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Author: [Las Vegas] Topic: Taking my talents to Cantor
HardballHarry send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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#51
Posted: 11/7/2012 2:02:17 PM

First off, if you don't (or are not willing to), give identifying info, you have to do things old school with the cash and carry, shoe-leather approach.

To leverage the current technology though, you need to let people know who you are. It's just the rules of the game if you want to play that way. Especially if you want the security and efficiency that comes with it.

Anyway, you hit the nail on the head. The real drawback is getting backed off. Cantor swears up and down they won't do that. I've bet $15k they won't. BUT, that was before the recent events. Now, I'm nervous. My plan doesn't work if I can only invest $500 or $1000 per event. I need to get action down to make money. I'll know soon enough, plays start in less than a week. I have a plan B if they have lowered their opening limits.

 

Ultimately, I see a type of day-trading operation where traders could rent Nevada space and then make their investment decisions legally and safely from anywhere. Then just have their Nevada office execute their investments. The trader is always (and is the only one), in control of his/her bankroll and investment decisions.

Anybody else see the potential there? The numbers could work for even the average day trader.

 

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#52
Posted: 11/7/2012 7:35:18 PM
GL ... I hope it works for you
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max-value send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#53
Posted: 11/8/2012 4:23:00 PM
get em Harry...keep us all updated...If things work out the way I want them...I will be doing the same thing you are come next NFL/NBA season
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#54
Posted: 11/11/2012 3:26:28 PM

I am hesitant to list the first (or any plays), but I will and see how it goes:

 

Cleveland Cavaliers +10

 

do or die now.

 

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#55
Posted: 11/12/2012 12:41:19 PM

Enough of that posting experiment. I'm going to lay low for awhile. I'll let you guys know how it's going after a little time goes by.

Early observations/adjustments though:

I was told a month ago by Cantor that I would see opening lines by 7pm and that the limits would be $2000 automatically but that I would get $2500 just for asking. The reality: The lines come out overnight and they are not even all listed. And worse, the lines have limits of $1000 for sides. Totals aren't even offered then. At least when the lines come out at around 8:30am on gameday, the limits are much higher and all the games are listed with totals.

So, (without much choice), I've adjusted to waiting until the gameday opening line. Of course, that means that there is a line out there in the market for 16 hours before I get to play it. This will have the effect of likely reducing the overall number of plays I have but hopefully the impact will be manageable. Actually, doing it this way greatly streamlines the process of getting the plays in and allows my business partner to productively use the rest of the day without having to constantly be checking to see if the lines are out for tomorrow yet. The whole process takes less than 30 minutes.

Now I have to leave it up to my algorithms and see what happens.

Nothing more I can do at this point.

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#56
Posted: 11/19/2012 3:20:10 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by HardballHarry:

First off, if you don't (or are not willing to), give identifying info, you have to do things old school with the cash and carry, shoe-leather approach.

To leverage the current technology though, you need to let people know who you are. It's just the rules of the game if you want to play that way. Especially if you want the security and efficiency that comes with it.

Anyway, you hit the nail on the head. The real drawback is getting backed off. Cantor swears up and down they won't do that. I've bet $15k they won't. BUT, that was before the recent events. Now, I'm nervous. My plan doesn't work if I can only invest $500 or $1000 per event. I need to get action down to make money. I'll know soon enough, plays start in less than a week. I have a plan B if they have lowered their opening limits.

 

Ultimately, I see a type of day-trading operation where traders could rent Nevada space and then make their investment decisions legally and safely from anywhere. Then just have their Nevada office execute their investments. The trader is always (and is the only one), in control of his/her bankroll and investment decisions.

Anybody else see the potential there? The numbers could work for even the average day trader.

 

Why rent a space when any person can act a a proxy. Just set up your cantor account, then call or text me and I can place the bets for you when ever you want.

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#57
Posted: 11/19/2012 9:22:43 AM
After all the thinking, research, and due diligence it stills comes down to Discipline and Money Management and knowing the Sport that you place wagers on..  Sometimes, following and knowing certain teams can turn losing days into winning days..  Yet, there's nothing like instilling the basics...  I day trade, without knowing how to properly read charts and I see that winning is a matter of making sure you are not underfunded, wagering only a certain percentage/Money management and discipline that mimics that of a robot.. Not letting emotions (fear, euphoria, greed, nervousness) affect you..    The things mentioned are the main course, everything else is just salad..      Good Luck.. 
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#58
Posted: 11/22/2012 2:10:00 PM
Hardballharry...after one or more of Cantor's employees got in trouble...do you now see any changes in the way Cantor conducts there Vegas sport-betting operation?
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HardballHarry send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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#59
Posted: 11/23/2012 11:21:44 AM
I wasn't doing things when he was there. But I do know that what I was told when he was there is not true after he was gone (availability of overnight numbers, overnight limits). That sucks too because that was my main advantage. It has already cost me a few plays. I'm hoping to at least get some valuable comps from these guys.
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#60
Posted: 11/24/2012 7:42:47 AM
Hardball,

it was a fascinating thread to read....but you as an American wouldn't be easier just go live in Canada (has one of the best city's in the world to live - Vancouver) and open a Pinnacle account? All the US poker pros playing at Poker Stars move there to continue playing online poker!!

Pinnacle lines are 3 to 4% better all the time and you don't have to worry about those kind of limits (they are getting huge among Europeans pros) and for sure you don't have to sweat for payouts.....

