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Author: [College Football] Topic: Bowl secrets-check me out in 45 days...
Skipster send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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#26
Posted: 12/6/2012 1:32:54 AM
as an FSU "fan," I guess you'd say--although I find it harder and harder to give a crap the older I get--I like NIU myself.  That said, FSU has been year-after-year the most dependable team ATS in bowl games.  Bowden lost some big games, sure, but he also won a vast majority of them in bowls.  In the lesser bowls, he dominated.  Fisher was on his staff for the last couple years and is 2-0 ATS himself.  The injuries FSU suffered didn't help the cause this year, BTW.

Just an FYI.

Oregon's D was running on fumes due to injuries as the season wore down.  Would think K St will have some chances to score here.  Think Snyder will find the holes because there are lots of them.
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#27
Posted: 12/6/2012 3:33:44 AM

Skip-I wasn't as much saying FSU did poorly in bowls, just how motivated they will be for NIU in this one...they blew their season at home vs Florida, this can't make up for that and I don't think Bowden ever played a school like this in a big bowl...every player and I mean including the freakin equipment mgrs at NIU will be looking at this like the Superbowl. Focus leads to less turnovers usually, trick plays, again see Boise St vs Oklahoma....anyone neutral in the crowd will be on their side too...it's a lot to overcome...

I'll take my chances with the points anytime in this scenario...

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#28
Posted: 12/6/2012 10:42:17 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Hoyasaxa:

Sorry-one more...the big one-

ND +9.5 and growing so I'll wait til I get at least 10...very evenly matched teams IMO...this isn't your 2011 Alabama team...I really doubt Nick expected to win it all with this group this year...maybe next year but he'll take it. ND doesn't make mistakes, can stop the Tide and can find openings with careful drives...oh and their FG kicker hit a 52 yd er vs USC and they'll have plenty of fans and emotion in this one...GL!

i appreciate your write ups and time, just curious if you were worried about the serious reverse line movement in the bama/ND game?? opened at 7.5   2/3 of the bets are coming in on nd yet the line is skyrocketing.......

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The_BigDog
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#29
Posted: 12/6/2012 12:18:13 PM

I think bowl games require more than just normal matchup analysis. That is what I take from your post... I've always tried to:

FADE THE TEAM that is the most dissappointed in their season and the bowl they are playing in. It's GOLDEN. (The more chalk they lay, the more you play)

FADE THE TEAM that lost their last game. Either it was an important game to them and they got beat, and are disappointed and disillusioned OR it was not important and they had already given up....

Look to fade a team with coach that left if you KNOW that assistants are going with old coach to new school.

PLAY the team(LOAD up) if the assistant is the NEW HC

 

 

 

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#30
Posted: 12/7/2012 12:30:10 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by NevadaGamer:

In what world is Oregon overrated?? How are they overrated? They have one loss in OT against Stanford and responded to that by crushing Oregon State in the Civil War forcing 6 turnovers. Their offense is light years ahead of Kstate in each and every way. They run and pass the ball much better. Their offense actually plays at a faster pace than Baylor which took them to the woodshed and Oregon is 5 times better than Baylor. Statistically Kstate gives up 21 pts per game and Oregon gives up 22 HOWEVER if you follow Oregon, Kelly pulled his starters in 8 of his games after the first half. 75 of opponents points were scored in garbage time. If you take that into account Oregon's defense gives up around 12 pts per game. Also Chip Kelly is as good if not better coach than Snyder he has built this team for years and this is his best team yet. 4th straight BCS bowl while Kstate is in its 1st. Oregon is extremely deep on defense and will finally be healthy on the defensive side of the ball. They like Kstate force turnovers and this game looks like a mirror image of the Baylor/Kstate game except Oregon will pour it on. Oregon lost weeks ago so no letdown as they knew they lost their shot for the NC a long time ago. Kstate doesnt have a Stanford type of Dline not even CLOSE. Too many playmakers on both sides of the ball for Oregon.

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#31
Posted: 12/7/2012 12:44:10 AM

Trader Joe-re; ND reverse line movement...so you think sharps are on Ala? I respect this situation but I really think this Ala team is just not near their best while ND will not give them free points....I hope it goes past 10...GL

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#32
Posted: 12/7/2012 1:20:40 AM

Coaching situations update:

Wisconsin sees their coach leave and brings in Barry A comes back from the luxury box to revive the glory days of the 90's...is that a good thing?

Texas gives Mack a vote of Confidence...guess they're not selling ticets fast to the Alamo bowl...

What I hate more and more is poorly coached teams-you saw the Raiders tonight blow any chance of covering due to stupid penalties, trying to run a kick-off from 8 yds deep in the end zone...I can't bet on USC and Texas mainly for this reason-sooner or later, stupidity will burn you....

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#33
Posted: 12/7/2012 7:13:34 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Hoyasaxa:

Trader Joe-re; ND reverse line movement...so you think sharps are on Ala? I respect this situation but I really think this Ala team is just not near their best while ND will not give them free points....I hope it goes past 10...GL

I got bama at  9 so if it does hit 11 i may take a middle and hope for a ten point bama win  BOL to you

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#34
Posted: 12/7/2012 8:53:02 PM

Additional Play Ucla Pick vs Baylor

Major advantges here with Ucla-emotionally-they were not predicted to be this good, beat USC, almost make the Rose Bowl, etc. Mora is a legit coach and he did a great job maturing them. Much better Defense-they stopped some very good ones relatively speaking. Baylor had their emotional season last year.

Game is 100 miles away. Ucla will easily score on Baylor but stop them just enough to win by at least 7, maybe more. They haven't been in decent bowl in a long time...

GL

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#35
Posted: 12/27/2012 12:37:22 AM

well here we go boys...got the presents out of the way, family took my leftover prime rib but I'm ready to roll...and they already pushed my Ucla play up to -3 and I don't care because we know now, RG111 was worth 21 or more...Ucla is very happy to be in this game and is focused on moving up....this is a team that beat Nebraska, USC and almost Stanford...their D is definitely better...

GL

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#36
Posted: 12/27/2012 5:38:15 AM
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#37
Posted: 12/27/2012 7:07:35 AM

Stanford's  D gave up 194 yds to Franklin and 3 TD's in Pac 12 championship! What makes you think that Monte Ball doesn't get 200+ and 3+ TD's? Wisky rolls on the ground with Huge unathletic corn fed 330 lb boys and Monte Ball. Stanford O  ranks 85th in country in a DEFENSELESS LEAGUE while Wisky ranks 62 without a passing attack.Stanford D ranks 21 st Wisky 13th! 

You scored 13 against Washington with 2 weeks to prepare and 13 against ND?

BARRY ALVAREZ brings a lot to the table!!! Stanford gets pounded in the trenches and Wisky ML VICTORY 21-13

   

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