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Author: [College Basketball] Topic: ***GWarner27's 1/28 NCAAB Picks (51-36 58.6% YTD)***
GWarner27
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GWarner27
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#1
Posted: 1/27/2013 10:19:25 PM

+11.90

Dogs 35-29 +3.53
Faves 15-7 +7.37
Over 0-0 +0.00
Under 0-0 +0.00
1st Half 1-0 +1.00
Halftimes 0-0 +0.00
Team Totals 0-0 +0.00
Buybacks: 0 +0.00

Posted records:
2006-07: 68-70 (49.3%) -1.979
2007-08: 153-142-4 (51.9%) -4.141
2008-09: 144-142-2 (50.3%) -7.657
2009-10: 141-136-4 (50.9%) +1.294
2010-11: 114-79-4 (59.1%) +31.085
2011-12: 91-61-3 (59.9%) +23.88

Futures:
2010-11: 2-6-1 -1.08
2011-12: 2-2 +0.529
2012-13: 0-0 +0.00
Florida to win Championship (+1400)

November 15-11 +3.06

December 17-13 +2.77

January 19-12 +6.07

February 0-0 +0.00

March 0-0 +0.00

April 0-0 +0.00

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GWarner27
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#2
Posted: 1/27/2013 10:58:23 PM
SU winners: 18
OT record: 5-0
Record on the open: 25-17
Winners because of the Open: 3
Losers because of the Open: 1 

Notes:
-Gary Harris was awesome and Sparty hit almost every open 3pt shot they attempted to hang around til the end. Just too many points to give Tom Izzo, though a lot of 50-50 calls went IU's way
-Indiana still plays zero defense and they used a 2-3 zone a lot today with Jordy Hulls and Yogi up top allowing any and all entry passes. It was so easy to break, IU will lose early in the tournament if they foolishly play that D
-Tough loss again for Iowa, I think they are a tournament team but they are going to make it tough to let them in with all these L's
-UL/GTown was exactly what I hoped for when I bought the tickets. The Verizon Center was pretty well attended (it was their biggest game of the year I think) and louder than expected. Bars in Clarendon were pretty live Saturday night too

Guesses:
UL 10.5
KU 6
MARQ 12

leans:
WVU +9

on the radar:
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#3
Posted: 1/28/2013 1:27:47 AM
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#4
Posted: 1/28/2013 7:58:24 AM
Good weekend!
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#5
Posted: 1/28/2013 1:07:05 PM
Gmoney, I'm a little curious. I also had Lousiville 9.5, they are a full 4 points off your guess while KU is only 2. Obviously, I got high respect here, just wondering if UL might work it's way to a lean as I'm thinking about grabbing early line.


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TRAIN69
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#6
Posted: 1/28/2013 2:07:44 PM
I dont think Pitt has the guard play to handle the Ville. Also like the O123 ....Should be some easy baskets and lots of foul shooting.


GW
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              Antilles
#7
Posted: 1/28/2013 2:23:24 PM
gl gw
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GWarner27
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#8
Posted: 1/28/2013 2:24:13 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by duceman:

Gmoney, I'm a little curious. I also had Lousiville 9.5, they are a full 4 points off your guess while KU is only 2. Obviously, I got high respect here, just wondering if UL might work it's way to a lean as I'm thinking about grabbing early line.



I like UL more than most people right now but I thought early in the year that they were really flawed with two tiny guards who can't shoot. Smith is better than Siva, but it doesn't matter if they can't force turnovers because they're just so small. Similar to the Yogi-Hulls zone issue yesterday, they hurt the zone because their speed isn't enough to make up for the lack of height and then you consider the awful shots both of them take (Siva is why Syracuse won to start this whole slide).

Bottom line for me is they're just not worth laying more than a possession with based on current form and when you consider how deep Pitt is throughout it's roster. It's not filled with studs, but they can throw a lot of bodies at you while UL really can't (I also hate laying more than 3 almost as a rule)
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GWarner27
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#9
Posted: 1/28/2013 2:27:58 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by TRAIN69:

I dont think Pitt has the guard play to handle the Ville. Also like the O123 ....Should be some easy baskets and lots of foul shooting.


GW

Woodall is great, but they will be relying on a freshman with him and that can't be comfortable. Gotta think UL tries to play the pace game to get smith & Siva off the schnide. All you need is a reasonably close game and the fouls will come. I guess an under fear would be Pitt mucking the game up from the start and trying to play the game in the 40s

Mich, at, David-- thanks 
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GWarner27
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#10
Posted: 1/28/2013 2:29:06 PM
For Tuesday...

Locked in:
Mississippi ML (-110) vs. Kentucky

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#11
Posted: 1/28/2013 2:30:45 PM

G -- sounds like the game was a blast.

In other news,

I think this is a big week for Oklahoma.

Away game @ Baylor on Wednesday where they should be getting around 7-9 points...

Home game vs. Kansas State on Saturday after losing to them in K. State...