$15K for 5 mounts to set up that....that's half of what u are willing to lose....it doesn't makes any sense!
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#61
Posted: 11/24/2012 1:48:47 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by 2SpreadKiller:

Hardball,

it was a fascinating thread to read....but you as an American wouldn't be easier just go live in Canada (has one of the best city's in the world to live - Vancouver) and open a Pinnacle account? All the US poker pros playing at Poker Stars move there to continue playing online poker!!

Pinnacle lines are 3 to 4% better all the time and you don't have to worry about those kind of limits (they are getting huge among Europeans pros) and for sure you don't have to sweat for payouts.....

$15K for 5 mounts to set up that....that's half of what u are willing to lose....it doesn't makes any sense!

Spreadkiller..thats a very interesting option...But.. wouldn't one have to give up there US citizenship to become Canadian resident...I heard pinnacle will ask you for documentation  proving you are a canadian citizen ...wouldnt it be easier to find a trustworthy person/s that lives in canada and pay them a small fee to open a pinnicle account and put plays in for me?
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#62
Posted: 11/24/2012 7:56:27 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by max-value:


Spreadkiller..thats a very interesting option...But.. wouldn't one have to give up there US citizenship to become Canadian resident...I heard pinnacle will ask you for documentation  proving you are a canadian citizen ...wouldnt it be easier to find a trustworthy person/s that lives in canada and pay them a small fee to open a pinnicle account and put plays in for me?

u don't have to give up your citizenship. Just rent a house, get an utility bill in ur name and u r good to go!
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#63
Posted: 12/2/2012 6:35:36 AM
where are u hardball?
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#64
Posted: 12/2/2012 6:53:38 PM

Good Luck harry

 

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#65
Posted: 12/7/2012 5:38:02 PM
He is gone looks like the dream turned into a nightmare

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#66
Posted: 12/8/2012 1:10:12 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by mrbuddasac:

He is gone looks like the dream turned into a nightmare


it was just a dream!!!
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#67
Posted: 12/9/2012 1:04:44 PM
I had this feeling immediately when he said he hired his uncle and that he was not intelligent...I was like wtf and right then I saw the torpedo coming at his ship.
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#68
Posted: 12/10/2012 11:53:34 AM
What a joke. Real pros never write stupid garbage like this. Cant even make it a month before he flakes out. Gets old.
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#69
Posted: 12/10/2012 8:10:20 PM
lol. cantor sucks. go to wynn for early numbers.
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#70
Posted: 12/10/2012 8:52:34 PM

thats the problem with vegas books. most have no overnite lines. they want to hold all the advantages. cantor only has an app.it's terrible,constantly locks up,resets and sometimes is totally blank. it's really a piece of crap.

stations and southpoint are really the only truest overnite lines,they are open till 4:30am everyday.

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#71
Posted: 12/11/2012 7:45:50 PM
Wow....  Was it all bs?!?!? Hmmm... Sounds like it to me.  I should have look at the end of this thread before I read all his BS, only to find he last a week and a half.  what a waste of time. :(
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#72
Posted: 12/12/2012 12:19:59 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Diamondjake:

What a joke. Real pros never write stupid garbage like this. Cant even make it a month before he flakes out. Gets old.

He's not a pro. He's trying to become one...

Let's get a bankroll update from the OP...
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#73
Posted: 12/13/2012 2:01:39 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Plisskin76:

lol. cantor sucks. go to wynn for early numbers.

how early for wynn?...do they have overnights like staions/southpoint?
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#74
Posted: 12/14/2012 10:54:44 PM
I should have quit reading when he said-
I need a 100k bankroll and if I lose 25% at anytime I am out.
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#75
Posted: 12/14/2012 10:56:55 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by HardballHarry:

I'm excited to get started, but I admit I'm a little nervous. It doesn’t matter how much money you have, losing some is not fun. In this venture, my max. loss could be as high as $52k. I am spending $15k on the back-office and I have a max investment loss of $37k (25% of bank). But, to lose the max, the venture would have to go the full season and right at the end I would get down the 25% and call it quits. If I'm down 25% at any time prior, I'd close the operation down and save some of the overhead. But I’d still lose over 40k, so there wouldn’t be much savings. Those are the two worst case scenarios and there are many more favorable outcomes. And since I’m investing less than 2% of my bank on any given outcome, I feel pretty confident that I can withstand the ups and downs that I surely will encounter.

The only problem I see with this business, is that IF it does work and it is successful, the sky IS NOT the limit. At this level, you are making max-limit opening number bets. What book is going to let you bet more at that number when you are already proving to be good at it? Most would probably backed you off. Don’t forget, I’m only talking about the opening number, you may be able to get more down later, but that may not be where your edge is. For me, the following quote is applicable:

 

When you bet the opening line, you are betting against the sportsbook, when you bet the closing line, you are betting against the “market”.

 

Setting the opening line necessarily has to include subjective/purposefully biased opinions on the part of the person putting that virgin line out. This creates a moment in time when you as a player and the book can have slightly diverging interests. This is ALWAYS going to be your best opportunity to take advantage of these differing goals. Especially since the player has the option of passing on a game. My goal is to find small differences in only about a quarter of the games. And then to be right only 53.5% of the time. My historical avg is slightly over 55%, but at 53.5% a strong profitability argument can be made.

Cantor says they're different. They say they'll let you make the posted limit bets and they won’t back you off. Regardless of how you do. I have heard/read many interviews with them claiming that they want ALL players. They say that they'll raise the limits of players from the posted ones just by asking. I’m hoping to be able to put them to that test in future seasons.


Why the hell do you need a 100k stake then. Just need what you are going to lose?  
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