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Author: [College Basketball] Topic: Second Round NCAA Plays
JFen31
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JFen31
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#51
Posted: 3/18/2012 6:57:43 PM
Ohio +2 vs. South Florida (1.5 units)
Back to the well with the Bobcats who were my biggest play of Round 1. Obviously, everyone is (rightfully) impressed by South Florida's stifling halfcourt defense. They rendered Temple's normally efficient attack helpless with tremendous weakside help and an ability to reach shooters on the perimeter. It was essentially the same gameplan they used against Cal in the play-in game. But Ohio brings a totally different dimension from what USF has seen in the previous two games. Difference number one is pressure; both Cal and Temple are strictly halfcourt teams who don't force turnovers and are content to rely on good rotations and fundamentals. And, in the two games prior to the tournament, USF faced Notre Dame and Villanova, another pair of strictly halfcourt defensive teams. Ohio forces turnovers at an alarmingly high rate - 2nd in the country in this category behind only VCU. They don't bring the same "Havoc" philosophy as the Rams, but it's a similar commitment to making offenses uncomfortable and preventing them from running their sets. At the other end of the court, D.J. Cooper gives Ohio something neither Cal nor Temple possesses: a player capable of breaking down defenses. He will be enormous in finding cracks in the USF defense and either finishing at the rim or kicking out to shooters. Kellogg, Taylor, Offutt, and Cooper are all highly-capable shooters. USF hasn't seen pressure in a few weeks, and with the lack of prep time off of two wins in three days, Ohio holds a good chance of speeding up the plodding Bulls and making them play at a faster than desired pace. If this happens, Ohio wins going away.


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#52
Posted: 3/18/2012 7:05:38 PM
Agreed...gl JFen
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#53
Posted: 3/18/2012 7:13:37 PM

Hey JFen,

Which way would you lean in the Kansas game??

 

Thanks

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#54
Posted: 3/18/2012 7:14:35 PM

Ok my friend I like the analysis and lets hope for an up tempo game. I got it at 3 and X is at 4.5 bought a half to 5 on Lehigh. I had to sweat that O/U out in the Iowa Oregon game and reading your analysis on Lehigh it made sense to me to play Florida after that huge win for Norfolk so I appreciate that. BOL on Ohio.

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#55
Posted: 3/18/2012 7:46:50 PM
buy out at half time ohio  has not seen defense like this..............
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#56
Posted: 3/18/2012 7:55:07 PM
love the write ups, exellent job,keep em comming good luck
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JFen31
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#57
Posted: 3/18/2012 9:29:24 PM
Cincinnati vs. Florida State Under 128.5 (1 unit)

All for the night. Good luck everyone.
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#58
Posted: 3/18/2012 9:30:24 PM
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#59
Posted: 3/18/2012 9:32:06 PM
Thanks my friend for the Ohio pick definately a great win for the school which I like to see. Now if somehow I can have Purdue cover and catch the over it could be a very positive day. Thanks again for your help you always have time to answer my questions which I truely appreciate. Hope all is well at school read awhile back you were going to go to Penn St. after this year?
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#60
Posted: 3/18/2012 9:35:28 PM

my book has the the o/u line of the fsu game 126.5. still thinking under?

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#61
Posted: 3/18/2012 9:43:46 PM
Great call on Ohio.
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#62
Posted: 3/18/2012 10:28:26 PM
Now if you look at the answer you gave me on the X game you will see how accurate you are. Everything you wrote in that article  was 100% correct. I think instead of dreaming about woman at night you have basketballs flying around in your unconscious mind.
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JFen31
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#63
Posted: 3/18/2012 10:33:58 PM
3/18 Final Card
Lehigh vs. Xavier -2.5 (2 units)
Ohio +2 vs. South Florida (1.5 units)
Bucknell @ Nevada Over 133 (1 unit)
Saint Louis vs. Michigan State 1H Under 57 (1 unit)
Cincinnati vs. Florida State Under 128.5 (1 unit)
(Live) Georgetown -6.5 (1 unit)
(Prop) Kwamain Mitchell Points + Assists Over 16.5 (0.75 units) +105
(Prop) Creighton/North Carolina Over 13 Three-Pointers Made (0.75 units) -115


2011-2012 Postseason YTD: 22-21 (+2.3 units)

Monday Leans:
Wyoming +2.5, Penn PK, Princeton +7

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JFen31
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#64
Posted: 3/18/2012 10:35:06 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by bogey533:

Now if you look at the answer you gave me on the X game you will see how accurate you are. Everything you wrote in that article  was 100% correct. I think instead of dreaming about woman at night you have basketballs flying around in your unconscious mind.




Believe it or not I do have a girlfriend of 2+ years, but she'll be the first to tell you my mind is thinking about basketball quite a bit. Hard to believe it's all over in two weeks...
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JFen31
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#65
Posted: 3/18/2012 10:58:33 PM
Middle attempt:

Cincinnati vs. Florida State 2H Over 68.5 (0.5 units)
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#66
Posted: 3/19/2012 3:20:07 AM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by JFen31:

3/18 Final Card
Lehigh vs. Xavier -2.5 (2 units)
Ohio +2 vs. South Florida (1.5 units)
Bucknell @ Nevada Over 133 (1 unit)
Saint Louis vs. Michigan State 1H Under 57 (1 unit)
Cincinnati vs. Florida State Under 128.5 (1 unit)
(Live) Georgetown -6.5 (1 unit)
(Prop) Kwamain Mitchell Points + Assists Over 16.5 (0.75 units) +105
(Prop) Creighton/North Carolina Over 13 Three-Pointers Made (0.75 units) -115


2011-2012 Postseason YTD: 22-21 (+2.3 units)

Monday Leans:
Wyoming +2.5, Penn PK, Princeton +7

been following your plays once in awhile...like your write ups... but was wondering how you come up with your record..i followed you on  saturday and had you at 2-9 for the day which is what i went using your plays....at least i thought you had nine plays saturday......you probably dont  count your live plays in your record......but was just  wondering?

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#67
Posted: 3/19/2012 9:34:25 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by JFen31:

Middle attempt:

Cincinnati vs. Florida State 2H Over 68.5 (0.5 units)

 

Do you think NC State at +4000 is a decent long term play to win it all. Seems like they are playing the best. Your thoughts would be greatly appreciated

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JFen31
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#68
Posted: 3/19/2012 9:38:26 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by gd2436:

been following your plays once in awhile...like your write ups... but was wondering how you come up with your record..i followed you on  saturday and had you at 2-9 for the day which is what i went using your plays....at least i thought you had nine plays saturday......you probably dont  count your live plays in your record......but was just  wondering?



3-7 by my count including the 0.5 unit prop and live plays. The way I tabulate the "record" when making those smaller plays is to add them up at the end. For example, 3 losses and 1 win on 0.5 unit plays is 0-1...3 wins and 1 loss is 1-0. It's all relative to the "standard" 1 unit structure.
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JFen31
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#69
Posted: 3/19/2012 9:39:17 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by del420:

 

Do you think NC State at +4000 is a decent long term play to win it all. Seems like they are playing the best. Your thoughts would be greatly appreciated



Not bad value, especially with Marshall in doubt for UNC. I'd take the Pack straight up with Marshall not in the lineup, but getting by Kansas would be a tall order. Certainly worth a few bucks in my eyes.
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