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Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: Would you play a 5 game chase system?
JEFFTHEHAT
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JEFFTHEHAT
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#1
Posted: 6/20/2013 5:45:16 PM
If so how would you do it? 
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bruin95 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Station |
bruin95
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#2
Posted: 6/22/2013 1:46:58 AM
I like to eat, so no.
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JEFFTHEHAT
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JEFFTHEHAT
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#3
Posted: 6/22/2013 11:29:43 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by bruin95:

I like to eat, so no.

Fair enough, but this system has never lost!
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azranger send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#4
Posted: 7/20/2013 12:56:40 PM
Yet--you didn't finish your sentence. ALL SYSTEMS LOSE at one point-as far as back tested: I can go back and pick any sport and say that my system won over that time period. This is not a discussion when it comes to systems, it is a mathematical fact.  When human error is factored (ie sports are people playing against people) you can uncover statistical advantages or variances but never guarantee an outcome (like 1 win in five games).  Again, not trying to argue with you but ANYONE with a rudimentary understanding of statistics and probability will tell you (barring outright cheating by players or officials) nothing is a certainty.  So, no, I would never play a chase system.
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#5
Posted: 7/20/2013 1:58:56 PM
I agree with you Azranger - but one thing that intrigues me and I'm not math guy in any way, is I read an article - cant remember by who - but the thing you have to remember about any type of betting is it based over time any system or model will l
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#6
Posted: 7/20/2013 2:06:18 PM
I agree with you Azranger - but one thing that intrigues me and I'm not math guy in any way, is I read an article - cant remember by who - but the thing you have to remember about any type of betting is it is based over time and any system or model will lose over time unless you have a positive EV that overcomes the vig. However, if you think of sports betting as a closed loop meaning a finite number of bets - I think systems can be profitable. I could be wrong but it makes sense to me

For example - lets say over 50,000 games a model is break even. You might say that model is not profitable - but what is it would take you 2 lifetimes to bet 50,000 games using that model. So really as long as your system is profitable over the last 10 years can you really say eventually it will lose - sure it will but will you be alive when that happens.
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JEFFTHEHAT
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JEFFTHEHAT
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#7
Posted: 7/20/2013 3:44:58 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by azranger:

Yet--you didn't finish your sentence. ALL SYSTEMS LOSE at one point-as far as back tested: I can go back and pick any sport and say that my system won over that time period. This is not a discussion when it comes to systems, it is a mathematical fact.  When human error is factored (ie sports are people playing against people) you can uncover statistical advantages or variances but never guarantee an outcome (like 1 win in five games).  Again, not trying to argue with you but ANYONE with a rudimentary understanding of statistics and probability will tell you (barring outright cheating by players or officials) nothing is a certainty.  So, no, I would never play a chase system.

Thx for your opinion that's what makes the world go around a difference in opinions. I do agree that YES this system has a small probability of losing but even if it does the system(s) will always make money. I can almost with a 100% guarantee say that playing to win 1unit per game for a season NO handicapper I know can win more units in a season than using one or a combination of systems used here,especially my all DOG chase where your exposure is way less than most. Good luck with your picks sir and may we all win! 
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stickbit send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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#8
Posted: 7/20/2013 6:11:17 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by JEFFTHEHAT:

If so how would you do it? 

I would look at the gm 4 and gm 5 losses and if they are minimal and the system doesn't have a ton of juice I would run it with labby line(s).  Labby kicks the garbage out of martingale everytime...much better to grind away and accept/plan for inevitable losses rather than try to find the perfect system.  Just my 2 cents.
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NoSoLucky
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#9
Posted: 7/21/2013 3:11:38 AM
I would play a 5 game chase with a separate unit size in mind. If my normal unit size is $100 I would lower it to $30 for plays on such a system which would increase the amount of units I have in the bank.

Yes, I would not win much money, but if the system is 100% over many years my risk is minimal if it happens to fail once I try to use it.

Little money is still money.
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NoSoLucky
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#10
Posted: 7/21/2013 3:12:53 AM
I take it your working on a 5 game chase system Jeff
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