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Author: [NFL Betting] Topic: You are a crazy degenerate....
TRAIN69
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#76
Posted: 11/20/2012 9:46:54 PM
Damn Van. I turn my back for 2 seconds and the haters are after you now.
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Getty3
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#77
Posted: 11/20/2012 9:56:41 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by mrquija27:

I like this.  But you cant argue that many said the books over adjusted for A. Smith. and technically these people who bet SF at 3.5 beat the line.  No?   I assume you will say no because they did not beat the closing line.  But why does that matter they got the best available line period with value on it.  Gotta give credit where it is do.  Those who said Kaper was gonna be just as good if not better than Smith beat the line in my eyes.

Of course they did. SF + Alex Smith = -7. SF - Alex Smith = -3.5. Anyone who thought that Smith wasn't worth 3.5 points and acted accordingly, beat the line. 
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#78
Posted: 11/20/2012 10:03:32 PM
True....But who knew he would look like the next Dan Marino...
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#79
Posted: 11/20/2012 11:30:49 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Slobbasaurus:

Vanzack, I haven't followed your American football picks, but you are the man w/ Soccer.  You tore garbage up in the Euros the past summer.  Keep up the good work.



If I received a nickel every time someone say vanzack tore garbage up in the Euros, I would be a millionaire now.

[Quote: Originally Posted by Irish_Tim]
Results:
15 - 11.5 - 3 WLP +4.62 units

1. Greece +.5 at +112 1 unit - WIN
2. Russia to win at +128 for 3 units - WIN
3. Dutch -170 for 2 units - LOSS
4. Germany -.5 -105 for 1 unit - WIN
5. Germany under 2.5 -107 for 1 unit - WIN
6. Italy +.5 and +1 -105 for 2.5 units - WIN
7. Croatia -.5 +120 for 1.5 units - WIN
8. France PK -120 5 units - PUSH
9. Swe/Ukr over 2 -126 3 units - WIN
10. Russia +142 3 units - LOSS
11. Czech PK and -.5 +108 1.5 units - WIN
12. Portugal -.5 +102 for 2 units - WIN
13. Italy Pk and -.5 for 4 units - HALF LOSS
14. Spain -1.5 -110 for 2 units - WIN
15. Ukr/Fra over 2 -120 3 units - PUSH
16. Sweden +.5 -130 1 unit - LOSS
17. Rus/Gre - No bet
18. Pol/Cze - No bet
19. Ger/Den over 2.5 -115 for 2 units - WIN
20. Portugal PK +103 4 units - WIN
21. Spain -140 for 2 units - WIN
22. Ireland +1.5 -115 1 unit - LOSS
23.France -150 for 2.5 units - LOSS
24Under 2.5 -115 for 2 units.WIN
25 Czech +.5 +115 1 unit.LOSS
26 Greece / Germany under 2.5 -110 2 units.LOSS
27 France +.5 +115 in 90 mins for 3 units.LOSS
28 Italy big tomorrow - 4 units in regulation time at a PK,  PUSH
29 and 2 units to advance.  WIN
30 Spain in 90 -100 for 2 unitsLOSS
31 Germany -.5 -105 to win in 90 for 2 units.LOSS
32 Italy to lift the cup at +145 for 3 units..LOSS

Futures:

Italy to win the tournament +1425. 2 unitsLOSS
England to come in last in group D anywhere from +500 to +600. 3 unitsLOSS
England not to win the group at -210. 2 unitsLOSS
England to go under 5.5 points in the group anywhere from PK to -150. 3 unitsLOSS
Ukraine to advance from group D +145. 2 unitsLOSS
Russia to win group A +170. 3 units LOSSRepublic of Ireland to finish last in Group C -125. 3 units. WIN
Denmark to finish last in group B -167. 2 units.LOSS

Results:
1 - 7 WL -18.29 units


Final Record
16 - 18.5 - 3 WLP -13.67 units



Please kindly explain how exactly is the above tearing garbage up?
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#80
Posted: 11/20/2012 11:39:43 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Livan33:

As Slobbasaurus said, I'd be interested to hear your thoughts on CL today Van, but certainly don't blame you if you don't want to share.




Vanzack simply can't resist the spotlight. He has said many times that he doesn't like to post plays yet he continues to do so. Baffling, isn't it?
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rr207
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#81
Posted: 11/20/2012 11:51:06 PM
This was the easiest week in the nfl season.  I went 14-0 
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#82
Posted: 11/20/2012 11:55:39 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by vanzack:

Thanks livan.