The Wednesday/Thursday games actually look quite enticing

Should be a solid week

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#12
Posted: 1/28/2013 2:43:31 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by GWarner27:


Woodall is great, but they will be relying on a freshman with him and that can't be comfortable. Gotta think UL tries to play the pace game to get smith & Siva off the schnide. All you need is a reasonably close game and the fouls will come. I guess an under fear would be Pitt mucking the game up from the start and trying to play the game in the 40s

Mich, at, David-- thanks 

Robinson is about as solid of a freshman you can get. Plays beyond his years. I respected Louisville guards a lot more before they got beat by Villanova and Georgetown. Both with decent, but not above average guards. 
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#13
Posted: 1/28/2013 8:49:40 PM
Hey G, end up pulling the trigger on WV?
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GWarner27
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#14
Posted: 1/28/2013 8:49:48 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by TurnstoneMoney:


Robinson is about as solid of a freshman you can get. Plays beyond his years. I respected Louisville guards a lot more before they got beat by Villanova and Georgetown. Both with decent, but not above average guards. 

Wasn't saying he was awful, just never know how freshman will respond to tough environments and pressure defense no matter how solid they are. If you can force smith & Siva to shoot jumpers they are more than beatable 
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GWarner27
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#15
Posted: 1/28/2013 9:16:47 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Atjohnson1:

Hey G, end up pulling the trigger on WV?

No sir, just decided to watch. Would rather not push at this point when things are moving right 
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#16
Posted: 1/28/2013 9:41:36 PM
Fine by me. Mclemore is a top five pick. What Cal thought he was getting with Archie Goodwin.
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GWarner27
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#17
Posted: 1/28/2013 11:24:15 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Atjohnson1:

Fine by me. Mclemore is a top five pick. What Cal thought he was getting with Archie Goodwin.


Cal got the last laugh winning a ship while McLemore sat ineligible at home in Lawrence, but i see your point...

Tuesday guesses:
CLEM 6
UVA 2.5
TENN 11
tOSU 4.5
WICH 14.5
UNI 2
Ole Miss 5
MINN 17
UNC 2.5
UNLV 16.5

leans:
BC +5

on the radar:
UVA -3

locked in:
Mississippi ML (-110) vs. Kentucky
-Ole Miss has been a team I planned to back all season, just haven't done it and actually lost fading them in the Diamond Head when they somehow blew out Hawaii then let them off the hook only to extend the lead late and ruin my Christmas. Anywho, Kentucky goes around the SEC with a target on its chest and this year they're not the top team (Florida) nor are they 2nd best. I think Ole Miss is that squad and somehow they were under the radar enough to get a pick 'em at home? Sorry, but The Tad is going to be rocking and matchups are horrendous for UK. Not only are they extremely young (as usual), but Wiltjer normally is a huge bonus for them because he's a stretch 4. While Murphy Holloway won't get to play inside where he thrives, he is an athletic specimen who will torture the UK frontline which I doubt will have Willie Cauley-Stein. So we're looking at probably the two best shotblockers in the country neutralizing each other and then a team of youngsters on the road in a raucous environment against the most prolific 3pt shooter not named Kevin Pangos. Big mistake on this one, trap or not I thought it'd come short at 5 so I didn't even think about grabbing pick 'em.

...strongly considered UVA -1.5 at the open, but couldn't do it
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GWarner27
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#18
Posted: 1/29/2013 11:33:45 AM
Updated leans:
BC +4.5
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#19
Posted: 1/29/2013 11:43:34 AM
Still like Miss at -2.5? I am guessing yes, ML is only -145 so maybe I should go that route? Thanks for all your work!
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SLIK 1
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#20
Posted: 1/29/2013 12:15:50 PM
Gl
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#21
Posted: 1/29/2013 2:04:44 PM
Nice grab at -110. Good luck, G.
Posted using a mobile device.
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#22
Posted: 1/29/2013 5:06:06 PM
I know it's a typical let down game for NCS and Virginia plays good at home but giving the pack 4.5? I will bite on that.
Also G money. curious to your thought on Nebaska +19 seems like an awfully big number for a team that can hang in the big 10.
Good luck bro.
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GWarner27
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#23
Posted: 1/29/2013 5:18:54 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by hoont83:

Still like Miss at -2.5? I am guessing yes, ML is only -145 so maybe I should go that route? Thanks for all your work!

Sorry, been a crazy day at work. I only list ML (-110) because I've had better luck doing that than writing pick 'em. I would not endorse doing MLs in this sport at all unless you're mixing it with a dog ATS.

While I hate laying points, anything below 3 would be a play tonight so I would try to get there if you can without buying the half

Slik, Jose-- thanks
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GWarner27
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#24
Posted: 1/29/2013 5:43:51 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by duceman:

I know it's a typical let down game for NCS and Virginia plays good at home but giving the pack 4.5? I will bite on that.
Also G money. curious to your thought on Nebaska +19 seems like an awfully big number for a team that can hang in the big 10.
Good luck bro.

Minnesota off b2b losses isn't exactly something I want to fight against when they're up against a team that normally relies on height and has no advantage here in this one. Tim miles is great and will likely slow this game down at every opportunity, which seemed like a problem in the past two Minnesota L's...

I was eyeing UVA at 1.5, just not convinced with them though NCSU is that team we expected: great offensively but can be had on the road. Not enough for me to consider NCSU, but definitely too much to play the Hoos
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