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Author: [MLB Betting] Topic: Is Jeter the most overrated player in baseball?
JoeKool send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: BookMaker |
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#76
Posted: 9/9/2010 1:03:54 PM

To all the kids who grew up in the steroid era.....................your numbers are supposed to decline after age 35.

Let's see if u think he's overated when he's making his speech in Cooperstown. 

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#77
Posted: 9/9/2010 1:24:42 PM
I have always said he no Michael Young of the Rangers
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#78
Posted: 9/9/2010 2:55:37 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by HutchEmAll:

And Sparky, there is no way in hell I'd pay him $25M for this year if his contract was up after last year.  Mauer gets $18M.  Pujols is looking at the $25M range.  He's not on the same planet as Pujols anymore. 

But you have to put his contract in Yankee World. If Mauer were a free agent...he'd be looking at $23-$25 million contracts from the Yankees because they can do that. If Pujols was a free agent when Tex was...the Yankees may have offered him an A-Rod type contract. No other team can give a lifetime achievement contract. The Yankees can. $25 million for the Yankees is a lot less for other teams.

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#79
Posted: 9/9/2010 3:06:21 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by jpero:



No only you would agree.

I said last year that Jeter will never have a year like he did last year and last year was an epiphany. He has never been a great defensive shortstop and has always been one of the worst defensive, everyday shortstops. He had a good defensive season last year but thats one year in a whole career. He is past his prime and is on the decline. There is no debating that. It will be wonderful to see the Yankees give him 20 mil a year to play below average shortstop.

They will also keep playing him there which will inevitably hurt the yankees as a team since he will be playing shortstop because of who he is and what he has done rather that what his now and what he is doing currently. It will negatively impact the Yankees defensively and make them that more vulnerable because an inferior defensive player will be playing the most important defensive position on the field.

Only you would say something like that. So the epiphany lasted 168? That's quite ridiculous don't you think?

And his 4 gold gloves means that someone out there believe he was a pretty damn good shortstop.

And if you've watched games this season...he hasn't hurt them there. If it was so terrible, they wouldn't be in 1st place.

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#80
Posted: 9/9/2010 3:09:26 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by JoeKool:

To all the kids who grew up in the steroid era.....................your numbers are supposed to decline after age 35.

Let's see if u think he's overated when he's making his speech in Cooperstown. 


They aren't saying his career was overrated, they are saying he's overrated right now at this time of the year.
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#81
Posted: 9/9/2010 3:19:36 PM
There is no denying he's having a poor season. He's a double play machine and he is a shell of last season. But if anyone thinks this is how the rest of his career will be...you're clearing just hoping for the worst for a New York Yankee.
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#82
Posted: 9/9/2010 3:38:38 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Sparky10191:

But you have to put his contract in Yankee World. If Mauer were a free agent...he'd be looking at $23-$25 million contracts from the Yankees because they can do that. If Pujols was a free agent when Tex was...the Yankees may have offered him an A-Rod type contract. No other team can give a lifetime achievement contract. The Yankees can. $25 million for the Yankees is a lot less for other teams.

I can't argue with that.  They are one of the few teams that can bid against themselves and get away with it. 

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#83
Posted: 9/9/2010 3:39:03 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Sparky10191:

Only you would say something like that. So the epiphany lasted 168? That's quite ridiculous don't you think?

And his 4 gold gloves means that someone out there believe he was a pretty damn good shortstop.

And if you've watched games this season...he hasn't hurt them there. If it was so terrible, they wouldn't be in 1st place.



Its name recognition. GG are a pretty worthless award, for the most part. Adam Jones should have won a GG in 2008, not in 2009.

The writers who vote for GG dont get to watch or see the players play every game. When coaches, statisticians, and scouts say Jeter is an awful defender... Well their assessments and stats to back it up speak volumes compared to some writers who vote for Jeter based on the name.

ONE SEASON out of a 16 season career is an epiphany. You can say anything you want but one season out of 16 seasons is uselss to use as a benchmark. There are 15 other seasons that say the opposite.

In 3 seasons he has been above average defensively.

