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# Would you play a 5 game chase system?

 Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: Would you play a 5 game chase system? JEFFTHEHAT PM JEFFTHEHATJoined: Aug 2010Posts: 3843 Banned #1Posted: 6/20/2013 5:45:16 PMIf so how would you do it? bruin95 PM bruin95Joined: Mar 2001Posts: 378 Prospect #2Posted: 6/22/2013 1:46:58 AMI like to eat, so no. JEFFTHEHAT PM JEFFTHEHATJoined: Aug 2010Posts: 3843 Banned #3Posted: 6/22/2013 11:29:43 AMQUOTE Originally Posted by bruin95: I like to eat, so no. Fair enough, but this system has never lost! azranger PM azrangerJoined: Aug 2008Posts: 68 Prospect #4Posted: 7/20/2013 12:56:40 PMYet--you didn't finish your sentence. ALL SYSTEMS LOSE at one point-as far as back tested: I can go back and pick any sport and say that my system won over that time period. This is not a discussion when it comes to systems, it is a mathematical fact.  When human error is factored (ie sports are people playing against people) you can uncover statistical advantages or variances but never guarantee an outcome (like 1 win in five games).  Again, not trying to argue with you but ANYONE with a rudimentary understanding of statistics and probability will tell you (barring outright cheating by players or officials) nothing is a certainty.  So, no, I would never play a chase system. DegenGamble PM DegenGambleJoined: Oct 2011Posts: 1089 Veteran #5Posted: 7/20/2013 1:58:56 PMI agree with you Azranger - but one thing that intrigues me and I'm not math guy in any way, is I read an article - cant remember by who - but the thing you have to remember about any type of betting is it based over time any system or model will l Posted using a mobile device. DegenGamble PM DegenGambleJoined: Oct 2011Posts: 1089 Veteran #6Posted: 7/20/2013 2:06:18 PMI agree with you Azranger - but one thing that intrigues me and I'm not math guy in any way, is I read an article - cant remember by who - but the thing you have to remember about any type of betting is it is based over time and any system or model will lose over time unless you have a positive EV that overcomes the vig. However, if you think of sports betting as a closed loop meaning a finite number of bets - I think systems can be profitable. I could be wrong but it makes sense to meFor example - lets say over 50,000 games a model is break even. You might say that model is not profitable - but what is it would take you 2 lifetimes to bet 50,000 games using that model. So really as long as your system is profitable over the last 10 years can you really say eventually it will lose - sure it will but will you be alive when that happens. Posted using a mobile device. JEFFTHEHAT PM JEFFTHEHATJoined: Aug 2010Posts: 3843 Banned #7Posted: 7/20/2013 3:44:58 PMQUOTE Originally Posted by azranger: Yet--you didn't finish your sentence. ALL SYSTEMS LOSE at one point-as far as back tested: I can go back and pick any sport and say that my system won over that time period. This is not a discussion when it comes to systems, it is a mathematical fact.  When human error is factored (ie sports are people playing against people) you can uncover statistical advantages or variances but never guarantee an outcome (like 1 win in five games).  Again, not trying to argue with you but ANYONE with a rudimentary understanding of statistics and probability will tell you (barring outright cheating by players or officials) nothing is a certainty.  So, no, I would never play a chase system. Thx for your opinion that's what makes the world go around a difference in opinions. I do agree that YES this system has a small probability of losing but even if it does the system(s) will always make money. I can almost with a 100% guarantee say that playing to win 1unit per game for a season NO handicapper I know can win more units in a season than using one or a combination of systems used here,especially my all DOG chase where your exposure is way less than most. Good luck with your picks sir and may we all win! stickbit PM stickbitJoined: Jan 2008Posts: 419 Prospect #8Posted: 7/20/2013 6:11:17 PMQUOTE Originally Posted by JEFFTHEHAT: If so how would you do it?  I would look at the gm 4 and gm 5 losses and if they are minimal and the system doesn't have a ton of juice I would run it with labby line(s).  Labby kicks the garbage out of martingale everytime...much better to grind away and accept/plan for inevitable losses rather than try to find the perfect system.  Just my 2 cents. NoSoLucky PM NoSoLuckyJoined: Nov 2012Posts: 99 Prospect #9Posted: 7/21/2013 3:11:38 AMI would play a 5 game chase with a separate unit size in mind. If my normal unit size is \$100 I would lower it to \$30 for plays on such a system which would increase the amount of units I have in the bank.Yes, I would not win much money, but if the system is 100% over many years my risk is minimal if it happens to fail once I try to use it.Little money is still money. NoSoLucky PM NoSoLuckyJoined: Nov 2012Posts: 99 Prospect #10Posted: 7/21/2013 3:12:53 AMI take it your working on a 5 game chase system Jeff
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