ((13*HR)+(3*(BB+HBP-IBB))-(2*K))/IP + constant

HR - Home Run
BB - Walk
HBP - Hit by Pitch
IBB - Intentional Walk
K - Strikeout
IP - Innings Pitched
Constant - About 3.20

Here's the basic story behind FIP.  About a dozen years ago it was discovered that pitchers had very little control year to year over how balls that went in play were fielded.  This is measured using BABIP (Batting Average on Balls In Play).  ERA is highly dependent upon this statistic since the amount of runs earned is a direct result of how well the defense behind a pitcher fields the balls that are put in play and handles the runners that get on base.  To avoid this problem, FIP was developed. 

If you take a look at the FIP formula, you'll see that the only metrics in it are home runs, walks and strikeouts.  These are also the only things a pitcher can really control (to a reasonable degree).  These metrics are also weighted in the formula to account for how much an impact they have on the score (Home Runs are multiplied by a factor of 13, Walks by a factor of 3, and Strikeouts by a factor of 2).  The constant is added to bring the metric onto the same scale as ERA.  This constant changes from year to year but usually comes in around 3.20.  You'll notice that some pitchers have FIP numbers below 3.20.  That means they have more weighted strikeouts than weighted walks plus weighted home runs.  FIP does a pretty good job measuring a pitchers skill whether they pitch for contact or pitch for strikeouts.  Contact pitchers have fewer strikeouts but they also have proportionately fewer walks and home runs.  Strikeout pitchers have more strikeouts but they're also more likely to walk a batter and give up a home run.  It's been found that FIP is a better predictor of future performance than ERA.

xFIP uses the same formula as FIP except it replaces the specific pitchers home run rate with an expected home run rate.  This is calculated by taking a league constant home run to fly ball ratio and multiplying that by the pitchers fly ball rate.  Since home run rates tend to fluctuate significantly from year to year, xFIP attempts to remove this variable by replacing it with a pitchers expected home run rate - a value that tends to be more constant over time.  xFIP is a slightly more refined version of FIP and it really is just a continuation of the pursuit to develop a number that is on the same scale as ERA that only looks at the variables a pitcher can control.

And what does FIP stand for you might ask?  Well it's an acronym that describes exactly what it sets out to accomplish.  Fielding Independent Pitching.  (x stands for Expected)

That's your lesson of the day on FIP!  I love talking about this stuff.  Feel free to ask any other questions you have about advanced baseball statistics.


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#84
Posted: 3/26/2012 1:48:08 AM
The two best sites on the web for advanced baseball statistics are:

fangraphs.com

baseball-reference.com
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#85
Posted: 3/26/2012 2:30:19 AM
Thank you very much.
I like improving pitchers. Can you have an Fip for say the last 3 starts and compare to season? Would that be a good gauge on a pitcher improving or not?

Thanks again
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#86
Posted: 3/26/2012 6:15:19 AM

HOME / AWAY  stats are useful..... I like to see how pitcher does at HOME or how are they at other teams ballpark....

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#87
Posted: 3/26/2012 6:47:56 AM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by jpero:



Are card counters in blackjack clueless?

They will lose money during shoes where the cards just are not in their favor. However, when the shoe does turn in their favor they bet larger than normal to take advantage of the statistical advantage. They may even lose those hands but the whole point of card counting is to take advantage and bet large when the deck is in the players' favor.

It works the same in baseball. Even when you expect an outcome to favor a certain side there is always a chance the other side may be the actual outcome.

Card Counting is not about taking advantage and bet big.. It`s about getting that slightest of slightest % against the "house" and even then you still have to get "lucky" to win that bet... Also There "INDICES" in Card Counting, That true or professional Counters master and understand when the Deck or Shoe is in the players favor.. Also Pro Counters use "INDICES" to perfection when to make a Large bet, Double Down or not to Double Double, when to take Insurance etc...a couple quick examples of using "INDICES"..   the deck is +4 or more you Double against a paint or 10 or ACE, Normally use just hit against a paint or 10.. ....  deck or shoe is +3 TAKE insurance, Thats the only time you should take insurance. avg players or majority of players wouldnt take insurance inless they have 20 or 19....

IMO card counting and betting baseball or "betting sports" general are 2 different subjects

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#88
Posted: 3/26/2012 9:28:17 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by 357vegas:

Thank you very much.
I like improving pitchers. Can you have an Fip for say the last 3 starts and compare to season? Would that be a good gauge on a pitcher improving or not?

Thanks again

I wouldn't narrow the focus that much using a metric like FIP.  Stats like this really need a lot of data to be statistically relevant.  Let's say a pitcher has three great starts in a row where he doesn't allow a home run and only gives up a few walks... his FIP number might be something like 0.8.  That doesn't really tell you that he's "improving", it just says he had three fantastic starts in a row.  You can find month by month FIP numbers and track to see how a pitcher is performing over longer spans of time.  One thing I like to do is track a pitchers FIP numbers in a line graph as the season progresses.  This will show you visually which direction a pitcher is trending.  Short answer is don't look at just a couple starts... the more data the better with stats like FIP.
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#89
Posted: 3/27/2012 3:04:44 AM
Sil1ly - do you have any thoughts on season win totals?

my 2 picks: tampa over 86.5 and detriot under 92.5. also thinking about nationals under 84
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#90
Posted: 3/27/2012 1:30:32 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by LiL_River333:

Card Counting is not about taking advantage and bet big.. It`s about getting that slightest of slightest % against the "house" and even then you still have to get "lucky" to win that bet... Also There "INDICES" in Card Counting, That true or professional Counters master and understand when the Deck or Shoe is in the players favor.. Also Pro Counters use "INDICES" to perfection when to make a Large bet, Double Down or not to Double Double, when to take Insurance etc...a couple quick examples of using "INDICES"..   the deck is +4 or more you Double against a paint or 10 or ACE, Normally use just hit against a paint or 10.. ....  deck or shoe is +3 TAKE insurance, Thats the only time you should take insurance. avg players or majority of players wouldnt take insurance inless they have 20 or 19....