2009: 6.4 (Runs above average based on UZR)
2002: 0.9
1998: 2.0

The other 12 seasons he has had a range of -0.3 to -23.0 with an average of -10.4

In the Years he won the GG he had a UZR/150

2004: -0.7
2005: -13.4
2006: -7.7
2009 6.4

2004: Julio Lugo had a 13.1 UZR/150 and Eckstien, Bobby Crosby, Tejada, Christian Guzman, and Valentine were all better defensively.

2005: Orlando Cabrera had a 24.1 UZR/150 and Juan Uribe and Julio Lugo were the only others with a + UZR/150 rating while Jeter was 2nd to last in the AL with Michael Young being the only regular who was worse.

2006: Alex Gonzalez had a 14.6 UZR/150 with Uribe, Tejada, Carlos Guillen and Michael Young being the only others with a + UZR/150. Once again Jeter was 2nd worst in the AL with only Jhonny Peralta being worse.

2009: Elvis Andrus had a 13.5 UZR/150 and Jeter rated 3rd in the AL. By far his best defensive year.

http://www.billjamesonline.net/fieldingbible/jeter.asp

You can read this article also, doubt you will.

Here is the last paragraph/conclusion:

But at the same time, I have to say that the case for Jeter as a Gold Glove quality shortstop is a dead argument in my mind. There is a lot we don’t know, and Derek Jeter could be a better shortstop than we have measured him as being for any of a dozen reasons. He is not a Gold Glove quality shortstop. He isn’t an average defensive shortstop. Giving him every possible break on the unknowns, he is still going to emerge as a below average defensive shortstop.
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#84
Posted: 9/9/2010 3:43:15 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Sparky10191:

There is no denying he's having a poor season. He's a double play machine and he is a shell of last season. But if anyone thinks this is how the rest of his career will be...you're clearing just hoping for the worst for a New York Yankee.


Umm not exactly. There are numerous studies and analysis that state when a player turns 32/33 they go into a decline. Some of the superstars starve off that decline till 34/35 but then age and decline catches up with them.

As a Yankee fan you are ignoring historical data and ignoring that older players are not the same players they once were and are due to decline. Jeter will never, ever, ever have a season close to what he did last year.

Does that mean he will only have seasons that he is having this year? No but he will not produce like he did last year and he will probably be a 285-290ish hitter the rest of his career. He might start hitting for a little more power to make up for the lower batting average, kind of like Damon and other veteran hitters have done towards the end of their careers.
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#85
Posted: 9/9/2010 5:18:03 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by jpero:



Its name recognition. GG are a pretty worthless award, for the most part. Adam Jones should have won a GG in 2008, not in 2009.

The writers who vote for GG dont get to watch or see the players play every game. When coaches, statisticians, and scouts say Jeter is an awful defender... Well their assessments and stats to back it up speak volumes compared to some writers who vote for Jeter based on the name.

ONE SEASON out of a 16 season career is an epiphany. You can say anything you want but one season out of 16 seasons is uselss to use as a benchmark. There are 15 other seasons that say the opposite.

In 3 seasons he has been above average defensively.

2009: 6.4 (Runs above average based on UZR)
2002: 0.9
1998: 2.0

The other 12 seasons he has had a range of -0.3 to -23.0 with an average of -10.4

In the Years he won the GG he had a UZR/150

2004: -0.7
2005: -13.4
2006: -7.7
2009 6.4

2004: Julio Lugo had a 13.1 UZR/150 and Eckstien, Bobby Crosby, Tejada, Christian Guzman, and Valentine were all better defensively.

2005: Orlando Cabrera had a 24.1 UZR/150 and Juan Uribe and Julio Lugo were the only others with a + UZR/150 rating while Jeter was 2nd to last in the AL with Michael Young being the only regular who was worse.

2006: Alex Gonzalez had a 14.6 UZR/150 with Uribe, Tejada, Carlos Guillen and Michael Young being the only others with a + UZR/150. Once again Jeter was 2nd worst in the AL with only Jhonny Peralta being worse.

