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Author: [College Football] Topic: Week 6
KChingon send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
KChingon
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#1
Posted: 9/30/2012 10:36:54 PM
Last Week:  6 - 10, - 4 units
Season:  22 - 19 - 2 , +2.9 units

Week 5 was rough, and I probably forced a lot of bets where I didn't see anything great.  A few games jumped out at me right away this week.

Week 6
AFA (-10) vs. Navy- I know these two have played close games, but AFA is clearly the more talented team and Navy is awful.
Iowa State (+12) @ TCU (2 Units)- I don't get this line at all.  TCU has been far from stellar on offense since they lost their top RB (yes, I know, they've turned it over in the red zone 5 times), and Iowa State has a very solid defense and a ball-control offense.  I think they have a good chance at winning this outright.
Texas Tech (+5) vs. Oklahoma- Tech has won the last 3 in Lubbock and they won in Norman last year.  I know Tech's defense is not #1 in the country, but they are decent, and Oklahoma has been unimpressive this year.  I think it continues with this game.

Looks/Leans:
Clemson (-10.5) vs. GA Tech - I might wait to see if this one gets to single digits, but I will probably grab it if it doesn't look like that's going to happen.
East Carolina (+14) @ UCF
Indiana (+14.5) vs. Michigan State- I don't know that Michigan State can score enough to cover this.  
BC (-9.5) @ Army- BC was not bad at all this weekend, but Army has also looked a little better the last couple of games.
Northwestern (+3.5) @ PSU- PSU has looked strong lately, but Northwestern can score.
Texas A&M (-9.5) @ Mississippi- I might just wait and take this one in the first half, since Mississippi has the kind of offense that can make this look closer than it really will be.
Purdue (+3) vs. Michigan- I need to look more at how Purdue's defense can deal with Michigan's offense.
UTEP (-2) vs. SMU
North Texas (+11.5) @ Houston

quote
KChingon send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
KChingon
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Posted: 10/3/2012 11:49:28 PM
Add:

Utah (+14.5) vs. USC- USC hasn't shown that they can cover this against anyone this side of Hawaii.
Texas A&M (-12) @ Ole Miss- I will also bet the 1H in this one, which has worked well for me with TAMU against SMU and Arkansas.
Purdue (+3) vs. Michigan (-105)
Southern Miss (+10) vs. Boise State- Boise tried to lose to New Mexico last week and I don't see an AM road game as the time to get back on track.
Marshall (+4) vs. Tulsa- This should be a track meet, and I'll take the home dog that has shown it can take advantage of a weak opposing D.
Marshall vs. Tulsa (Over 69.5)
Rice @ Memphis (Over 62.5)

I also like Rice and Clemson ATS, as well as the Texas Tech money line, but I am waiting for more favorable movement.  I'm also looking at ISU/TCU under 43.  I think that game is going to be a mess, I just don't know if I can pull the trigger.

Any thoughts are welcome. 

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HMC-13 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
HMC-13
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Posted: 10/4/2012 12:47:44 AM
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capdatazz send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
capdatazz
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#4
Posted: 10/4/2012 1:19:33 AM
Like your picks and analysis will be on a few of these myself

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KChingon send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
KChingon
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Posted: 10/4/2012 10:30:53 PM
HMC, capdatazz, 

Add:

Rice (-6) @ Memphis (-105) (2 units)-  Rice has their starting QB back after an injury to his non-throwing shoulder kept him out last week.  Memphis is still really bad.  The line might get a bit lower by game time, but under a TD at -105 is nice.  I think they win this by 14+.  
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KChingon send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
KChingon
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Posted: 10/6/2012 1:13:21 PM
Add:

Texas A&M (-7) @ Ole Miss (1H)
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KChingon send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
KChingon
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Posted: 10/6/2012 1:14:09 PM
GL, all!  Time to go tailgate and (hopefully) get paid!
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