IMO card counting and betting baseball or "betting sports" general are 2 different subjects





I understand that completely about BJ. I said statistical advantage in what I wrote. I should have clarified it is a fraction of a percentage point. However, that slight statistical advantage can make all the difference and as I noted you can play the cards perfect and still end up losing but that in no way should stop you from making the same play in the same situation later.

I never take insurance and I always tell people insurance is a house bet. But as you mention if the deck is +4 its in your favor to take advantage. Just like I always hit my 15/16 regardless even though the book says to surrender (that is the only difference I have from playing book strategy and its because people would always give me garbage about surrendering). However, if the deck is +4 I will stay on a 15/16 instead of hit because statistically a face is coming and that could potentially bust the dealer.

I dont see BJ/card counting as much different from betting baseball or sports, baseball in particular. In football you can take the best NFL team and play the worst NFL team 100 times and the best team will probably win 90% of the time. In baseball if you take the same its probably more like 65% the best team wins.

Baseball is all about analyzing the numbers and using the advanced metrics to make the most educated decision and finding plays that hold more value than the price they are at. You still might lose the play but the value/light statistical edge makes the play/decision
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#91
Posted: 3/29/2012 1:26:05 AM
Silly just a question. How do you cap Bullpens early in the season when there's not a ton of stats out there. Do you take each pitcher individually?
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#92
Posted: 3/29/2012 6:46:45 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by guil0000:

Silly just a question. How do you cap Bullpens early in the season when there's not a ton of stats out there. Do you take each pitcher individually?


First five inning bets are a good way to avoid this problem entirely.  There's no good way to handicap bullpens other than to look at last years stats.  If a bullpen added anybody significant (like Philadelphia) I inflate or deflate their stats accordingly.  Personally, I try and only bet on games in the first month of the season where I expect the pitchers to go 7 innings or more.  I pretty much just compare Team A's last season bullpen rank with Team B's to get a general idea who has the advantage in that department.  This eliminates as much of the bullpen variable as possible.  There's no good way to guess who will come in from the pen since decisions like this are entirely situational.  Bullpens are just one reason among many to work your way into the season slowly.
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#93
Posted: 3/30/2012 10:34:12 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by si1ly:


First five inning bets are a good way to avoid this problem entirely.  There's no good way to handicap bullpens other than to look at last years stats.  If a bullpen added anybody significant (like Philadelphia) I inflate or deflate their stats accordingly.  Personally, I try and only bet on games in the first month of the season where I expect the pitchers to go 7 innings or more.  I pretty much just compare Team A's last season bullpen rank with Team B's to get a general idea who has the advantage in that department.  This eliminates as much of the bullpen variable as possible.  There's no good way to guess who will come in from the pen since decisions like this are entirely situational.  Bullpens are just one reason among many to work your way into the season slowly.


AGREED.   

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#94
Posted: 4/4/2012 10:02:24 PM
Future:  New York Mets Under 72.5 wins (-110)  

I've got one season future bet for 2u.  I can't see the Mets breaking 70 wins this season.  Philly's rotation is sick.  The Nationals are no longer a joke.  The Braves will be solid as always.  The Marlins have potential to become a contender.  The best teams to fade are the last place teams in the toughest divisions.  This year there are two 5-team divisions with 4 tough competitors and one odd-man-out:  The AL East and the NL East.  The Mets are a more public team and in a less public division than Baltimore so there is slightly more value on their season under.  When you're rooting for teams to win all season to cash your bets, it's fun to have a future where you're rooting against a team every day.  This year that team for me is the Mets.  Good luck guys!
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#95
Posted: 4/20/2012 5:28:33 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by si1ly:

I disagree about IFFB.  Popping batters up is not a skill but rather a good result from a bad pitch.  In a broad sense, a pitcher is better if his velocity and movement induce a ball to move down after contact.  If a pitcher gives up an infield fly that means his velocity and movement was such that a hitter could send the ball up in the air.  This is more often than not a bad result.  An IFFB is caused because a hitter got too far underneath a hit-able pitch.  Again, this is not a pitching skill.  This principle is one of the driving fundamentals behind the advanced pitching metric SIERA.


like i said before iffb are good measure of a pitchers suck-sess

compare tim lincy 2012 to matt harrison

one can iffb the other cant.


the line drive rate is important too if they cannot pop em up
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#96
Posted: 4/20/2012 8:47:58 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by mainmanmainman2:



like i said before iffb are good measure of a pitchers suck-sess

compare tim lincy 2012 to matt harrison

one can iffb the other cant.


the line drive rate is important too if they cannot pop em up

Not enough data my friend.  And if you read my entire number crunching argument my belief that IFFB are bad stems from a much larger pitching philosophy.  Pitches that allow balls to get up in the air are worse than pitches that encourage balls to get hit on the ground.  The numbers back this up by a substantial margin.

Some pitchers can be successful with high IFFB rates, but I doubt anybody can sustain that for an entire career without sacrificing more doubles, triples and home runs along the way.
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#97
Posted: 4/21/2012 11:48:01 PM
skills...

phillip humber iffb up about 6 or 7 dudes today for a perfecto.
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