2009: Elvis Andrus had a 13.5 UZR/150 and Jeter rated 3rd in the AL. By far his best defensive year.

http://www.billjamesonline.net/fieldingbible/jeter.asp

You can read this article also, doubt you will.

Here is the last paragraph/conclusion:

But at the same time, I have to say that the case for Jeter as a Gold Glove quality shortstop is a dead argument in my mind. There is a lot we don’t know, and Derek Jeter could be a better shortstop than we have measured him as being for any of a dozen reasons. He is not a Gold Glove quality shortstop. He isn’t an average defensive shortstop. Giving him every possible break on the unknowns, he is still going to emerge as a below average defensive shortstop.

What good is Andrus' UZR/150 if he had 22 errors? So what if he has more range if he's not making the play anyway?

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#86
Posted: 9/9/2010 5:24:13 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by jpero:



Umm not exactly. There are numerous studies and analysis that state when a player turns 32/33 they go into a decline. Some of the superstars starve off that decline till 34/35 but then age and decline catches up with them.

As a Yankee fan you are ignoring historical data and ignoring that older players are not the same players they once were and are due to decline. Jeter will never, ever, ever have a season close to what he did last year.

Does that mean he will only have seasons that he is having this year? No but he will not produce like he did last year and he will probably be a 285-290ish hitter the rest of his career. He might start hitting for a little more power to make up for the lower batting average, kind of like Damon and other veteran hitters have done towards the end of their careers.

Ichiro hasn't declined. Jeter isn't as good a hitter as Ichiro, I mean, who is, but he has yet to declined. Or is this .314 batting average season for him the decline? Jeter can still hit over .300 for the next few years. What's stopping him? Age? Some players faulter because of age...others do not. Jeter may not struggle, but people like you, hope he does.

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#87
Posted: 9/9/2010 5:34:46 PM
But once again...this is an absolutely meaningless conversation until next season. Just like any Orioles debate.
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#88
Posted: 9/9/2010 5:43:07 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Sparky10191:

What good is Andrus' UZR/150 if he had 22 errors? So what if he has more range if he's not making the play anyway?



See what you refuse to understand is most of Andrus errors are because he gets to balls JETER would never get to so he wouldnt even have had a chance to make a play on those balls. You are punishing Andrus for being a better fielder and getting to more balls and balls that Jeter cant get to.

The difference is Andrus gets to those balls and has a chance to make the play while Jeter never would have had the chance.

Its clear you didn't read that article I posted because it touches on this exact subject.
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#89
Posted: 9/9/2010 5:52:10 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Sparky10191:

Ichiro hasn't declined. Jeter isn't as good a hitter as Ichiro, I mean, who is, but he has yet to declined. Or is this .314 batting average season for him the decline? Jeter can still hit over .300 for the next few years. What's stopping him? Age? Some players faulter because of age...others do not. Jeter may not struggle, but people like you, hope he does.



Historical data and analysis says Jeter will decline and struggle. Every superstar comes to a decline.

Not everyone is Barry Bonds juicing at 34 years old and getting better at the end of their career instead of declining. You dont get younger as you age. You dont get quicker, stronger, able to heal faster/recover, you dont have the same reflexes, etc.

Instead you have to use positioning and Baseball IQ to make up for those declines in your game. Its much more difficult to catch up to 95 mph fastballs. Look at Manny Ramirez, he is on the decline and not the same player. All superstars get to this point. Stop trying to trick yourself into thinking Jeter is superman and will have a season like last year. This is not a knock against Jeter, this is just reality.
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#90
Posted: 9/9/2010 5:54:00 PM
Ichiro doesnt have nearly the wear and tear and innings played/games played that Jeter has.

Shortstop is also a more stressing position.
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#91
Posted: 9/9/2010 6:08:13 PM

the most over rated players are amoung the following categories

1) High average players who are otherwise worthless, meaning they have little power and rarely walk.

2) Plays a position that is easy to replace and easy to play, 1st base and the two corner outfield positions.

3) Became known as a star because of other factors besides adding to teams' ability to win games.

4) Has regressed from age or injury

Jeter is a shortstop, he doesn't fit all ot he requirements, Ichiro on the other hand does perfectly. 

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