Cl today....

Barca -1.5 -125
Lille bate over 2.5 -105
Chelsea +.5 +120
Braga pk and -.5 +101
Bayern val over 2.5 -128



Haha I like how you finally include the line and juice. Cute.

On to grading.

 Barca -1.5 -125
Lille bate over 2.5 -105
Chelsea +.5 +120
Braga pk and -.5 +101
Bayern val over 2.5 -128

I suppose all for 1u each? Doubt you use kelly criterion anyway.

1-4 -3.33 units

Vanzack's record CL posted on covers
*4-1 +3units
*3-2 +1unit
1-4 -3.33units

ytd 8-7 +0.67units

*plays are graded with no juice attached

Good luck buddy. Like you loved to say, I will be watching this system closely.
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Crashdavis565
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#83
Posted: 11/21/2012 6:35:30 AM
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#84
Posted: 11/21/2012 11:40:05 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Irish_Tim:



Haha I like how you finally include the line and juice. Cute.

On to grading.

 Barca -1.5 -125
Lille bate over 2.5 -105
Chelsea +.5 +120
Braga pk and -.5 +101
Bayern val over 2.5 -128

I suppose all for 1u each? Doubt you use kelly criterion anyway.

1-4 -3.33 units

Vanzack's record CL posted on covers
*4-1 +3units
*3-2 +1unit
1-4 -3.33units

ytd 8-7 +0.67units

*plays are graded with no juice attached

Good luck buddy. Like you loved to say, I will be watching this system closely.

Dude, get off Van's person.  
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#85
Posted: 11/21/2012 11:45:21 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by t6rider:

van, I had a question regarding betting halftimes in College and Pro Football. I have been putting a lot of stock in Pinnacle's opening numbers for halftimes. I will often sit their refreshing and watching the money fluctuate, or see if they actually move the numbers.



I live in Las Vegas and use William.US on my iPhone, so I don't have any other outlets. I will sometimes see a difference between 1-3 points on the sides and even some of the totals. When I see Pinnacle stand pat on a number, where William Hill will move the line, I have been hammering the side that Pinnacle won't move off of.



My best example of this was the Thursday night game between Clemson and Wake Forest. Pinnacle closed at Clemson -4.5 +101 for the 2nd half, where William Hill had Clemson -6 -130. I sided with Wake Forest +6 at +110. Wake Forest won the 2nd half 7-6.



Sorry for the ramble. My question is do you put any merit into something like this when Pinnacle takes a stand on a number so to speak? Is it just a coincidence? There have been quite a few occasions of games like this, and it hits more often than not. I also understand that WilliamHill seems to be on the square side here which is okay for what I'm trying to do, since I'm always getting the better number.




Somehow I've stumbled upon this thread and kept reading, but let me address this.

Working in the sportsbook industry, I can assure you the juice on a pinnacle side/total for a major sport such as NBA, NFL, NCAAF, or NCAAB is more often than not a winner.  Definitely over 58% of the time.

If Pinnacle closes with a team -5 -111, it will more often than not win.  I don't have the numbers in front of because I am not at work, but it is very similar to what you are talking about.  If you follow the Pinnacle juice, you will end up ahead.  You just have to make sure you are betting at the last second, and getting the same number.
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#86
Posted: 11/21/2012 12:30:02 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by sharpstick:



Somehow I've stumbled upon this thread and kept reading, but let me address this.

Working in the sportsbook industry, I can assure you the juice on a pinnacle side/total for a major sport such as NBA, NFL, NCAAF, or NCAAB is more often than not a winner.  Definitely over 58% of the time.

If Pinnacle closes with a team -5 -111, it will more often than not win.  I don't have the numbers in front of because I am not at work, but it is very similar to what you are talking about.  If you follow the Pinnacle juice, you will end up ahead.  You just have to make sure you are betting at the last second, and getting the same number.

Your example is also for a 2H?  Or are you referring to a full game?  You are basically saying to take the fav when pinnacle won't move off a number and the juice rises to a point that other books are moving the line.  
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#87
Posted: 11/21/2012 1:17:16 PM
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#88
Posted: 11/21/2012 1:29:38 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by sharpstick:



Somehow I've stumbled upon this thread and kept reading, but let me address this.

Working in the sportsbook industry, I can assure you the juice on a pinnacle side/total for a major sport such as NBA, NFL, NCAAF, or NCAAB is more often than not a winner.  Definitely over 58% of the time.

If Pinnacle closes with a team -5 -111, it will more often than not win.  I don't have the numbers in front of because I am not at work, but it is very similar to what you are talking about.  If you follow the Pinnacle juice, you will end up ahead.  You just have to make sure you are betting at the last second, and getting the same number.

Are you saying that if you bet the side that has the heavier juice at pinnacle right before the event starts on a major sport that you will hit 58% or better?  Please clarify.

If that is what you are saying I know why you don't have the numbers in front of you.

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#89
Posted: 11/21/2012 2:05:02 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Hizay:

Are you saying that if you bet the side that has the heavier juice at pinnacle right before the event starts on a major sport that you will hit 58% or better?  Please clarify.

If that is what you are saying I know why you don't have the numbers in front of you.



That is exactly what I am saying.  I don't have it in front of me because I am not at work.  This is all stuff our people at work have been following.

A majority of books move off this.  If Pinnacle is -5 -110 when they are usually -104, -105, -106 or whatever as their normal vig, other books will go to -5.5.  It is very beneficial if you have a local, or a low key offshore than doesn't move solely based off the Pinnacle juice.

I try and follow it as often as I can.  And Pinnacle lines are moving till the last second before the game starts.  That is why it is important to wait till the end.
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#90
Posted: 11/21/2012 2:05:35 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Swoop:


Your example is also for a 2H?  Or are you referring to a full game?  You are basically saying to take the fav when pinnacle won't move off a number and the juice rises to a point that other books are moving the line.  


For the last 8 months we have been tracking full games only.  Not first half or half time.
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#91
Posted: 11/21/2012 2:29:39 PM
Good stuff sharp, I have often wondered this.
I have to admit, I have taken the WRONG SIDE of this movement and lost many times over the last year. What you are saying makes sense.
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#92
Posted: 11/21/2012 2:41:22 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by sharpstick:



That is exactly what I am saying.  I don't have it in front of me because I am not at work.  This is all stuff our people at work have been following.

A majority of books move off this.  If Pinnacle is -5 -110 when they are usually -104, -105, -106 or whatever as their normal vig, other books will go to -5.5.  It is very beneficial if you have a local, or a low key offshore than doesn't move solely based off the Pinnacle juice.

I try and follow it as often as I can.  And Pinnacle lines are moving till the last second before the game starts.  That is why it is important to wait till the end.

Thanks Sharp for not only enlightening me on how easy it can be to win at sportsbetting, but anyone else who reads this thread.  I predict a lot of casinos and off shores out of business at this time next year.

That is is the Myans weren't right, however I am pulling for them.

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#93
Posted: 11/21/2012 3:00:19 PM

And just to clarify for myself and everyone else.

NBA game Team A @ Team B

Line is Team B -5 -112 at pinnacle, but I can still get

Team B -5 -110 at Bookmaker

If I repeat this process when it is available to me over time I will hit 58%+?

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#94
Posted: 11/21/2012 3:01:43 PM
Sorry for the 3rd post but I can't edit, also assuming this is right before tip.
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#95
Posted: 11/21/2012 4:01:20 PM
sharpstick.  Thanks. I have only been using this for Halftime Wagers at the moment. The best thing about it, like I described, is I get a much better number each and every time, whether it be a side or total. I still think it could all be a coincidence, but their have been very few games per week, that I find a huge discrepancy in numbers.
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#96
Posted: 11/21/2012 4:13:17 PM
For me, I really haven't paid too much attention to full games and the vig, because their can be a difference in just about every single game. I have kept some notes regarding Pinnacle's 1st half College totals. Saturday morning you will get some steam on a total, or totals the last few hours before kickoff for the full game.



Sometimes it seems as on some games they won't move the first half total at all. If the game total moves to 56, 56.5, or 57, they leave the 1st half at 27.5, with minimal juice. Those couple games the 1st half has stayed under the 1st half total. I don't know, I'm probably reading too much into this, but it's been working and since I can't pick games on my own, I would rather be siding with Pinnacle.
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#97
Posted: 11/21/2012 4:52:31 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Hizay:

Thanks Sharp for not only enlightening me on how easy it can be to win at sportsbetting, but anyone else who reads this thread.  I predict a lot of casinos and off shores out of business at this time next year.

That is is the Myans weren't right, however I am pulling for them.



All the Myans did was stop when the astrological age (Pieces) was over which is the one we are currently in that is identified best with religion and war. We're going into Aquarius now which will be about self-love and enlightenment. There will be no end of the world so cheer up pal and get ready for some fascinating things that go beyond electronics and sports. I know its hard to imagine.
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